What do you want to see from John Means tonight?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, G54377 said:

9 starts is hardly a SSS. That's almost a 3rd of a season.

It’s very much a SSS especially for a stat like ERA.

If you have 8 starts where you give up 20 runs in 50 innings, that’s pretty solid. That’s a 3.6 ERA and over 6 IP per starts.

But if in that 9th start, you go 2 IP and give up 9 runs, all of a sudden your ERA for those 9 starts is just over 5.

So yes, 1-2 bad starts greatly skews numbers when a sample size is small.

[G54377]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s very much a SSS especially for a stat like ERA.

If you have 8 starts where you give up 20 runs in 50 innings, that’s pretty solid. That’s a 3.6 ERA and over 6 IP per starts.

But if in that 9th start, you go 2 IP and give up 9 runs, all of a sudden your ERA for those 9 starts is just over 5.

So yes, 1-2 bad starts greatly skews numbers when a sample size is small.

If you don't like ERA as this measurement, than use whatever metric necessary to determine the worst starters since the all star break. That was the point.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, G54377 said:

If you don't like ERA as this measurement, than use whatever metric necessary to determine the worst starters since the all star break. That was the point.

And my point is that he has had a few bad starts that will skew any of those numbers.

Look, I have no desire to defend Gibson. I didn’t like the signing to begin with and if they cut him tomorrow, I wouldn’t care.

That said, since the AS break, he has made 9 starts. In 5 of those starts, he has given up 3 or less runs and went 6 innings or more on all of those starts. In another start he gave up 4 runs in a start that he was up big throughout the time he was in there. 
 

His K rate is 8 and his BB rate is 1.35.

He has the 2 absolutely awful starts where he gave up 16 runs, 6 homers and 21 hits in 9.2 IP.

Outside of that, his second half hasn’t been bad. Now, of course those starts are horrendously awful and you don’t throw them out but the numbers look a hell of a lot better with those starts out of the picture.

All of this is to say, the Os aren’t demoting him right now because of those 2 awful starts. It’s just not happening. He is showing many other good signs and they aren’t taking a guy who is a locker room favorite, a vet, etc..out of the rotation at this time.

They certainly might in a few weeks and they probably  should right now but it’s just not going to happen.

[G54377]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And my point is that he has had a few bad starts that will skew any of those numbers.

Look, I have no desire to defend Gibson. I didn’t like the signing to begin with and if they cut him tomorrow, I wouldn’t care.

That said, since the AS break, he has made 9 starts. In 5 of those starts, he has given up 3 or less runs and went 6 innings or more on all of those starts. In another start he gave up 4 runs in a start that he was up big throughout the time he was in there. 
 

His K rate is 8 and his BB rate is 1.35.

He has the 2 absolutely awful starts where he gave up 16 runs, 6 homers and 21 hits in 9.2 IP.

Outside of that, his second half hasn’t been bad. Now, of course those starts are horrendously awful and you don’t throw them out but the numbers look a hell of a lot better with those starts out of the picture.

All of this is to say, the Os aren’t demoting him right now because of those 2 awful starts. It’s just not happening. He is showing many other good signs and they aren’t taking a guy who is a locker room favorite, a vet, etc..out of the rotation at this time.

They certainly might in a few weeks and they probably  should right now but it’s just not going to happen.

Ok, I think we are actually in agreement anyway. He should be faded out as the season goes along (and into the postseason). Hopefully Mean is Means and effectively takes his place.

[Going Underground]

52 minutes ago, G54377 said:

I'd actually like to see a list of starter ERA since the all star break. I'm sure Gibson isn't last but he can't be far off. 

Seventh worst with a 6.28 ERA. Lucas Giolito is the worst. Dylan Cease had been worse and out friend Jordan Lyles.

[Jim'sKid26]

So since July 4th Gibson's numbers:

5-3 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts. He's averaged 6.0 IP per start. Range: 4.1-8.0. The O's are 7-4 when he pitches. 

