Specific Trade Ideas

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I agree with you that it's unlikely and said it was unlikely in the post.  I was posting in response to the rumor about the Astros interest in trading for Cease. I wouldn't deal him if I were them, but I also wouldn't offer more than what I posted on our side.  Unlikely, even highly unlikely, isn't impossible though. 

Sorry, my comment was more a general one. I see lots of of posts in this thread and others where someone suggests trading for a player a  team is likely to trade and it quickly escalates to, "well what would it take to get their much younger, better player who's under team control for a number of years".  I can usually live with the orange tinted hubris (i.e., let's trade Mateo for Ohtani!), but it really frustrates me when folks don't at least take the other team's needs/motivation into consideration at least at little bit. Again, this isn't directed at your post, just a general comment. 

[ArtVanDelay]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Eduardo Rodriguez is a guy with a career ERA of over 4+ and a FIP about the same, coming off of injury where he's been up and down in performance since he came back from injury. Stay away. Buyer beware.

There's also the fact that the Orioles traded him away before. No way I see them trading to get him back, especially with the amount of money he's already making.

His career FIP (3.84) is significantly better than any of our starters except Bradish (4.02). 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Sorry, my comment was more a general one. I see lots of of posts in this thread and others where someone suggests trading for a player a  team is likely to trade and it quickly escalates to, "well what would it take to get their much younger, better player who's under team control for a number of years".  I can usually live with the orange tinted hubris (i.e., let's trade Mateo for Ohtani!), but it really frustrates me when folks don't at least take the other team's needs/motivation into consideration at least at little bit. Again, this isn't directed at your post, just a general comment. 

It's all good... and it's true, we see the most fantastically one-sided trade ideas. 

[OakOrioles]

Hader and Snell if price isn’t sky high, almost makes too much sense.

[Roll Tide]

16 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Kremer has been better lately (other than the Twins start here where he got shelled by a horrible offense). But I would rather put our postseason hopes in acquiring a better starter to slot in the first three games and then using him as a fourth starter (if needed). Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Stroman, Cease, and even Giolito are all better than Kremer IMO.

Not me …. In his last 8 starts he’s given up 3 runs, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1. That’s 6 starts that the team should win on most days.  In May, he never gave up more than 3 runs in any start. 
 

I know people are looking at his ERA…. In the other two starts June 7  -6 runs in 5 innings and June 30th 7 runs in 30 innings. Inflated….yes but why did he go even 3 innings on a day he clearly didn’t have it.  Perhaps he was saving the pen or whatever but the inflated ERA on Hyde.  And his start of the season was just a disastrous to his line. In 6 starts he gave up 4 or 5 in 5 of them. Something was clearly wrong…..I don’t know if he was tipping pitches or had a mechanical issue but he clearly wasn’t the pitcher he was last season or lately.

 

Honestly, I rather spend time discussing fixing the middle of the pen than debate Kremer. Wells Schat out a poor one last night and I’m guessing some keys will overreact and be calling for him to be sent to the pen or AAA despite him being our best starter most of the season.

 

I think Hyde with Angelos direction will try to pick up a couple relievers that are both low cost in prospects and money.

Will he get another starter? I suspect he will try and possibly come up with another Gibson type. But, they arent taking on a bunch of salary, I don’t believe he wants to bust the talent pool on rental players. I think some guys who are expecting an uptick in payroll only look back to the winter when expectations were high that we’d add a solid free agent starter and some other people. We basically swopped Lyles for Gibson and added Frazier. Both have been decent acquisitions and had their moments. But, if we are being honest are pretty close to the bottom of the barrel types.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not me …. In his last 8 starts he’s given up 3 runs, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1. That’s 6 starts that the team should win on most days.  In May, he never gave up more than 3 runs in any start. 
 

I know people are looking at his ERA…. In the other two starts June 7  -6 runs in 5 innings and June 30th 7 runs in 30 innings. Inflated….yes but why did he go even 3 innings on a day he clearly didn’t have it.  Perhaps he was saving the pen or whatever but the inflated ERA on Hyde.  And his start of the season was just a disastrous to his line. In 6 starts he gave up 4 or 5 in 5 of them. Something was clearly wrong…..I don’t know if he was tipping pitches or had a mechanical issue but he clearly wasn’t the pitcher he was last season or lately.

