What do you want to see from John Means tonight?

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are going to replace someone?   I’m not doubting that?

Not sure what you mean by this. What do you think will happen when Means comes back? Or do you think that's not happening? 

[Just Regular]

Velo apples to apples - I believe the yardstick ought to be his Grapefruit turns in 2021 and 2022.

Aside from the TJ rehab angle, the last month has also been his effective Spring Training, except in August.     If last night's results occurred 5-6 days before Opening Day, we'd all be pumped this is a year he makes another All-Star team.

I don't know what happens when bright lights and adrenaline kick in, but just from an information gathering perspective finding out could be useful.

Has Kremer grown enough people are mostly content with him as the Game 3 starter over some good-ish version of Means?    You may need to accept some risk if you want to discover whether or not you have that guy.

2019-2023 - 127 MLB Arms have covered 350 innings - Means is 42nd in ERA, and 55th in k-bb.     There are about 3* seasons of evidence he's a ~60th percentile caliber SP, and half our present rotation is Flaherty-Irvin-Gibson.

*covid

Also at that 350 inning sample last several years, Gibson and Irvin are ~30th percentile or less.     Jordan Lyles and Jorge Lopez are near last, but that's a byproduct of team context as much as them.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2019&season=2023&qual=350&pageitems=30&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1

 

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not sure what you mean by this. What do you think will happen when Means comes back? Or do you think that's not happening? 

You asked the question…why are they extending him to 5 innings if they aren’t replacing anyone?

 

I never said they aren’t going to replace anyone. Just saying they don’t need to be in a hurry to do it right now.

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You asked the question…why are they extending him to 5 innings if they aren’t replacing anyone?

 

I never said they aren’t going to replace anyone. Just saying they don’t need to be in a hurry to do it right now.

We're on day 23 of 30 for his rehab assignment. Doesn't need to be tomorrow but pretty soon. I'd also like more opportunities to see how he does vs MLB hitters. So I would be inclined for him to make his next start with the O's.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Ryu has been pitching for a while. His first starts won’t be in Sept, after not pitching for 16 months, while trying to win the division.  It’s apples to oranges.

His average FB velo over the course of 30-40 pitches really doesn’t matter that much.  If he’s 92+ most of the time, im fine..but 90-91, not so much.

His 85th pitch of the night last night was 92 if that Means anything. (see what I did there?)

[banks703]

42 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Velo apples to apples - I believe the yardstick ought to be his Grapefruit turns in 2021 and 2022.

Aside from the TJ rehab angle, the last month has also been his effective Spring Training, except in August.     If last night's results occurred 5-6 days before Opening Day, we'd all be pumped this is a year he makes another All-Star team.

I don't know what happens when bright lights and adrenaline kick in, but just from an information gathering perspective finding out could be useful.

Has Kremer grown enough people are mostly content with him as the Game 3 starter over some good-ish version of Means?    You may need to accept some risk if you want to discover whether or not you have that guy.

2019-2023 - 127 MLB Arms have covered 350 innings - Means is 42nd in ERA, and 55th in k-bb.     There are about 3* seasons of evidence he's a ~60th percentile caliber SP, and half our present rotation is Flaherty-Irvin-Gibson.

*covid

Also at that 350 inning sample last several years, Gibson and Irvin are ~30th percentile or less.     Jordan Lyles and Jorge Lopez are near last, but that's a byproduct of team context as much as them.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2019&season=2023&qual=350&pageitems=30&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1

 

All great points and information. This is where I am with Means. Get him starts now to see what you have heading into the last 25+ games, while in (what will likely be) a fight to the very end for the division.

By all definitions of the injury, Means elbow should be fully healed at this point but how does he feel today and tomorrow after throwing 86 pitches last night? I'd be really interested to hear what he's had to say about these rehab starts, especially last night's start because the clips that I've seen (I didn't see the entire start) look like he's not even trying. I'm not suggesting that he can give the O's what Ryu is giving the Jays, which quite frankly is pretty ridiculous for a guy who is also only 5 starts into his own return from TJ at age 36.. but Means doesn't have to pitch to a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to improve the rotation. Again, if he can go 5 - 6 innings and pitch to a 5.00 ERA, he's going to be considerably better than what Gibson has been over his last 15 starts.

I know that there is thought that they won't remove Gibson because of his veteranocity, he's eating innings, etc. etc. but the truth is... He's not really eating innings. Since May 30 he's started 17 games and pitched 96 2/3 innings for about 5 2/3 innings per start. I wouldn't consider that an innings eater by any stretch. In three of his last 15 starts he's failed to go 5 innings and in three more of those starts he's failed to go beyond 5 1/3. So, in 40 % of his starts since June 11, he's not even going more than 5 1/3. That isn't what he's paid to do for this year's team.