He allowed 42 earned runs, 70 hits and 11 HRs. He's gotten 63 Ks and allowed 15 Ws.

Dean Kremer since July 5th:

4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 10 starts. He's averaged about 6.0 IP per start. Range 4.0-7.0. The O's are 9-1 when he pitches. 

He's allowed 19 earned runs, 44 Hits and 7 HRs. He's gotten  52 Ks and allowed 19 Ws.

 

[Malike]

Gibson will be run out there because he generally eats a lot of innings. He's solid not spectacular despite a stinker here and there. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

swap out Gibson's 6.28  ERA over his last 15 starts

I did a double take when I saw this, because I didn’t think Gibson’s ERA possibly could have been so high over such a long stretch.  But of course, you’re right.  

The interesting thing about it is that it’s not as if Gibson is pitching horribly most of the time.  In those 15 starts, Gibson has 8 quality starts, and the O’s have won 8 of the 15 as well.  There was another start where IMO Gibson pitched pretty well, but allowed 4 runs in 6 IP.

In most of the other games, he’s been crushed: 3 IP 5 ER, 4.2 IP 6 ER, 5.1 IP 5 ER, 5.1 IP 9 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 4.1 IP 7 ER.   That’s 27.2 IP, 36 ER, for an ERA of 11.71 in those games.  

So, it’s not like Gibson has been pitching poorly every time out, or even most of the time.  But when he’s pitched poorly, he’s been basically noncompetitive.  And, I think Hyde has hung him out to dry at least a couple of times, leaving him out there to take a beating on a day when he clearly didn’t have it.   

My gut instinct is that the O’s aren’t ready to pull the plug on Gibson.  He’s still been good to solid more often than he’s been bad.  But another bad outing might change their thinking. 

The other unknown is, what do the O’s think about Joe Means is looking?  We know the results and we know the velocity readings, but the O’s methods of judging where a pitcher stands and j h is he’ll do against major league hitting are more sophisticated than that.  And we have no idea what they think on that subject.  
 

[banks703]

Look, I've been pretty consistent in my posts that inserting Means into Wednesday's start against the Angels doesn't mean necessarily that Gibson is completely removed from the rotation. However, if they have the potential to improve the club, they should. If that happens to be John Means in the rotation over Kyle Gibson, then so be it. I don't want to throw Means to the wolves. Give him Gibson's next two starts, which seem to line up with the Angels and then the Cards to see what you've got this season in John Means. They could even piggyback the two of them or find some way to piggyback all of their starters.

They're not stretching out Means to pitch out of the bullpen and they're not replacing GrayRod, Bradish or Kremer in the rotation. We saw them skip Flaherty's turn last week. They can do the same thing with Gibson. Perhaps we learn that he didn't bounce back quite right after Wednesday's game against the White Sox.

We're also neglecting the fact that historically, Gibson falters in the second half. There is a pattern there with him and we're seeing play out for the O's in real time. 

Year            1st Half     2nd Half

2023           4.60            6.28

2022           4.91            5.18

2021           2.29           5.63

2020           5.73            4.98

2019           4.03            6.13

 

[banks703]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I did a double take when I saw this, because I didn’t think Gibson’s ERA possibly could have been so high over such a long stretch.  But of course, you’re right.  

The interesting thing about it is that it’s not as if Gibson is pitching horribly most of the time.  In those 15 starts, Gibson has 8 quality starts, and the O’s have won 8 of the 15 as well.  There was another start where IMO Gibson pitched pretty well, but allowed 4 runs in 6 IP.

In most of the other games, he’s been crushed: 3 IP 5 ER, 4.2 IP 6 ER, 5.1 IP 5 ER, 5.1 IP 9 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 4.1 IP 7 ER.   That’s 27.2 IP, 36 ER, for an ERA of 11.71 in those games.  

So, it’s not like Gibson has been pitching poorly every time out, or even most of the time.  But when he’s pitched poorly, he’s been basically noncompetitive.  And, I think Hyde has hung him out to dry at least a couple of times, leaving him out there to take a beating on a day when he clearly didn’t have it.   

