Ohtani Rental?

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Granted leaning into a devil's advocate position here, but it is possible 2023 is the only year Felix Bautista's arm doesn't explode, and Shohei Ohtani is part of some other AL or NL team that eliminates BAL in the tournament.     

Like a pick six in football, a playoff Club that acquires Ohtani also denies him to 11 tournament competitors.     Arguably the 2-month portfolio risk is less than with Snell or Hader because if he has an arm owie, maybe he's still the best hitter in the league.    The blister bears watching, but in the dog days Tyler Wells and Nate Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani have all been taxed heavily this season.

Ohtani is the alpha dog for 2023 performance, and its basic duty for Mike Elias to learn as best he can the price point for any of the world's best baseball players that could be available in the coming week, even if just to do a proper job with a memo and policy recommendation to John Angelos.

It adds another bench/matchup roster spot too.

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I would argue that a trade involving prospects (not named Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, and maybe Mayo) does not cede any piece/player/prospect that is not replaceable or any who would create an immediate longterm or short term need.

Westburg/Ortiz/Norby/Prieto/Hall/Beavers/Povich are not players/prospects who cannot be replaced or considered players with burgeoning superstar potential.

I have to think the Angels are asking for someone in the first tier of players you mention.  And like Just Regular alludes to, the irrational exuberance of the market will bid it there to block others.  

If we're only talking the second tier of players (specific players not withstanding), then I think we'll make that deal.  Not sure we'll ever know, but I'm pretty confident Elias is fine dealing from depth for a GOAT impact.

 

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I agree and if you look at a team like the Rays, they have never won a world series and they can't even fill their own home stadium even when they start out with the best record in baseball. 

Fans want a difference maker. It's what's best for business.

A bunch of unrelated things IMO.  And they certainly have some difference makers this year.

[Billy F-Face3]

As for the future and the pipeline, we need to look at rhe real source of our organizational depth.... That's the guys who identify talent and acquire them.

As long as we have Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal and their teams of evaluators and player development, then we will be in good shape to continue with a healthy pipeline. The current Orioles front office have proven themselves to be superior talent evaluators, especially when talking about amateur players turning pro. I.E. They got Gunnar Henderson is the 2nd round! How good is that!?!

Jud Fabian was also taken 68th. Another great pick!

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

As for the future and the pipeline, we need to look at rhe real source of our organizational depth.... That's the guys who identify talent and acquire them.

As long as we have Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal and their teams of evaluators and player development, then we will be in good shape to continue with a healthy pipeline. The current Orioles front office have proven themselves to be superior talent evaluators, especially when talking about amateur players turning pro. I.E. They got Gunnar Henderson is the 2nd round! How good is that!?!

Jud Fabian was also taken 68th. Another great pick!

*68th.  Correcting my typo

[sportsfan8703]

If we trade for ohtani then we might as well trade for Hader. Why leave a hole in the bullpen?  

[dzorange]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

THIS!

There will be a buzz/excitement/energy through this city/community/market that will be incredible.

I can almost guarantee that ticket and merch sales would sky rocket. Heck, I have already stated that if the O's were to somehow land Ohtani, I will make every effort to attend one game per series from that point through the rest of the season. And would definitely buy Ohtani jerseys for me and my son, like the very next day he is acquired.

This would also have the effect of season ticket sales for next season. Coming off of a deep postseason run with Ohtani, there would be so much buzz/juice/excitement heading into next season. This kind of acquisition would really change the franchises trajectory and it's standing within the game itself. 

If some feel that this is exaggeration, look at where the Astros are now compared to where they were when they acquired Verlander. It changed everything. 

I think ticket and merch sales will really spike in the upcoming weeks regardless, assuming the Orioles are still flirting with the best record in the AL. The attendance is going to spike in August, September and into the playoffs. 

There's a limit (the capacity of the stadium and well as the # of games remaining) to what Ohtani can draw. Baltimore will already sell out the stadium in the playoffs. I don't think the Orioles would have THAT much attendance to gain from getting Ohtani.

Edited July 25, 2023 by dzorange

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

It adds another bench/matchup roster spot too.

I have to think the Angels are asking for someone in the first tier of players you mention.  And like Just Regular alludes to, the irrational exuberance of the market will bid it there to block others.  

If we're only talking the second tier of players (specific players not withstanding), then I think we'll make that deal.  Not sure we'll ever know, but I'm pretty confident Elias is fine dealing from depth for a GOAT impact.

 

A bunch of unrelated things IMO.  And they certainly have some difference makers this year.

I don't see the bidding going the way that you project, not amongst the teams with the most prospects (especially if the Dodgers are excluded like the mostly likely will be). The Orioles, Reds, D-Backs, and Rays do not have financial infrastructures that can/will support giving away big time prospects, let alone for a 2 month-rental. The time has passed for the Angels to get the best package for Ohtani that they could have. Some of the traditional powers/buyers in the sport like the Yankees/Red Sox/Astros/Braves do not have the prospect capital to even enter the conversation.

It's possible that the Angels won't trade him. But if they do not, how are they going to sell Ohtani is signing with them in the offseason over the Dodgers (if that is the market he prefers)? Hey come back to this same sucky team that you couldn't even qualify for the postseason ONE SINGLE time in the last 6 years or sign with the Dodgers play with Mookie and Freeman with a team loaded with the most top 100 prospects in the sport and a team who makes the playoffs EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Which one would be more appealing to you?

