Ohtani Rental?

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did the O's get even one level 55 prospect for Machado?  (at the time of the trade)

Diaz was a 55ish prospect depending on who you ask.

[Jagwar]

CBS Sports suggested a package of Kjerstad, Hall and Norby would get an Ohtani deal done. I'm ambivalent on giving up Hall or Norby for an Ohtani rental, but really wouldn't want to give up Kjerstad unless it was for a controllable piece. 

[Malike]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did the O's get even one level 55 prospect for Machado?  (at the time of the trade)

No, Machado was a 4.5 win player when we traded him. Again, if you are the Angels, a few games back in the WC, what do you ask the Orioles for for Ohtani? It's easy to look at from our perspective, but Moreno has already told his GM to piss off when asked in the past about trading Ohtani. Machado was never the best player we've seen in our lifetime, two different animals here.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Malike

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Diaz was a 55ish prospect depending on who you ask.

So one out of the five.

Depending on who you ask.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

No, Machado was a 4.5 win player when we traded him. Again, if you are the Angels, a few games back in the WC, what do you ask the Orioles for for Ohtani? It's easy to look at from our perspective, but Moreno has already told his GM to piss off when asked in the past about trading Ohtani. Machado was never the best player we've seen in our lifetime, two different animals here.

You're the one that brought up Machado.

I have issue with the hundreds of millions of future value.

That's roughly 5 level 55 prospects.

Going by the Fangraph list from February we have:

Grayson and Mayo at 55.

Hall and Ortiz at 50.

Kjerstad at 45+

Switch Cowser (45) out for Hall.

So that's Grayson, Mayo, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser.  That's a group that was *roughly* estimated to give close to the type of value you are suggesting.

You don't think it would take that much to get a deal done right?

[RarityFlaherty]

8 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

CBS Sports suggested a package of Kjerstad, Hall and Norby would get an Ohtani deal done. I'm ambivalent on giving up Hall or Norby for an Ohtani rental, but really wouldn't want to give up Kjerstad unless it was for a controllable piece. 

I agree. I feel like Kjerstad is probably going to be set up to go for rookie of the year next year.
 

How about Hall, Norby, Beavers and maybe another throw in? Probably doesn’t get it done, but that’s why the trade probably doesn’t happen. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

You don't think Volpe or Casas is good enough to headline a trade for Ohtani?  For context, Volpe was top 5 prospect going into this season and even with his struggles I think most teams would value him more than any of our prospects other than Holiday. And Casas isn't thar far removed from being a top guy and he's really come into his own in the 2nd half this season. It's hard to imagine the Angels declining a trade offer if either one of them was the main piece (with other lesser pieces included). 

I think it’s possible that Volpe could, but as I stated the Yankees do not have other prospects to build around him. If they were to give up Volpe and one of their other two top 100 prospects that leaves them with nothing. As I previously stated, Steinbrenner does not have the war chest to outbid Cohen for Ohtani on the open market (assuming Ohtani would be open to staying on the East Coast in the NY market).

Ohtani for the Yanks would most likely be a two month rental. Not a justifiable cost given the rest of the structure of their org and given the fact that they are tied for last place. They have 3 games against us this weekend and that is it. So it is unlikely that they can make up 9 games with 60 to go when they don’t play us but 3 times (all of which Ohtani is unlikely to be a part of.) So, no I don’t see the Yankees being a player for Ohtani.

The Red Sox have a similar situation as the Yanks. They are a last place team unlikely to be able to catch the O’s as well. Now, while they have a little bit better farm than the Yanks, they don’t have the war chest even the size of the Yankees (see the Betts and Bogaerts departures as examples of their limitations). Casas+ may be able to get them in the neighborhood but again, Ohtani would likely just be a 2 month rental as they have little to no shot of beating the Dodgers or Mets in an open market bid for Ohtani. 

[Hallas]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You're the one that brought up Machado.

I have issue with the hundreds of millions of future value.

That's roughly 5 level 55 prospects.

Going by the Fangraph list from February we have:

Grayson and Mayo at 55.

Hall and Ortiz at 50.

Kjerstad at 45+

Switch Cowser (45) out for Hall.

So that's Grayson, Mayo, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser.  That's a group that was *roughly* estimated to give close to the type of value you are suggesting.

You don't think it would take that much to get a deal done right?

I think the expanded playoffs means that the price of a win at the trade deadline is going to be a little higher than what we received when we sold.  I kind of recall that year was exceptionally bad for sellers.

 

Maybe not 5 55+ prospects, but at least 2 or 3, especially once you factor in that Ohtani is twice the player that Machado is.

 

Also, at least some of that future value is unlikely to be realized with the Orioles because we can only field 8 position players.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Hallas

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

In that case, it would also mean they don't want to trade him to their nearest wildcard competitors either, being 4 games out. And they might be looking for players who can help their team sooner rather than later to along with the prospect to build their future around.