My gut instinct is that the O’s aren’t ready to pull the plug on Gibson.  He’s still been good to solid more often than he’s been bad.  But another bad outing might change their thinking. 

The other unknown is, what do the O’s think about Joe Means is looking?  We know the results and we know the velocity readings, but the O’s methods of judging where a pitcher stands and j h is he’ll do against major league hitting are more sophisticated than that.  And we have no idea what they think on that subject.  
 

All of this is fair. Gibson overall has not been as bad as that 6.28 ERA but even at his career 4.58, there's room there for improvement to the rotation.

I have no idea what the O's are thinking with John Means but the reality is, he's going to have to be activated in the next 7 days. If they are planning to start him (which I think it's fair to suggest that's their plan given that he's gradually been stretched out over these five rehab starts) then I think it's prudent to ease him back into facing ML hitters. Looking at their remaining schedule, the Angels and the Cards offer the two best opportunities to introduce him to the rotation this year. If Means steps into Gibson's spot in the rotation, he would line up to face the Angels then the Cards in back to back starts. I can't think see a better way to acclimate him to start against ML hitters again. 

My advocating for Means to take some of Gibson's starts is only half because I think Means offers more potential than does Gibson but the other half is because Gibson has a history of fading in the second half, down the stretch. So, why not give his 35 year old body some time to rest? In each of the previous five years when he has had drastically worse numbers in the 2nd half vs. the 1st half, it doesn't look as though he had the opportunity to rest/reset. What if giving Means these next couple starts of Gibson's yields a rested and more productive Kyle Gibson? 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, banks703 said:

All of this is fair. Gibson overall has not been as bad as that 6.28 ERA but even at his career 4.58, there's room there for improvement to the rotation.

I have no idea what the O's are thinking with John Means but the reality is, he's going to have to be activated in the next 7 days. If they are planning to start him (which I think it's fair to suggest that's their plan given that he's gradually been stretched out over these five rehab starts) then I think it's prudent to ease him back into facing ML hitters. Looking at their remaining schedule, the Angels and the Cards offer the two best opportunities to introduce him to the rotation this year. If Means steps into Gibson's spot in the rotation, he would line up to face the Angels then the Cards in back to back starts. I can't think see a better way to acclimate him to start against ML hitters again. 

My advocating for Means to take some of Gibson's starts is only half because I think Means offers more potential than does Gibson but the other half is because Gibson has a history of fading in the second half, down the stretch. So, why not give his 35 year old body some time to rest? In each of the previous five years when he has had drastically worse numbers in the 2nd half vs. the 1st half, it doesn't look as though he had the opportunity to rest/reset. What if giving Means these next couple starts of Gibson's yields a rested and more productive Kyle Gibson? 

Sorry but this doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The season is almost over. You aren’t removing Gibson now to put him back in later in hopes that he is refreshed and ready to go for the playoffs.

If he’s out of the rotation now, he’s out for good unless someone completely falls on their face, there are injuries or GRod is showing signs of needing to be shut down.

Otherwise, Gibson is a long reliever and essentially a glorified cheerleader the rest of the year.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, banks703 said:

All of this is fair. Gibson overall has not been as bad as that 6.28 ERA but even at his career 4.58, there's room there for improvement to the rotation.

I have no idea what the O's are thinking with John Means but the reality is, he's going to have to be activated in the next 7 days. If they are planning to start him (which I think it's fair to suggest that's their plan given that he's gradually been stretched out over these five rehab starts) then I think it's prudent to ease him back into facing ML hitters. Looking at their remaining schedule, the Angels and the Cards offer the two best opportunities to introduce him to the rotation this year. If Means steps into Gibson's spot in the rotation, he would line up to face the Angels then the Cards in back to back starts. I can't think see a better way to acclimate him to start against ML hitters again. 

