Fangraphs article on why their projections hate us

[ledzepp8]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then don't take it seriously.

 

I don't. I don't think anyone really is. People are making fun of Fangraphs for this kind of crap.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ledzepp8 said:

I don't. I don't think anyone really is. People are making fun of Fangraphs for this kind of crap.

I don't know.

I think some folks get honestly offended.

Some may even believe that they have a bias.

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know.

I think some folks get honestly offended.

Some may even believe that they have a bias.

Seems you get offended anytime someone criticizes them. You're always the first to rush to their defense.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Seems you get offended anytime someone criticizes them. You're always the first to rush to their defense.

If by rush to defend you mean point out they have a set projection that hasn't had a lot of luck with the O's this year, yea, I'm guilty.

I'm certainly not saying their projection has done a good job this year, just that they don't have some sort of bias.

The idea that they have some sort of ulterior motive to view the O's harshly in the simulations is laughable.

It's Baltimore victim syndrome at it's finest.

[DirtyBird]

[Malike]

19 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Honestly hard to argue with that. We're the great unknown. We're about to learn how good this team really is and so is everyone else. I still personally feel they are a year or two away from being much closer to the top. Vegas feels they are not the bottom of the ladder.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Malike

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

How any team can have lower odds than the Diamondbacks by any model is beyond me.  The lowest OPS, worst ERA, worst FIP, lowest bWAR...  Not saying they won't win it because anything can happen.  But how they don't have the longest odds is a head scratcher.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

How any team can have lower odds than the Diamondbacks by any model is beyond me.  The lowest OPS, worst ERA, worst FIP, lowest bWAR...  Not saying they won't win it because anything can happen.  But how they don't have the longest odds is a head scratcher.

Vegas has the Dbacks by far the lowest odds.

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

How any team can have lower odds than the Diamondbacks by any model is beyond me.  The lowest OPS, worst ERA, worst FIP, lowest bWAR...  Not saying they won't win it because anything can happen.  But how they don't have the longest odds is a head scratcher.

Whatever you do, don’t dare accuse FG of having an agenda or being biased… you might get accused of having a Baltimore inferiority complex. 

[Frobby]

I also don’t see how the Twins can have better odds than both the Rangers and the Orioles, considering how high Houston’s odds are.   

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I also don’t see how the Twins can have better odds than both the Rangers and the Orioles, considering how high Houston’s odds are.   

They don't.   Are you looking at the current odds column?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

They don't.   Are you looking at the current odds column?

I was talking about Fangraphs.  

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

They don't.   Are you looking at the current odds column?

He's looking at the Fangraphs numbers, not the betting odds

[dystopia]

40 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Whatever you do, don’t dare accuse FG of having an agenda or being biased… you might get accused of having a Baltimore inferiority complex. 

To be clear here, if it were another team that was having the Orioles’ season and FG was doing this to them instead, I’d say the exact same thing. 

[Hallas]

On 10/3/2023 at 3:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

If by rush to defend you mean point out they have a set projection that hasn't had a lot of luck with the O's this year, yea, I'm guilty.

I'm certainly not saying their projection has done a good job this year, just that they don't have some sort of bias.

The idea that they have some sort of ulterior motive to view the O's harshly in the simulations is laughable.

It's Baltimore victim syndrome at it's finest.

 

I agree that it's not *trying* to poo-poo the O's, or that it doesn't have some sort of ulterior motive, but for whatever reason Fangraphs has had difficulty projecting the Orioles even when they've been good over the past 10-12 years, so its easy to wonder IMO.  The rational response is that their model is having trouble capturing something that the O's are doing well.

 

The bias arguments are pretty laughable since one of the main guys (Szymborski) is a diehard O's fan AFAIK.