8 turns through the rotation (sort of)

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would guess Wells and GrayRod are at the top of that list.  Which is worrisome, because that could be the O's 2 best starters going forward.  Maybe they can skip a start or two, at different times of course.  Wells just looks like a horse.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they do some things to try to keep the innings down.  Maybe just have them be openers. Can steal some needed days off around the AS break too.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Most of the starters had a bad April.   Maybe it was them  getting stretched out.  Maybe the weather. Maybe because they were playing bad teams and they played to that level.   But In May when the competition got tough they stepped up.  The team is is 5-3 vs the Braves, Rays and two vs the Pirates.   Ben said the starters  have a 1.74 ERA in those games.  

I think we are seeing a confidence group of starters reaching what they are capable of doing.   I  posted before the season that I expected:

Wells 3.38 like he did in the 1st half of 2022

Bradish 3.28 like he did in the 2nd half of 2022

Kremer 3.23  like he did last year

Gibson 3.96  because of the defense, Adley, the wall and Holt plus what he did in Texas in 2021

GRod 3.50 because he was the best starter  in the minors last season

I still think all that is possible and Hall is near ready if needed,  Irvin is ready, and Rom is a few starts from being ready.  

Don't underestimate these guys.   They are on a mission.

I fall somewhere in between thinking that these first 8 turns are as good as it gets and your unbridled optimism.  Also, you have to factor in that MLB teams are scoring 0.43 more runs a game compared to last year.  I’d say there’s almost zero chance of your projections for Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez to come true.  With the season 1/4 over, Kremer would need something like a 2.70 ERA the rest of the year to get to 3.23, Bradish would need about a 2.95 to get to 3.28, and Grayson would need about a 3.00 to get to 3.50.   And, you’ve noted in the past that Gibson tends to pitch better in the first half of the season, so he’s not likely to throw the 3.80 he’d need the rest of the way to get to 3.96.

Fortunately, I don’t think we need overly optimistic scenarios like that to keep winning and make the playoffs.  Putting up a starters’ ERA that is closer to 4.00 than 5.00 the rest of the way is probably all we need to do.  And I think they can do that.  

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if they do some things to try to keep the innings down.  Maybe just have them be openers. Can still some needed days off around the AS break too.

When this run ends, I am curious to see if lefty openers come into the mix at some point for opponents with excellent LH Bats in the top half of the lineup.      Akin, Hall, maybe Means or Povich later - could picture all contributing in that role.    

Gibson is too old plus has a different job description, Grayson is too good, so for me its can Wells, Bradish or Kremer navigate a routine change when the time comes?

You can't do the Once Through the Order stuff all year, but you can for a month.     In a way Hyde having Hall and Means in his day to day mix with the current top tier pitchers is as mouthwatering as another 2-3 elite Bats in the lineup.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I fall somewhere in between thinking that these first 8 turns are as good as it gets and your unbridled optimism.  Also, you have to factor in that MLB teams are scoring 0.43 more runs a game compared to last year.  I’d say there’s almost zero chance of your projections for Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez to come true.  With the season 1/4 over, Kremer would need something like a 2.70 ERA the rest of the year to get to 3.23, Bradish would need about a 2.95 to get to 3.28, and Grayson would need about a 3.00 to get to 3.50.   And, you’ve noted in the past that Gibson tends to pitch better in the first half of the season, so he’s not likely to throw the 3.80 he’d need the rest of the way to get to 3.96.

It should be fun watching them achieve those numbers.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It should be fun watching them achieve those numbers.

Your numbers?  Yes, that would be fun. Won’t happen, but it would be fun if it did   Keep dreaming.  I’ll be really happy if even one of your predictions for Kremer/Bradish/Rodriguez/Gibson came true, let alone all four.

Incidentally, last year the O’s had a 4.32 stsrters’ ERA in the first 39 games, 4.36 the rest of the way,
 

[Fiver6565]

45 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

When this run ends, I am curious to see if lefty openers come into the mix at some point for opponents with excellent LH Bats in the top half of the lineup.      Akin, Hall, maybe Means or Povich later - could picture all contributing in that role.    

Gibson is too old plus has a different job description, Grayson is too good, so for me its can Wells, Bradish or Kremer navigate a routine change when the time comes?

