Roch: Cowser to join Orioles in NY

[Moose Milligan]

Jokes aside, I am not worried about Cowser.  He has a really strong idea of the strike zone, he doesn't swing a lot on balls out of the zone.  I don't really remember the definition of what a "barrel" is, but he's drilled some balls hard right at defenders.  

He'll be fine.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Cowser and Westburg don’t have any barrels because they’re not hitting balls hard at the right launch angle, not because they are not hitting them hard. Cowser has a 38.7% hard hit %, slightly below the league average of 39.4%, and Westburg is at an exceptional 51.9%. 

Obviously both Cowser and Westburg are going to need to figure out how to hit the ball hard in the air to hit for power, and they haven’t hit anything with an impressive max EV yet. But they are making good swing decisions and hitting some balls hard, just need some more adjustment time. With the tiny samples they are working with, all it would take is a couple barrels for everything to look a lot better. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Cowser and Westburg don’t have any barrels because they’re not hitting balls hard at the right launch angle, not because they are not hitting them hard. Cowser has a 38.7% hard hit %, slightly below the league average of 39.4%, and Westburg is at an exceptional 51.9%. 

Obviously both Cowser and Westburg are going to need to figure out how to hit the ball hard in the air to hit for power, and they haven’t hit anything with an impressive max EV yet. But they are making good swing decisions and hitting some balls hard, just need some more adjustment time. With the tiny samples they are working with, all it would take is a couple barrels for everything to look a lot better. 

Smart post right here. 

[RZNJ]

Obviously., my definition of barrel must be different.  I think he's barreled 5-6 but he really hasn't driven anything with authority to the OF, specifically the pull side.  He's lined out to the 1B, hit some hard grounders to 1B,  bit all in all he has looked like a slap hitter, which he wasn't at Bowie and Norfolk.   Just a matter of time.  This can't be the ML version of Cowser.   The question is will he get hot before Hicks and Mullins come back.  At some point he stops getting chances.

[Moose Milligan]

Guys drafted in the first round (especially in the top 10) get a lot more chances than those who haven't been.  

 

[Emory Eagle]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I expected Cowser to struggle as he has at nearly every level initially.  Fangraphs pointed out today that "...Cowser has hit just .122/.302/.146 through his first 53 PA and has yet to barrel a single ball."  Longenhagen has never really liked him that much.  Thinks not enough power and strikes out too much.   But it is interesting that he hasn't barreled a single ball.  Of note, Westburg has only barreled one ball.  Gunnar has 24 barrels.  Ohtani has 53.

The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Left Field and Right Field | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Looks like he has a expected wOBA of about .320, which would be league average I believe (along with a BABIP of only .161).  So while not barreling the ball yet with the frequency that would be ideal, he is at least getting on base and does appear to have hit into some bad luck.  Anecdotally, I recall at least two well struck balls caught by Rays outfielders last series that could have been XBH.  Still, need him to increase his production.  

[Frobby]

The barrels will come, IMO.  He’s had a reasonable K rate, good BB rate, and isn’t swinging at pitches outside the zone.  He probably needs to be a touch more aggressive, but he’ll figure it out.  

[Hallas]

43 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Cowser and Westburg don’t have any barrels because they’re not hitting balls hard at the right launch angle, not because they are not hitting them hard. Cowser has a 38.7% hard hit %, slightly below the league average of 39.4%, and Westburg is at an exceptional 51.9%. 

Obviously both Cowser and Westburg are going to need to figure out how to hit the ball hard in the air to hit for power, and they haven’t hit anything with an impressive max EV yet. But they are making good swing decisions and hitting some balls hard, just need some more adjustment time. With the tiny samples they are working with, all it would take is a couple barrels for everything to look a lot better. 

I think there is a lot more to be concerned with Cowser. He's not getting *any* elevation on the ball.  His sweet spot percentage is worse than the worst qualified batter in the league.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I think there is a lot more to be concerned with Cowser. He's not getting *any* elevation on the ball.  His sweet spot percentage is worse than the worst qualified batter in the league.