Means doesn't have to give a Ryu performance to improve the starting staff. If we reference @Frobby's work on tracking the performance each month and cumulative numbers this year HERE, and we swap out Gibson's 6.28  ERA over his last 15 starts, for say a conservative John Means 4.60 ERA over those 86 innings, it's a 16 run difference and it drops the cumulative ERA from 4.04 to 3.92, which would tie them with Houston for the 5th best ERA in the AL, 7th best overall. If you get 100% of John Means's 3.81 ERA down the stretch, you're drastically improving the rotation. Even 85% of John Means's career performance would give you 4.48 ERA starting pitching.

I think that it's negligent if Means is healthy and ready to pitch for the O's and they don't remove Gibson from the rotation for Means. 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by banks703

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, banks703 said:

All great points and information. This is where I am with Means. Get him starts now to see what you have heading into the last 25+ games, while in (what will likely be) a fight to the very end for the division.

By all definitions of the injury, Means elbow should be fully healed at this point but how does he feel today and tomorrow after throwing 86 pitches last night? I'd be really interested to hear what he's had to say about these rehab starts, especially last night's start because the clips that I've seen (I didn't see the entire start) look like he's not even trying. I'm not suggesting that he can give the O's what Ryu is giving the Jays, which quite frankly is pretty ridiculous for a guy who is also only 5 starts into his own return from TJ at age 36.. but Means doesn't have to pitch to a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to improve the rotation. Again, if he can go 5 - 6 innings and pitch to a 5.00 ERA, he's going to be considerably better than what Gibson has been over his last 15 starts.

I know that there is thought that they won't remove Gibson because of his veteranocity, he's eating innings, etc. etc. but the truth is... He's not really eating innings. Since May 30 he's started 17 games and pitched 96 2/3 innings for about 5 2/3 innings per start. I wouldn't consider that an innings eater by any stretch. In three of his last 15 starts he's failed to go 5 innings and in three more of those starts he's failed to go beyond 5 1/3. So, in 40 % of his starts since June 11, he's not even going more than 5 1/3. That isn't what he's paid to do for this year's team.

Means doesn't have to give a Ryu performance to improve the starting staff. If we reference @Frobby's work on tracking the performance each month and cumulative numbers this year HERE, and we swap out Gibson's 6.28  ERA over his last 15 starts, for say a conservative John Means 4.60 ERA over those 86 innings, it's a 16 run difference and it drops the cumulative ERA from 4.04 to 3.92, which would tie them with Houston for the 5th best ERA in the AL, 7th best overall. If you get 100% of John Means's 3.81 ERA down the stretch, you're drastically improving the rotation. Even 85% of John Means's career performance would give you 4.48 ERA starting pitching.

I think that it's negligent if Means is healthy and ready to pitch for the O's and they don't remove Gibson from the rotation for Means. 

 

That’s actually eating innings by todays standards.

And here is the thing. It’s not that Gibson shouldn’t be removed. It’s that they aren’t going to…At least not now.

If he has another bad start or 2, that may change but it’s not happening now.

[interloper]

This isn't that hard. Irvin back to bullpen, Means to rotation. Irvin becomes your "oh no Gibson/Flaherty are imploding" emergency parachute. 

[wildcard]

If you are Gibson, Irvin or Flaherty and you want to stay in the rotation,  prove it by putting up quality starts.

[G54377]

I'm ready for Means, there's no way he can be worse than Gibson at this point.

[Just Regular]

In today's edition of Iron sharpens iron, we get to see if iron sharpens Irvin.

If we get to a 7 game series, it will be interesting to see how many tandem starters get taken vs. pure relievers starting around the Danny Coulombe level.

SP4 is 100% a bullpen game.

SP3 is 80% so unless someone finishes super strong.

Even Grayson and Bradish I believe twice through the order will be somewhat strict.

I'm not quite sure how you thread the needle confidence wise if in Game 3 you have both Kremer and Flaherty warming pregame and then in Game 4 you have both Means and Gibson.     You don't get to fall behind 4-0 like the White Sox on getaway day.

The scary thing with the Gibson type pitcher is that's the kind of thing that can happen in like 11 pitches that by rule might only take a couple hundred seconds.    It isn't really in Kyle Gibson's baseball DNA to pitch vicious for 3 innings.     Yearlong his talent has space to shine.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, G54377 said:

I'm ready for Means, there's no way he can be worse than Gibson at this point.

It can always get worse.

[G54377]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It can always get worse.

I'd actually like to see a list of starter ERA since the all star break. I'm sure Gibson isn't last but he can't be far off. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, G54377 said:

I'd actually like to see a list of starter ERA since the all star break. I'm sure Gibson isn't last but he can't be far off. 

A stat like ERA in any small sample can be skewed by a few bad starts and Gibson has had 2 awful starts and the was also left in to take his lumps when maybe other starters wouldn’t, so he gave up more runs.

 

[G54377]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A stat like ERA in any small sample can be skewed by a few bad starts and Gibson has had 2 awful starts and the was also left in to take his lumps when maybe other starters wouldn’t, so he gave up more runs.

 

9 starts is hardly a SSS. That's almost a 3rd of a season.