My advocating for Means to take some of Gibson's starts is only half because I think Means offers more potential than does Gibson but the other half is because Gibson has a history of fading in the second half, down the stretch. So, why not give his 35 year old body some time to rest? In each of the previous five years when he has had drastically worse numbers in the 2nd half vs. the 1st half, it doesn't look as though he had the opportunity to rest/reset. What if giving Means these next couple starts of Gibson's yields a rested and more productive Kyle Gibson? 

I think you are too focused on replacing Gibson.   Yes, I agree the are stretching Means out to come back as starter.   But Gibson is just one of the possible guys to be moved to the pen.   It could be Irvin or Flaherty.  The guy that is pitching the worst probably gets moved to the pen.

And hey its September.  Guys are tired.  We could see any of the pitchers not be able to control their pitches.  That is what seems to be happening to Gibson.  Pitches that he threw for strikes a month ago don't land the same place.  Maybe trying to go 6 o 7 innings high need to be 4 now.   With Means and Wells back to eat some innings there may some help from long men.

[banks703]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sorry but this doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The season is almost over. You aren’t removing Gibson now to put him back in later in hopes that he is refreshed and ready to go for the playoffs.

If he’s out of the rotation now, he’s out for good unless someone completely falls on their face, there are injuries or GRod is showing signs of needing to be shut down.

Otherwise, Gibson is a long reliever and essentially a glorified cheerleader the rest of the year.

Probably so but I think that with seven starter options in Bradish, GrayRod, Kremer, Flaherty, Gibson, Irvin and Means, and the 28 man roster now, plus the off-days and that a few of these guys have options, they can play musical chairs with the rotation to further reduce the workload these last four weeks. They could finagle things so that guys pitch once a week, skip starts, etc. etc. I'm not suggesting that they will, just that they could. I hope that they don't do that because I do think that Wells got out of whack by his routine being disrupted. He basically said as much without making excuses.

Gibson has done what they've asked him to do, which is to consume innings. I don't know that I'd consider his 5+ innings per start as gobbling them up but he's delivered what was expected of him. I just think that if John Means is appreciably better, that they have to do what is best for the team in pursuit of a division title and post season goals. Gibson got them through 4/5 of the season at the performance that he was paid to deliver. It's commendable but if there is a better option to take those innings, they should deploy it. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by banks703

[banks703]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you are too focused on replacing Gibson.   Yes, I agree the are stretching Means out to come back as starter.   But Gibson is just one of the possible guys to be moved to the pen.   It could be Irvin or Flaherty.  The guy that is pitching the worst probably gets moved to the pen.

And hey its September.  Guys are tired.  We could see any of the pitchers not be able to control their pitches.  That is what seems to be happening to Gibson.  Pitches that he threw for strikes a month ago don't land the same place.  Maybe trying to go 6 o 7 innings high need to be 4 now.   With Means and Wells back to eat some innings there may some help from long men.

We're harping on Gibson, sure but that's not necessarily my focus. Easing Means into the rotation by giving him Gibson's next two starts can be good for both of them. Maybe Gibson takes off the next two starts then comes back and supplants Bradish for a start, then Bradish comes back and takes a start from GrayRod...etc

It's more about running out your best option every night. If guys are tired from pitching beyond their previous career highs in innings, and the team has options to give them increased rest and it improves their effectiveness and health for the post-season, they should do it.

It seems like I'm harping on Gibson but it's simply that his performance is the easiest to upgrade. 

[MurphDogg]

22 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I think 40 man or 60 day IL

Not quite. They only have to be in the system on September 1st and can replace anyone on the 10 or 60 day IL. Which is why it isn't unheard of for players to make their debuts in the playoffs.

Source.

In a typical season, any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason.

Those on the restricted list at that point are also eligible if they haven't been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs during that season. (All players who have served a suspension for PEDs in a given season are ineligible for postseason play that year.)

A player who doesn't meet said criteria for postseason eligibility can still be added to a team's roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner's Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible.

Edited September 1, 2023 by MurphDogg