You can't do the Once Through the Order stuff all year, but you can for a month.     In a way Hyde having Hall and Means in his day to day mix with the current top tier pitchers is as mouthwatering as another 2-3 elite Bats in the lineup.

Wells already came in off routine in one game, when Bradish got hurt, and that was without pre-planning. He could certainly be a guy you pair with an opener to buy 1-2 innings, then try to get 4-5 out of him instead of 6-7. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Gibson is doing what Lyles did. Not better but not worse. 

That’s only true if you ignore the fact that MLB teams are scoring 0.43 runs/game more this year.  Lyles’ 4.42 ERA last year was good for an 89 ERA+.  Gibson’s 4.40 translates to a 99 ERA+.   So, I’d say Gibson has been a definite upgrade.  So far - still time for that to change.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

When this run ends, I am curious to see if lefty openers come into the mix at some point for opponents with excellent LH Bats in the top half of the lineup.      Akin, Hall, maybe Means or Povich later - could picture all contributing in that role.    

Gibson is too old plus has a different job description, Grayson is too good, so for me its can Wells, Bradish or Kremer navigate a routine change when the time comes?

You can't do the Once Through the Order stuff all year, but you can for a month.     In a way Hyde having Hall and Means in his day to day mix with the current top tier pitchers is as mouthwatering as another 2-3 elite Bats in the lineup.

I can't remember the O's ever doing the Opener thing. Feels like a missed opportunity, anything to help our starters.

[foxfield]

The big thing is there is still a long long way to go.  But as we near the quarter poll, I am really trying to enjoy what we are seeing and not worry so much about the micro management that we do a lot here.

To me the most exciting thing is this.  Other than Cano being virtually unhittable, and the smoking hot start of Mateo....very little of the O's success appears to be unsustainable.  Honestly, with the depth in positional talent and pitching...one could make an argument that the Orioles have a lot of room for improvement.  

I don't disagree with Frobby's C- or even the subsequent B- someone else posted.  I think that is a pretty good range.  Gunner is playing well, but still struggling.  Adley is so steady we almost take it for granted.  What I am getting at is the team with the second best record in baseball is really good and has room to improve and that should be exciting the heck out of everyone.

Am looking forward to three rookies in the lineup today as a test for the future.  Would be nice to see Adley get a full days rest.

I don't know where this season ends.  But I am very much enjoying the feeling of expecting to win and I am enjoying watching a team that expects to win.

Edited May 14, 2023 by foxfield

[now]

The way this rotation is shaping up, I think it's worth reconsidering the value of a so-called ace even in playoffs mode. Maybe it's more about group effort and "higher floor," even in the playoffs.

Looking back to the Oriole Way of years past might suggest a more balanced staff is just fine. Not to mention, being dealt a hand of four aces (1971)!

While Palmer was the undisputed ace over the long term, in any given year his contribution wasn't necessarily much better than that of the other starters.

1966: McNally, Palmer, Bunker, Barber
1969: Cuellar, McNally, Phoebus, Palmer
1970: Palmer, Cuellar, McNally
1971: Cuellar, Palmer, Dobson, McNally
1973: Palmer, Cuellar, McNally, Alexander
1974: Grimsley, Cuellar, McNally, Palmer
1979: Martinez, Flanagan, Stone, McGregor, Palmer
1983: McGregor, Davis, Boddicker, Martinez, Flanagan
1996: Mussina (ace at 4.81; Wells, Erickson & Coppinger all over 5)
1997: Mussina, Erickson, Key
2012: Chen, Hunter, Hammel, Gonzalez, Tillman
2014: Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez, Gausman
2016: Gausman, Tillman (with Jimenez, Gallardo, Wilson, and Wright all at 5.27 ERA or above!)

[Since1984]

10 hours ago, dystopia said:

It's going to be interesting when Means comes back assuming there are no injuries. Someone will have to go, but there's no standout candidate.

Still got a couple months before worrying about that though.

Unless there is an injury, I expect Means to follow Grayson, Wells, Hall as part of an opener strategy (Hall too). This will enable a longer stretch of good performances, while saving innings for the playoff competition 

[OriolesMagic83]

Need to get a better rotation.  If the O's somehow sneak into the playoffs, it will be a quick exit.  I would love to know what Elias' plan for getting good starting pitching is.  I think the O's need to steal one of the top pitching development brains from another organization, because what the O's/Elias is doing isn't working.