Fangraphs: Whose Contract Extensions Should Teams Tackle with Urgency?

[Can_of_corn]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whose-contract-extensions-should-teams-tackle-with-urgency/

Adley is the first name mentioned.  Part of the section is below.

Quote

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles – Six years, $141 million

Rutschman is the first player for whom the MLBPA’s new service time rule, giving the top two Rookie of the Year candidates a full year of service time, comes into play (Julio Rodríguez, Spencer Strider, and Michael Harris II all signed extensions). This means the O’s get four more years of Rutschman’s services rather than five, and a little more urgency is in order. Baltimore probably should have been in full-court press to sign him to an extension a year ago, but with Rutschman now established in the majors as one of the elite catchers and that much closer to arbitration, he’s going to be more expensive than he would be in 2022.

 

[wildcard]

I am not against extending Adley but I think the first guy they extend is likely to Means.

[Going Underground]

Posted this also in the Adley thread.

https://twitter.com/afkostka/status/1656023756966436905?s=20

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Going Underground

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I am not against extending Adley but I think the first guy they extend is likely to Means.

You might be right but I don't think Elias is in any hurry to extend someone who is still out with injury.

I am expecting the O's to not give any extensions during this season.

[Frobby]

I don’t think there’s a chance on God’s green earth that the O’s are going to pay Adley $141 mm for one pre-Arb season, three Arb years and two FA years.   

Sean Murphy just signed away his three Arb years and three FA years for $73 mm, and gave the Braves an option for another year at $15 mm.

J.T. Realmuto earned about $63 mm in the comparable years of his career.  

Buster Posey earned $100 mm in those same years, despite having the advantage of being a Super 2.

So if Adley gets $140 mm from the O’s, it won’t be on a six-year deal that starts with pre-Arb 3.   

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You might be right but I don't think Elias is in any hurry to extend someone who is still out with injury.

I am expecting the O's to not give any extensions during this season.

I don’t think the timing on any one extension is necessarily dependent on when any other extension is done, or that they have to go in any particular order.   As to Means, I doubt the O’s would consider any extension until he’s back on the mound and they see what he’s got.   I think they could do Adley right now, but it depends entirely on finding a structure (price, length, options) that both sides are comfortable with.   There’s no telling if that will happen. 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You might be right but I don't think Elias is in any hurry to extend someone who is still out with injury.

I am expecting the O's to not give any extensions during this season.

Yes, I agree.  I still think Means is the first guy extended and it will happen in the off season.   That is my guess.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the timing on any one extension is necessarily dependent on when any other extension is done, or that they have to go in any particular order.   As to Means, I doubt the O’s would consider any extension until he’s back on the mound and they see what he’s got.   I think they could do Adley right now, but it depends entirely on finding a structure (price, length, options) that both sides are comfortable with.   There’s no telling if that will happen. 

I agree Means has to be back and pitching well.  I just think there is a better chance the O's extend Means than Adley this off season.   Adley will cost a lot.   Means will be 2 or 3 years.

I think the odds are low that the O's extend Adley during the 2023 season.

Edited May 9, 2023 by wildcard

[sportsfan8703]

Maybe we negotiate over the ASB. 

[dtk9119]

Regardless of his slump right now, AR is a generational talent, and it's ridiculous that Angelos/Elias has not locked him long term yet. Esp when you compare as the article does to Rodriguez, et al. To me, AR is more valuable than any of those players. His price tag is only gonna keep going up up up from here.

That said, if he comes back and pitches well, I also agree Means should be locked up as well as we are already short on young pitching talent signed long term as it is...

[Aristotelian]

Adley extension would worry me because he is a catcher. I have to think we already own his prime years. Still it would be a great message to send to the fanbase and he could be a great 1B too. 

The sneaky value candidate might be Gunnar but he would also have the most risk.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there’s a chance on God’s green earth that the O’s are going to pay Adley $141 mm for one pre-Arb season, three Arb years and two FA years.   

Sean Murphy just signed away his three Arb years and three FA years for $73 mm, and gave the Braves an option for another year at $15 mm.

J.T. Realmuto earned about $63 mm in the comparable years of his career.  

Buster Posey earned $100 mm in those same years, despite having the advantage of being a Super 2.

So if Adley gets $140 mm from the O’s, it won’t be on a six-year deal that starts with pre-Arb 3.   

 

 

I kind of agree with this - I was thinking 8/140, which basically gives Posey around 20 million for having an extra arb year.

[Sports Guy]

 

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I am not against extending Adley but I think the first guy they extend is likely to Means.

Why would a Means extension be a priority?

Locking up some young position players is far more important. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

Why would a Means extension be a priority?

Locking up some young position players is far more important. 

Less of a commitment in terms of both years and dollars.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Can_of_corn