He didn’t mention Wildcard competitors as it would be pretty much assumed that by trading Ohtani they would not be making the playoffs. They haven’t been able to do so with him and Trout together.

[G54377]

I don't like the Ohtani deal, there's no way the Angels would accept what I'd be willing to offer. Sure you're getting two players in one, but that also means you lose 2 players if/when he would get hurt. Also, his bat isn't replacing the Mateos of our lineup. He'd be supplanting Ohearn or Santander. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You're the one that brought up Machado.

I have issue with the hundreds of millions of future value.

That's roughly 5 level 55 prospects.

Going by the Fangraph list from February we have:

Grayson and Mayo at 55.

Hall and Ortiz at 50.

Kjerstad at 45+

Switch Cowser (45) out for Hall.

So that's Grayson, Mayo, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser.  That's a group that was *roughly* estimated to give close to the type of value you are suggesting.

You don't think it would take that much to get a deal done right?

I don't. But you keep refusing to post what you think will get the deal done.  Jorge Mateo was rated higher than the likes of Max Fried and Austin Riley who were 83rd and 97th and have put up nearly 33 WAR combined. Would you be happy trading that value for 2 months of Ohtani? Going by last years WAR valuation, that's 280.5M dollars for two players

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Malike said:

I don't. But you keep refusing to post what you think will get the deal done.  Jorge Mateo was rated higher than the likes of Max Fried and Austin Riley who were 83rd and 97th and have put up nearly 33 WAR combined. Would you be happy trading that value for 2 months of Ohtani? Going by last years WAR valuation, that's 280.5M dollars for two players

Of course you can, with the benefit of hindsight, come up with trades that were terrible for one side or another.

As for what it would take to get it done?

I think the Angels owner is going to get involved and he's going to demand an unreasonable return (and that Ohtani won't get traded).

I'm guessing Grayson (you need a headlining pitcher), Kjerstad, Westburg (position player in the majors) and a younger arm like Pinto.

Now if those guys hit big might they get you to 200M in value?  Sure, but they aren't projected to.

 

Disclaimer: I'm crap at fake trades.

[Malike]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course you can, with the benefit of hindsight, come up with trades that were terrible for one side or another.

As for what it would take to get it done?

I think the Angels owner is going to get involved and he's going to demand an unreasonable return (and that Ohtani won't get traded).

I'm guessing Grayson (you need a headlining pitcher), Kjerstad, Westburg (position player in the majors) and a younger arm like Pinto.

Now if those guys hit big might they get you to 200M in value?  Sure, but they aren't projected to.

 

Disclaimer: I'm crap at fake trades.

I also don't believe Moreno would trade him, regardless of the package. He's shown repeatedly he's willing to cut off his nose to spite his face.

[scbalt52]

46 minutes ago, Malike said:

I mean we got 5 players for Machado in a walk year and he wasn't nearly on the level of Ohtani. Who are you sending over? If you guys don't think the pieces we can send them are valuable, why would they? Do you think you know something they don't?

IMO, I think this is where people overvalue Ohtani for this trade, including the 'expert' reporters. Of course, Ohtani is more valuable than Machado was. But not as much as people are saying in most of these potential trades. If he was locked up for 2+ years, then yes. All trades would have to start with Jackson.

 

Since it is a rental, how much more is Ohtani worth than Machado for 2 months of baseball? Certainly some, yes. But I think 2 top 100 and another lesser piece or 2 gets it done. The Angels might want more "since it's Ohtani, the god, the legend, the best player in history...whatever" but then they won't get a deal done and have him walk for nothing.

 

In the system we have now, I'm not sure Bannon, Pop, or Valera crack our top 20 maybe even 30. That's 3 of the 5 we got for Machado. Diaz was a nice top 100 prospect and Kremer was solid. We took what we could get, rightfully so. Ohtani will take more but not a lot more. Kjerstad/Cowser and another top 100 should already be close for the deal, then throw in 1 or 2 outside our top 10. 

[EddeeEddee]

45 minutes ago, G54377 said:

I don't like the Ohtani deal, there's no way the Angels would accept what I'd be willing to offer. Sure you're getting two players in one, but that also means you lose 2 players if/when he would get hurt. Also, his bat isn't replacing the Mateos of our lineup. He'd be supplanting Ohearn or Santander. 

Yeah good point about where his bat plays.  What the O's suddenly could use is an extra outfield bat -- no need to replace Mateo since Gunnar can do that. 

From the O's perspective the interest in Ohtani would be more as a pitcher, but suddenly he's not as sharp from the mound lately.  Even if they were thinking about it for awhile I don't think the O's are serious about trading for him.