I Love Aaron Hicks!

[HelenaEngineer]

20 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

I could see Hicks losing ABs to Hays, Santander, or Mullins but the way he's been playing not to Cowser. If you stick with Mountcastle, no room for Cowser unless he replaces Mckenna which would result in little playing time If you put Santander in the platoon with O'Hearn that could give Cowser the Hicks role you just spelled out

I know this is reach way back in the time machine, but I like the idea of 4 outfielders all getting substantial playing time. If you look at the 1971 Orioles, Buford, Blair, Rettenmund and Frank all had over 400 ABs and all of them had very good seasons. Earl could rest whoever needed it, go with matchups based on the opposing pitcher and have a strong player on the bench every night.

Probably partially because they realized they had 4 legitimate starting outfielders and Don Baylor on the way, they made the decision to trade Frank to the Dodgers. Aside from losing Robinson's bat and leadership, Buford, Blair and Rettenmund all had sharp declines in 1972. Maybe it was coincidence, but I have to think Earl's ability to maximize rest and matchups had to play a role in their 1971 results compared to 1972.  I think this team has enough ABs in the outfield to keep Hays, Mullins, Hicks and Cowser happy and productive.

[Moose Milligan]

30 minutes ago, deward said:

My point is that, prior to this two week heater, Hicks hasn't been a better offensive option than Mountcastle since 2020. He played 130 games last year and put an OPS of .642. Sure, he walked more than Mountcastle, but he didn't do anything else. Hicks isn't as good as he looks right now, and Mountcastle probably isn't as bad as he's looked over the last 50 games. O'Hearn also isn't as good as he looks right now. 

Mounty is certainly replaceable, and I have no problems with him losing PT while other guys are hot, but I wouldn't rule out a scenario where he becomes the best option out of those three in the 2nd half of the year. 

Ryan Mountcastle's OPS+ has dipped from 137 to 114, to 107 to 89.   His regular OPS has dipped from .878 to .796 to .729 to .686.  There is a very real possibility that he's on a steady decline across his career.

Hicks, IMO, is more valuable based on his plate discipline alone and I'm not even bringing his adequate defense in CF to the table.  O'Hearn isn't as good as he looks right now, I agree, however his plate discipline is still better than Mountcastle's.  And he can bring a bit of positional flexibility and play in the outfield although I think probably everyone agrees that if O'Hearn is in the outfield something is wrong.

So again, I don't care what Hicks hasn't done over the past two years because it's irrelevant if he's finally healthy which he looks to be.  However, if we're going to prop up Hicks' last two years as something that's relevant, we also need to examine Mountcastle's steady trend of slowly becoming worse and not better.

 

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, HelenaEngineer said:

I know this is reach way back in the time machine, but I like the idea of 4 outfielders all getting substantial playing time. If you look at the 1971 Orioles, Buford, Blair, Rettenmund and Frank all had over 400 ABs and all of them had very good seasons. Earl could rest whoever needed it, go with matchups based on the opposing pitcher and have a strong player on the bench every night.

Probably partially because they realized they had 4 legitimate starting outfielders and Don Baylor on the way, they made the decision to trade Frank to the Dodgers. Aside from losing Robinson's bat and leadership, Buford, Blair and Rettenmund all had sharp declines in 1972. Maybe it was coincidence, but I have to think Earl's ability to maximize rest and matchups had to play a role in their 1971 results compared to 1972.  I think this team has enough ABs in the outfield to keep Hays, Mullins, Hicks and Cowser happy and productive.

Pre DH (in 1973) and now are very different situations.  Santander clearly worse OFer than Hays, Mullins, Hicks .. i would have him DH and occasional OF/1B starts when Adley DHs … at least if and until Hicks fades out 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

But also, @wildcardgetting rid of Mountcastle in some way makes keeping Hicks in the lineup easier.  And that's clearly an upgrade.

Only if you look at a few weeks of Hicks.  There’s certainly a chance that he turns into a pumpkin.  And Mountcastle is capable of returning to form.  

In other words, it’s an upgrade for now.  It may not work out longer term.  But who knows?
 

[HelenaEngineer]

11 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Pre DH (in 1973) and now are very different situations.  Santander clearly worse OFer than Hays, Mullins, Hicks .. i would have him DH and occasional OF/1B starts when Adley DHs … at least if and until Hicks fades out 

That is exactly what I proposed in the comment before this one. The 4 man outfield I recommended was Hays, Mullins, Hicks and Cowser with Santander in exactly the role you described. The comment you are quoting was in reference to another claim that there wasn't enough outfield playing time available to justify bringing up Cowser.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Only if you look at a few weeks of Hicks.  There’s certainly a chance that he turns into a pumpkin.  And Mountcastle is capable of returning to form.  

