Felix vs the Otter

[MacAdoo]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am on my phone, but I do believe someone mentioned Britton having to rely on his defense. 
 

I do remember a late season save where he was bailed out on a miraculous relay from left field to nail a runner at the plate. 
 

Britton was great and had a fantastic season but I think Felix is striking out more batters. 

I think the new extra inning rules give potential for significant more value to Bautista in 2023 vs Britton in 2016.  With the ghost runner starting on 2nd, you're much more likely to score and potentially win the game in 10 in 2023 vs having a longer drawn out extra-inning game in 2016.  Britton was 2-1 on the year.  Felix is already 5-1 and several of those have been where he pitches a scoreless 9th to send the game to extras and strikes out 2 or 3 to strand the ghost runner while the Orioles scratch a run(s) across for the win.  There's probably a way to find it, and I'm admittedly too lazy (and busy) to search, but I wander how many extra inning games the Orioles lost in 2016 where Britton pitched a scoreless 9th/9th +10th and the Orioles still lost in extras?  Mountain's style of pitching in conjunction with the extra inning rules could be worth 3-5 extra wins a year now days. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by MacAdoo
misspelling

[ArtVanDelay]

15 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Because BB/9 is a better indicator of command?

I don’t think it’s that simple.  Maybe I’m wrong. 

[Number5]

39 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Because BB/9 is a better indicator of command?

I believe BB/9 is more an indicator of control.  Hard hit balls would be more an indicator of lack of command, as I understand it.  I've never been super-clear on the difference between command and control, but I think that command refers more to hitting spots, whereas control refers to throwing strikes.  Would someone who knows please correct me if I've got that wrong.

[Flash- bd]

52 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think the intimidation leads (in part) to the results.  Knowing you have to defend against 102 AND a splitter 12 mph slower would be unnerving.  Britton was kind of a one trick pony.  That trick was damn good. But at least you can put together an attack plan.  

What I mean is that if the results aren't better (and I don't know if anyone will ever have better results than Britton's 2016), then the intimidation (which as you say, should show up in the results) doesn't really mean anything no, it's just aesthetics / cognitive biases on our side, no?

I can see arguments on longevity or multiple seasons worth of results. But Britton 2016, I'm not sure I'll ever see a closer that matches or beats that. 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Absolutely awful, but Earl leaned on him. Otter was the first reliever in my time as an Oriole fan that I remember thinking, “Hey, we have a closer.” I saw a few other teams had them over the years and I wanted a Tekulve, Fingers, Suter, etc…

How dare you disrespect Don Aase and Tom Niedenfuer!!! 

Did you ever notice that you could have slipped those guys into an episode of Dukes of Hazzard as the bad guys and they'd have fit right in?

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s notable that Olson threw a lot more innings per appearance.   That’s a function of how the closer role has evolved.   

It’s been about 30 years, and though a few closers have been about as dominant or more dominant for the O’s for 1-3 seasons, nobody has come remotely close to scaling the Mt. Olson total of 160 saves.  The guy had five excellent seasons as our closer.   I’m hoping to see someone top him one day.  Maybe The Mountain will be the guy.  
 

There can't be many records where the team record is just over three seasons worth of the single-season record. Jim Johnson's 51 saves in 2012 is the O's record, so Olson's mark is 3.1 seasons of that.

That would be like if the team home run record was 54 x 3.1 = 167. Or the team pitcher win record was 78.

I'm guessing there's a 80-90% chance of the team save mark falling in the next 20 years, unless there's some radical change in the game and top relievers only get like 15-20 saves a year.

 

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, now said:

I'm fond of the old Stu Miller (slow, slower, and slowest) but it's hard to top 1997 Randy Myers, at 1.51 ERA and 45/46 in saves, in a wire-to-wire season. 

I absolutely hated what Randy Myers did to my mental health from 1996-1997!  It wasn't just the walks and hits before getting the final out, it was the walk around the dang mound between Every. Single. Pitch. 

 

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There can't be many records where the team record is just over three seasons worth of the single-season record. Jim Johnson's 51 saves in 2012 is the O's record, so Olson's mark is 3.1 seasons of that.

That would be like if the team home run record was 54 x 3.1 = 167. Or the team pitcher win record was 78.

I'm guessing there's a 80-90% chance of the team save mark falling in the next 20 years, unless there's some radical change in the game and top relievers only get like 15-20 saves a year.

 

In general, closers don’t last that long or stay with one team.  There are 157 hitters with 300+ homers, but only 31 pitchers with 300+ saves.   Scrolling through that list, a lot of them never had 160 with one team.  There are 10 teams with a career saves record lower than the Orioles’ 160, with the DBacks being the lowest at 98 (Jose Valverde).

Trivia question: there are two pitchers who holds the team saves record for two different teams.  Who are they?

Edited July 24, 2023 by Frobby

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In general, closers don’t last that long or stay with one team.  There are 157 hitters with 300+ homers, but only 31 pitchers with 300+ saves.   Scrolling through that list, a lot of them never had 160 with one team.  There are 10 teams with a career saves record lower than the Orioles’ 160, with the DBacks being the lowest at 98 (Jose Valverde).

Trivia question: there are two pitchers who holds the team saves record for two different teams.  Who are they?

Kimbrel and Mesa?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Kimbrel and Mesa?

Nope, neither of them. 

[jdwilde1]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am on my phone, but I do believe someone mentioned Britton having to rely on his defense. 
 

I do remember a late season save where he was bailed out on a miraculous relay from left field to nail a runner at the plate. 
 

Britton was great and had a fantastic season but I think Felix is striking out more batters. 

I was at that game, sitting in section 356.  Perfect view to watch the relay throw.  

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How dare you disrespect Don Aase and Tom Niedenfuer!!! 

Did you ever notice that you could have slipped those guys into an episode of Dukes of Hazzard as the bad guys and they'd have fit right in?

I, not surprisingly, had forgotten all about those guys. Aase had one solid season in 1986 with 34 saves. 

I guess Aase and Niedenfuer couldn’t get into the actor’s guild, so they figured they’d become MLB journeyman relievers. Both were big dudes. 

[Number5]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I guess Aase and Niedenfuer couldn’t get into the actor’s guild, so they figured they’d become MLB journeyman relievers. Both were big dudes. 

Tim Stoddard acted as a nasty relief pitcher in "Rookie of the Year."

 

[now]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In general, closers don’t last that long or stay with one team.  There are 157 hitters with 300+ homers, but only 31 pitchers with 300+ saves.   Scrolling through that list, a lot of them never had 160 with one team.  There are 10 teams with a career saves record lower than the Orioles’ 160, with the DBacks being the lowest at 98 (Jose Valverde).

Trivia question: there are two pitchers who holds the team saves record for two different teams.  Who are they?

Olson and Eckersley?

[SilverRocket]

5 hours ago, MacAdoo said:

I think the new extra inning rules give potential for significant more value to Bautista in 2023 vs Britton in 2016.  With the ghost runner starting on 2nd, you're much more likely to score and potentially win the game in 10 in 2023 vs having a longer drawn out extra-inning game in 2016.

This argument and the defense argument are pretty reasonable. If we had Mark Reynolds instead of Manny at third in 2016, and the current extra-inning rules, I would prefer 2023 Bautista as closer. But given the roster makeup and rules at the time, I think Britton worked out better than Bautista would have.

Bautista's year is also not over yet... if he goes the rest of the year without blowing one then there could be a legitimate comparison to Britton's 2016. But I'm not quite that optimistic.