 

Honestly, I rather spend time discussing fixing the middle of the pen than debate Kremer. Wells Schat out a poor one last night and I’m guessing some keys will overreact and be calling for him to be sent to the pen or AAA despite him being our best starter most of the season.

Compare Kremer’s last 8 starts or his season or his career to date to Snell. No matter how you stack them up Snell is better. Snell has postseason experience and would be an upgrade to our rotation no matter where placed (maybe not in front of Bradish but that’s about it).

Wells has been very consistent thus far this season (save last night). I believe that last night was more about the Orioles taking him out of his rhythm by choosing to allow him to go to far in between starts. You could tell early on that he was off (he never walks batters) and walked 3 in 2 innings with some really bad misses. That is not Tyler Wells.

I don’t agree at all with removing Wells from our rotation. In favor of who? He is currently one of our best 2 starters. We already don’t have great starting pitching as is. To remove one of our effective guys seems like a form of self sabotage to me.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Compare Kremer’s last 8 starts or his season or his career to date to Snell. No matter how you stack them up Snell is better. Snell has postseason experience and would be an upgrade to our rotation no matter where placed (maybe not in front of Bradish but that’s about it).

Wells has been very consistent thus far this season (save last night). I believe that last night was more about the Orioles taking him out of his rhythm by choosing to allow him to go to far in between starts. You could tell early on that he was off (he never walks batters) and walked 3 in 2 innings with some really bad misses. That is not Tyler Wells.

I don’t agree at all with removing Wells from our rotation. In favor of who? He is currently one of our best 2 starters. We already don’t have great starting pitching as is. To remove one of our effective guys seems like a form of self sabotage to me.

I agree that Snell would make the rotation better this year. Probably our best starter ….but, I just doing seeing them doing it. If they did by whatever slim chance it should unseat Gonzalez this season as he is the weakest of the 5 right now. 
 

Yeah …someone in the trade thread actually mentioned sending Wells to the pen.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree that Snell would make the rotation better this year. Probably our best starter ….but, I just doing seeing them doing it. If they did by whatever slim chance it should unseat Gonzalez this season as he is the weakest of the 5 right now. 
 

Yeah …someone in the trade thread actually mentioned sending Wells to the pen.

I think you meant Rodriguez. Yes he is the weakest of our current starters but he is the one with the most potential and the youngest. IMO if anyone was to go for a Snell type, it should be Gibson.

Oh yes I recall that poster posing the idea of Wells to the pen. It made no sense to me either.

[Sports Guy]

I know there are some Mitch Keller fans out there…

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Only reasoning to send Wells to the pen is for workload concerns, not performance. He’s already approaching his max IP in a single season. I believe Elias already said on the broadcast that they are going to be less conservative with pushing SP workloads now that they are in contention and Wells has been one of our best SP.  He said they are looking for other ways to limit his workload, such as how they just gave him the max rest between starts with him starting 5th after the ASB.

Notwithstanding last night’s bad start (which could also be attributed to the extra rest?), he is going to be in the rotation all season+playoffs unless he has an injury or dramatic loss in velo or performance. And that’s the right call. But until Elias came out and said it, it wasn’t out of the question that the Orioles could have taken a hard line IP cap approach with him given their past approaches. 

FWIW, I think Grayson will be treated the same way. If he’s one of our best SP and we make the playoffs he will be starting. But if he starts to show fatigue or the performance isn’t there, they are not going to hesitate to move him to the pen for the stretch run given his workload concerns. He would certainly be a weapon in short stints (as would even a diminished Wells). 

[Sports Guy]

I will say, some of this conversation is incredibly annoying.

Over the last few years, including years where people said it was too early to sign guys because “we can’t win yet”, the Os have had chances to sign pitchers that could help us now and we wouldn’t have to trade anything to get one.

This is an aspect of those talks that I discussed back then. That if you do win(which I thought they could be doing by now), you are going to need to trade assets to get the player(s) you need when all you have to do is spend money.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I will say, some of this conversation is incredibly annoying.