In other words, it’s an upgrade for now.  It may not work out longer term.  But who knows?
 

I said it before, I'll say it again here:  Hicks plate discipline and solid outfield defense > Mountcastle.  I'm aware that Hicks isn't this good.

Mountcastle has declined every year since he's been in the league.  I don't think this is a trend that should be ignored.

 

 

[dzorange]

I would like Hicks to stick around for a while. Obviously he's going to come back down to earth. But with that said, he was due to get hot after his horrible start to the year.

He's proven to be a serviceable baseball player. Injuries are his biggest issue, but when healthy, he's at least worthy of a bench spot.

He's serviceable at the plate and serviceable in the field. I don't know if he's much better than that, but he's certainly not worse than that either. When he puts together a full season of health, he's around a 1.5 WAR player annually. Even last year he still put up a 1.4 fWAR and a okay-enough OBP of .330.

If he didn't have that 7 year deal hanging over him, he'd be looked at as a less-offensive Adam Frazier. His approach at the plate and power fits with the rest of the lineup as well.

Edited June 21, 2023 by dzorange

[kidrock]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I said it before, I'll say it again here:  Hicks plate discipline and solid outfield defense > Mountcastle.  I'm aware that Hicks isn't this good.

Mountcastle has declined every year since he's been in the league.  I don't think this is a trend that should be ignored.

 

 

As much as I wish this wasn't true (because I want Mountcastle to be good), it just is.  Everything you have said about him has been straight facts.  Declining each year, to the point where he looked just plain lost for a while.  Sucks, but its just facts.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, kidrock said:

As much as I wish this wasn't true (because I want Mountcastle to be good), it just is.  Everything you have said about him has been straight facts.  Declining each year, to the point where he looked just plain lost for a while.  Sucks, but its just facts.

I'd love for him to be good, too.  

[kidrock]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd love for him to be good, too.  

Oh yeah, I know you do.  I just think some people on this forum think there is some anti Mountcastle bias or whatever.  I think all of us want him to be good.  But we do have to look at the facts.  There are better players available.  Plain and simple.  You cant be a low hit, poor defensive first baseman.  Even if you have good exit velocities.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd love for him to be good, too.  

Mountcastle is strictly a platoon bat against LHP with limited defensive value. I think he remains on the team, but it might be his last season as an Oriole.

There’s too much talent in the farm system to carry one dimensional players like Mountcastle for much longer. 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, kidrock said:

Oh yeah, I know you do.  I just think some people on this forum think there is some anti Mountcastle bias or whatever.  I think all of us want him to be good.  But we do have to look at the facts.  There are better players available.  Plain and simple.  You cant be a low hit, poor defensive first baseman.  Even if you have good exit velocities.

Yeah, I think that sums it up well. 

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Mountcastle is strictly a platoon bat against LHP with limited defensive value. I think he remains on the team, but it might be his last season as an Oriole.

There’s too much talent in the farm system to carry one dimensional players like Mountcastle for much longer. 

It's not even a dimension.  It's like a fraction of a dimension that he brings to the table, which is that he can hit lefties.  

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I think that sums it up well. 

It's not even a dimension.  It's like a fraction of a dimension that he brings to the table, which is that he can hit lefties.  

 

With Elias acting fast will mean Mountcastle isn’t brought back in 2024. I’ll be very surprised if there is a major roster shakeup in the near term with Mountcastle, Mateo and Frazier.

I think Elias is going to do something except it won’t be to the magnitude that some of us desire. 

[Mr-splash]

I remember when OBP was the new sexy, cutting edge, analytic tool. Which genuinely made sense because baseball is a game of outs. The worst thing a hitter can do is make an out. So the less he makes an out the better. Makes sense. 

 

Now, we've got incredibly weird analytics nerds. Mountcastle blows. bUT wHaT ABoUt ExIT VeLOciTy AnD LAuNch AnGLe?

[clapdiddy]

Agree with @Moose Milligan take here.   Right now, since Mountcastle has options, it seems the best place for him to be is in Norfolk.  Maybe he can swing a hot bat down there and get back, but the trend is not his friend.

I would prefer Hicks over him...right now.  O'Hearn can play first against RHP and Urias/Santander can against LHP.  If Hicks comes down from his cloud, Mouncastle is a move away.  I still would love to find a way to get Cowser up here as well.