I agree. He definitely needs to make adjustments and is not just having bad luck. But it’s still a tiny sample and it’s not all red flags, that’s all. He’s not overmatched by any means (except perhaps against tough LHP). His minor league track record gives me a lot of confidence that he’s going to make those adjustments.

[tntoriole]

I would give him plenty of ABs only till Hicks and Mullins return.. He has had 53 ABs in 16 games .. if he is still at this range of .122/.302/.146 at 100 ABs.. he needs a reset imho

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Obviously., my definition of barrel must be different.  I think he's barreled 5-6 but he really hasn't driven anything with authority to the OF, specifically the pull side.  He's lined out to the 1B, hit some hard grounders to 1B,  bit all in all he has looked like a slap hitter, which he wasn't at Bowie and Norfolk.   Just a matter of time.  This can't be the ML version of Cowser.   The question is will he get hot before Hicks and Mullins come back.  At some point he stops getting chances.

The definition of a barrel can be found here.  Basically, it’s determined by combination of EV and launch angle.

But to put the “Cowser has zero barrels” thing in perspective, a 10% barrel rate is well above average.  He’s put 30 balls in play, so you’d hope he’d have 2-3 by now.  Not a very big deal.   Westburg has exactly 1 barrel, but he has 5 doubles, 2 triples and a homer.  

[scbalt52]

Would it be dumb to try to bat Cowser lead off a game or 2? I know it's counter-intuitive to move a guy up in the order hitting .120 and struggling early but maybe he gets some pitches to drive with Adley and the gang behind him. Might get him going. He has shown zero power so far and that isn't like him.

 

Obviously, it is early. Mark me down as not worried.

[RVAOsFan]

Alright, so it has been discussed here that Cowser has needed time to adjust to each of the new levels he has reached.  Can someone tell me approximately it usually takes him to adjust? Also, how long do the O's give him to adjust with Mullins and Hicks due back in a couple weeks? I imagine McKenna will be sent down first but things get a little crowded after that if Cowser hasn't started performing. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

After starting off his first 2 weeks with 5 Ks in 40 PA (from 7/5 to 7/20), Cowser has 13 Ks in his last 23 PAs. He had bad batted ball luck in the start and I’ll continue to defend him for that, but is now struggling to put the ball in play, which is much more concerning. His chase % is still very good but the Z-contact is now subpar. 

Cowser is going to have rope until Hicks or Mullins come back, and coincidentally that’s probably about the amount of time the Orioles need to make a call.  If Cowser does not turn it around quickly with his contact rates he should not be getting significant playing time in a playoff chase. If it’s bad batted ball luck that’s one thing, but if he’s struggling with contact then at some point you have to pull the plug and say he’s gotten his taste of MLB pitching, gotten “punched in the mouth at the next level” as Elias has said, and he’s got the things he needs to work on in the offseason. 

This is not a big enough sample for me to be concerned about the long term prospects of a 23 year old 5th overall pick who has absolutely raked at every stop of the minors for 2 years. But the team is just not in position at this juncture to be breaking in prospects with significant growing pains for extended periods with a 1.5 GB lead on the Rays in August. Winning the division and the bye through the wildcard round are on the line. 

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Alright, so it has been discussed here that Cowser has needed time to adjust to each of the new levels he has reached.  Can someone tell me approximately it usually takes him to adjust? Also, how long do the O's give him to adjust with Mullins and Hicks due back in a couple weeks? I imagine McKenna will be sent down first but things get a little crowded after that if Cowser hasn't started performing. 

It’s not true.  He hit right away at Delmarva.   Not a terrible start at Aberdeen.   Got off to a very hot start at Bowie.   The only thing similar to now is the beginning of this season at Norfolk.   The rest is a false narrative.