Ben Clemens of Fangraphs: Orioles-losers at the trade deadline

[Camden_yardbird]

18 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

His stance doesn't acknowledge that it's not an equal system and that every team can't operate the same way.  Some examples:

When the Mets made Verlander available they were still dealing from a position of power.  He was owed a lot this year and next year but they have the resources for that.  They also could include money to get more prospects.

When the Yankees traded Chapman for Torres he was about to become a free agent.  But they went into those negotiations telling teams "look, if you don't give us what we want we will hold on to him, and have a really old shot of resigning him in the offseason."

It's different for smaller market teams.  They don't have the leverage.  So when the Orioles traded Machado, or the Rockies traded Arenado those were done with the offering teams knowing they didn't have the leverage, it was trade or lose.

So to try and follow the quoted model, over time the Orioles would see more talent go out than come in.  They like the Rays have to deal where there is value, but their farm system is literally the teams most valuable commodity, maybe even more so than the major league roster.  You build a good team and you play for chances at championship.

[PeteCanes]

On 8/2/2023 at 4:57 PM, O's84 said:

I actually wasn't trying to be rude.  I apologize if that was how it was taken.  I take pain medicine for my many health problems and it's effects can cause me to not catch my tone occasionally, as well as memory and a host of other things.  I won't go on any further about it because I don't want to turn this into a pity for me post.

I was the rude one, I didn’t really mean to be. I’m sorry to sound like a DB  All is well on your end.  

[bluedog]

I find it hard to value the opinion of sportswriters who criticize front office decisions for a team that is #1 in their league and vastly out performing other teams that have followed more typical organizational strategies and have far higher payrolls.

Suggesting that the O's front office is somehow missing out on a "mental model" that he has identified as the defacto one to follow is a joke. How many MLB championship front offices has he been a part of?

[Oriole1940]

Just ignore Sportswriters and just maybe they will have to go out and get an honest job.  

[drjohnnyfever1]

By most all accounts we have the best farm in the league.  The writer is not wrong, but he's got our timeline off by a year or two.  Drafting as high in the draft as we have was extremely beneficial.  It won't be so easy going forward.  However, in a year or two, we will have a better level of depth in the farm, so that making a trade as he mentions wouldn't tend to be as painful as it could have been now.  That being said, who knows, maybe there were top flight SP's being pursued by Elias with more noteworthy prospects being offered, but we'll never know how truly close we were on those or what it would have cost.  The only answer now is that it was clearly too much and the losses would have affected continued development of the major league team.  If in the same situation next year or the year after, I would expect more aggressiveness and even more willingness to act in the manner the writer is talking about.

[Fiver6565]

What does everyone think the % chance is that Flaherty is at least as good as Verlander down the stretch?  It’s certainly not inconceivable. 
 

Point is there’s no reason to believe we’ve done less for our team than Houston did, other than name brand recognition. 

[Rbiggs2525]

10 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

What does everyone think the % chance is that Flaherty is at least as good as Verlander down the stretch?  It’s certainly not inconceivable. 
 

Point is there’s no reason to believe we’ve done less for our team than Houston did, other than name brand recognition. 

For the season I could see it being very comparable. For the playoffs i do believe Verlander has shown a strength to reach deep and perform great. Flaherty is more of an unknown there. 

[wildcard]

I think its right to say that the O's lost the off season.   They did not bring in as much talent as some others.  I think its right to say that the O's lost the deadline.   They did not bring in as much talent as some others.

But the O's accumulated so much talent over the last four years of scouting, drafting high, and building a player development organization that they do not have to win the off season or the deadline.   Their players are graduating and improving at such a rate that all  Elias needs to do is acquire a few players to fill in the gaps.

[Fiver6565]

43 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

For the season I could see it being very comparable. For the playoffs i do believe Verlander has shown a strength to reach deep and perform great. Flaherty is more of an unknown there. 

More of an unknown yes. But not a complete unknown. 1-3 record but a 3.5 ERA and 30/6 K/BB in four starts. Those aren’t bad numbers. And Flaherty has the advantage of not being in his 40s. 
 

I just don’t think it’s the slam dunk that most of these outlets are saying it is that Verlander is the better pickup, all things considered. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

For the season I could see it being very comparable. For the playoffs i do believe Verlander has shown a strength to reach deep and perform great. Flaherty is more of an unknown there. 

Verlander is 16-11 with a 3.64 ERA in post season pitching.  Very good.

Last year.

ALDS.  4 IP, 10 hits, 6 ER against Seattle

ALCS. 6 IP 3 hits, 1 ER 11 K’s against the Yanks

WS Game 1

5 IP, 6 hits 5 ER, 2 walks 5 strikeouts

game 5

5 IP 4 hits 1 ER, 4 walks 6 strikeouts

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

 

I just don’t think it’s the slam dunk that most of these outlets are saying it is that Verlander is the better pickup, all things considered. 

There is the truth and then there are "facts" that sell subscriptions, advertising and the like. If you can call someone a "loser" who has not followed the conventional "wisdom," you have a story and, most importantly, a headline. There is no reason to allow the truth to stand in the way! 

[Baltimorecuse]

Does Clemens work out of his mommy's garage.  

[dystopia]

Here's a tidbit suggesting Verlander was willing to come here but the Orioles weren't willing to give up what it took to get him. Just throwing this out there to counter the whole "his wife wouldn't want to come to the Baltimore cesspool" BS I saw getting thrown around.

 

 

[Roll Tide]

On 8/2/2023 at 2:44 PM, Gurgi said:

Thing is this writer is not in on the calls between Elias and other teams.  You have no idea what the prospects being talked about were.  

I think teams were correctly trying to fleece the Orioles that is their job.  The Orioles job is not to do something stupid on the first year where our winning window is open.  Remembering all these evaluators had the Orioles not doing good this year again.  Showing some restraint I think is wise.  

Actually we do, he basically said they asked for Holiday, Kjerstad, Mayo, Grayson R. They clearly weren’t willing. When there is no wiggle the conversations ended. I’m quite sure the White Sox asking price for Cease was at least 2 of the 4.

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Actually we do, he basically said they asked for Holiday, Kjerstad, Mayo, Grayson R. They clearly weren’t willing. When there is no wiggle the conversations ended. I’m quite sure the White Sox asking price for Cease was at least 2 of the 4.

Cease isn't worth even one of those guys. Maybe Mayo.