Over the last few years, including years where people said it was too early to sign guys because “we can’t win yet”, the Os have had chances to sign pitchers that could help us now and we wouldn’t have to trade anything to get one.

This is an aspect of those talks that I discussed back then. That if you do win(which I thought they could be doing by now), you are going to need to trade assets to get the player(s) you need when all you have to do is spend money.

 

The most optimistic scenario: Elias’ statements about the first year being the best year of FA SP contracts are the driving force behind not pursuing FA SP yet. Ownership is not standing in the way. Elias thought the team would be more .500ish this year and didn’t want to constrict payroll in 2024 with a FA SP that may no longer be on a favorable contract when the team would be more coming into their own. This off-season they will actually go for it.

The more realistic scenario: Elias was sincere about the “first year” line for FA SP, but John Angelos is not going to sign off on a significant overall payroll increase or the risk of an expensive FA SP. We’ve got no way to get above average SP other than hoping we can develop one or giving up huge value in prospects for a hypothetical SP that may never come available. 

We won’t know for sure until the offseason. Fortunately, it’s looking like it will be a strong FA SP market. Unfortunately, last offseason was a huge disappointment in terms of willingness to spend, and if they do the same again this offseason I don’t think it’s ever going to be different. 

[OriolesMagic83]

11 hours ago, OakOrioles said:

Hader and Snell if price isn’t sky high, almost makes too much sense.

I think that would be the perfect combo for the O's.  Padres are really lacking in positional prospects.  I heard a breakdown of the Padres offense about a month ago.  They were getting almost nothing from their non star hitters.  Of course the Padres' offensive stars have been underperforming.  The Padres could really use some good infield talent. 

[Greg Pappas]

From Rosenthal at The Athletic:

Quote

A package for Ohtani could include one of first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, outfielder Colton Cowser (No. 13 in the BA rankings), third baseman Coby Mayo (No. 32) or outfielder Heston Kjerstad (No. 66), plus one of a middle-infield group that includes Jordan Westburg (No. 46), Joey Ortiz (No. 77) or César Prieto. Catcher Samuel Basallo (No. 59) could be in play. So could a pitching prospect such as lefty Cade Povich or righty Seth Johnson, the latter of whom is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The only players who should be off-limits from the Orioles’ perspective are Holliday, catcher Adley Rutschman, infielder Gunnar Henderson and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. Other teams boast similar cores — the Reds, for example, with left-hander Andrew Abbott, infielders Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz and infielder/outfielder Spencer Steer — but their systems do not appear quite as deep.

For teams in need of starting pitching, the options are limited. Quality starters under control beyond this season are in short supply. The price for a rental such as the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito or Padres’ Blake Snell (if available) will be high. So would the price for a starter with an opt-out such as the Cubs’ Marcus Stroman or Tigers’ Eduardo Rodriguez, and any team that acquires one of those pitchers would risk getting stuck with his future commitment.

Why not just go for Ohtani, who also is on a 59-homer pace as a hitter? Good question. And one the Orioles, in particular, should be asking.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think that would be the perfect combo for the O's.  Padres are really lacking in positional prospects.  I heard a breakdown of the Padres offense about a month ago.  They were getting almost nothing from their non star hitters.  Of course the Padres' offensive stars have been underperforming.  The Padres could really use some good infield talent. 

The Padres have Manny and Bogaerts locked into their IF for a long time, and Kim has been excellent at 2B and still has 3 arb years after this year. Additionally, Cronenworth has regressed with the bat and now looks like a subpar 1B, but a better fit at 2B.

They are quite set for some time in the IF. They also have Soto and Tatis in the corners in the OF, and Grisham is a solid CF with 2 more arb years. They are really lacking at C, 1B and DH. They could also use more quality pitching and pitching depth. 

In terms of near-term prospects, the Orioles don’t match up great because Kjerstad/Mayo are far too valuable and there aren’t upper-level corner bats behind them, pretty much just Stowers. At C, Basallo is too valuable (and too far away) and Willems is just too far off. We don’t have much in the way of spare pitching prospects either. If the Padres are looking for major league ready prospects at their positions of need, we aren’t going to be able to meet that.