[Billy F-Face3]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

*68th.  Correcting my typo

*67th.

Uhhh, I'm horrible typing on a cel phone 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we trade for ohtani then we might as well trade for Hader. Why leave a hole in the bullpen?  

Which pulls in the 'limited resources' debate too.  How much of the prospect depth is Elias comfortable trading away to tweak one playoff run?  These trade debates are endless circles.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, dzorange said:

I think ticket and merch sales will really spike in the upcoming weeks regardless, assuming the Orioles are still flirting with the best record in the AL. The attendance is going to spike in August, September and into the playoffs. 

There's a limit (the capacity of the stadium and well as the # of games remaining) to what Ohtani can draw. Baltimore will already sell out the stadium in the playoffs. I don't think the Orioles would have THAT much attendance to gain from getting Ohtani.

Ok I agree with the first part that sales are going to go up as we get closer to the postseason. But I think you a far underestimating the impact of what Ohtani would bring. I am not sure where you live, but I live in this market place. I live in one of the only areas (maybe the only in Central Maryland) that is majority people of Asian decent. I remember all of the Kim jerseys that I used to see and he wasn't even that good.

When you are talking about adding a megastar/supernova like Ohtani, the buzz/excitement/relevance will draw people who are not even that interested in the O's or baseball because it's what people will be talking about. And people will want to come and see who is this Ohtani guy that I've been seeing/reading/hearing so much about.

Again, I live in the community and attend many games, I think you are also underselling the capacity of the stadium. We got plenty of room! At the Dodgers games last week, for example, we had "good crowds" none exceeded 30,000.

Also, I can guarantee you that there will be so much more additional media coverage. Ohtani comes with his own contingent from Japan. There will be many Orioles Ohtani jerseys sold not only in Baltimore and amongst O's fans nationwide, but to all the Ohtani fans in the world (especially Japan).

[G54377]

The Orioles are probably an easy team for a casual fan to root for. If we got Ohtani, we'd probably be the overall "public darling". 

[Billy F-Face3]

I want 40k+ in the stands. If we get some added attendance because an international superstar, then that only helps to achieve that goal and it also increases demand for the tickets. And of course, the novelty of Ohtani t-shirts and jerseys etc are also quite appealing.

I just wonder if Ohtani would be willing to take a sip from the homer hose? Or would we wear his Sammurai helmet? 

[Malike]

Seeing a ton of Ohtani jerseys would be cool, but it's not putting more money into the teams coffers. MLB merch is a shared thing.

[btdart20]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't see the bidding going the way that you project, not amongst the teams with the most prospects (especially if the Dodgers are excluded like the mostly likely will be). The Orioles, Reds, D-Backs, and Rays do not have financial infrastructures that can/will support giving away big time prospects, let alone for a 2 month-rental. The time has passed for the Angels to get the best package for Ohtani that they could have. Some of the traditional powers/buyers in the sport like the Yankees/Red Sox/Astros/Braves do not have the prospect capital to even enter the conversation.

It's possible that the Angels won't trade him. But if they do not, how are they going to sell Ohtani is signing with them in the offseason over the Dodgers (if that is the market he prefers)? Hey come back to this same sucky team that you couldn't even qualify for the postseason ONE SINGLE time in the last 6 years or sign with the Dodgers play with Mookie and Freeman with a team loaded with the most top 100 prospects in the sport and a team who makes the playoffs EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Which one would be more appealing to you?

Angels have motive to trade, sure.  At least assuming they're not in the mix in a few days.

But the Reds, D-Backs, and Rays have interesting ML and MiLB options to trade too (and still not dip into their "untouchables").

[Greg Pappas]

I understand the differing points of view here.  

On one hand the purported cost of acquiring the living legend (and rental) Ohtani may disrupt Elias' plan to build and maintain a strong pipeline of talent that would likely ensure many years of contention.

On the other hand, in order to give us the best chance to win it all this season, there are those that believe that cost would likely be worth it.

This debate appears pretty straightforward.  The one caveat is the actual cost.  We don't know for sure either way what it would take. 

Cowser, Ortiz, and Povich? Kjerstad, Basallo, and Hall? Too much? Mayo, Norby, Wagner, and Showalter? Not enough? The possibilities are endless.

The point I'm making is that there is a line you would not cross in regards to player/prospect cost and defining that line helps set your POV. 

Instead of saying you would or wouldn't do it, show us where your line is at.  What is the max value you're willing to sacrifice? 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Malike]

Just now, Greg Pappas said:

I understand the differing points of view here.  

On one hand the purported cost of acquiring the living legend (and rental) Ohtani may disrupt Elias' plan to build and maintain a strong pipeline of talent that would likely ensure many years of contention.

On the other hand, in order to give us the best chance to win it all this season, there are those that believe that cost would likely be worth it for bringing Ohtani aboard.

This debate appears pretty straightforward.  The one caveat is the actual cost.  We don't know for sure either way what it would take. 

Cowser, Ortiz, and Povich? Kjerstad, Basallo, and Hall? Too much? Mayo, Norby, Wagner, and Showalter? Not enough? The possibilities are endless.

The point I'm making is that there is a line you would not cross in regards to player/prospect cost and defining that line helps set your POV. 

Instead of saying you would or wouldn't do it, show us where your line is at.  What is the max value you're willing to sacrifice? 

I don't think Moreno trades him at all, personally. I do not think the Orioles should trade for him if he's available, bigger picture is ahead of us.