Who should come to the majors and when? Who should be traded?

[forphase1]

20 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Very few will go besides the impending free agents. They will give Urias, Mateo a chance to stick due to being cheap and GG type potential defense. This is our guys and they are not going to make irrational decisions based on 3 games. 

Moving on from Urias and Mateo would hardly be an irrational decision based on 3 games,  but due to the overall body of work from this past season.   That combined with the talent coming up is why we move on from them,  not because we got swept by the Rangers.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The Orioles should be making a trade, but there is a path where they don’t make any trades and have all of Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad on the Opening Day roster:

-If all are healthy, carry an extra position player (14) for the month of April with the increased number of off days. (Adley, Gunnar, Santander, Mullins, Hays, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Urias, Mateo, McCann). 

-Kjerstad, Cowser and O’Hearn play against RHP and Mountcastle, Hays and one of McCann/Mateo/Urias against LHP. 

-Any injuries to any non-catcher “fix the problem” of the extra position player. In the meantime, they have April to evaluate Kjerstad/Cowser.

-Mayo and Holliday start in the minors to be called up by trading deadline - at that point the team is better informed on how to make roster space (if needed) and what position they should be / are capable of playing. 

-Norby and Stowers remain in AAA as depth or are traded if there is value to be had. IMO both are 45 FV prospects that profile best as bench players, but still have some starting upside that could be capitalized on in trade. If not, no need to force the issue, Norby does not need to be on the 40-man yet and Stowers still has 2 option years remaining.

-Let Santander and O’Hearn walk as free agents after 2024 and that alleviates the “logjam.” They may be able to get a QO pick out of Santander. Basallo and Beavers are the only higher probability prospects coming from AA and lower.

I think that if they tender Santander a QO he takes the ~20 million.

Would you forfeit a draft pick to sign Santander?

[24fps]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The Orioles should be making a trade, but there is a path where they don’t make any trades and have all of Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad on the Opening Day roster:

-If all are healthy, carry an extra position player (14) for the month of April with the increased number of off days. (Adley, Gunnar, Santander, Mullins, Hays, O’Hearn, Mountcastle, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, Urias, Mateo, McCann). 

-Kjerstad, Cowser and O’Hearn play against RHP and Mountcastle, Hays and one of McCann/Mateo/Urias against LHP. 

-Any injuries to any non-catcher “fix the problem” of the extra position player. In the meantime, they have April to evaluate Kjerstad/Cowser.

-Mayo and Holliday start in the minors to be called up by trading deadline - at that point the team is better informed on how to make roster space (if needed) and what position they should be / are capable of playing. 

-Norby and Stowers remain in AAA as depth or are traded if there is value to be had. IMO both are 45 FV prospects that profile best as bench players, but still have some starting upside that could be capitalized on in trade. If not, no need to force the issue, Norby does not need to be on the 40-man yet and Stowers still has 2 option years remaining.

-Let Santander and O’Hearn walk as free agents after 2024 and that alleviates the “logjam.” They may be able to get a QO pick out of Santander. Basallo and Beavers are the only higher probability prospects coming from AA and lower.

Add Bradfield to Basallo and Beavers. 

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Sure, it’s a “possibility”.  He played 7 out of 317 career minor league games in the outfield (in an org busting at seams with IFers) and 0 in college*.  So yea, he has about a 0.02% chance I’d say.  
 

If it were a “legit possibility”, he’d of played more than 7 games out there.   
 

*He played 2 games in OF during college summer league play. 

And Holliday's has played a total of 25 games in his life at second, none in the OF.  I don't think anyone following the Orioles closely would think Elias/Hyde who value D up the middle would accept that.  Does the Mateo one game experiment mean anything, or Westburg (who plays all over) forgetting to duck on an important relay in the playoffs?  I'm not saying Holliday's not a possibility at 2b but not that early and certainly not in CF.

[DirtyBird]

46 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Very few will go besides the impending free agents. They will give Urias, Mateo a chance to stick due to being cheap and GG type potential defense. This is our guys and they are not going to make irrational decisions based on 3 games. 

Their replacements would also be cheap, for longer, with higher upside

[DirtyBird]

14 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

And Holliday's has played a total of 25 games in his life at second, none in the OF.  I don't think anyone following the Orioles closely would think Elias/Hyde who value D up the middle would accept that.  Does the Mateo one game experiment mean anything, or Westburg (who plays all over) forgetting to duck on an important relay in the playoffs?  I'm not saying Holliday's not a possibility at 2b but not that early and certainly not in CF.

Trae Turner played 6 games in OF and 7 at 2B in the minors, but then started 45 games in CF and 25 at 2B when he came up, to be part of a division winning team.

[CaptainRedbeard]

53 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Add Bradfield to Basallo and Beavers. 

That’s fair, I forgot about him because he is likely to be ready when Mullins is a free agent or shortly thereafter. He’s not likely to contribute to the glut of infielders and corner bars. 

[Dar]

Random,  but outside the box.  Put Holliday in center.  He has speed and his arm has to be better than Mullins.  
 

henderson at ss

Mayo at 3rd 

Westburg at 2nd 

norby at right

Kjerstad At fist with mountcastle

cowser at left 

Stowers the 4th outfielder 

Ortiz the utility 

[SemperFi]

10 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Trae Turner played 6 games in OF and 7 at 2B in the minors, but then started 45 games in CF and 25 at 2B when he came up, to be part of a division winning team.

That's a great example and there are perhaps a few more across MLB, Pete Reiser of Brooklyn and Mickey Mantle are a great ones if you want go back in history.  But that decision was not made by Elias/Hyde who are risk averse and view CF (especially) as a premium defensive position-witness the drafting of Bradfield.  Why do you think Hyde valued the defense of Hicks over Cowser/Kjerstad even McKenna? 

Turner was also not playing in 81 games in CY where there are essentially two centerfields.  What gets lost in this speculation is that Holliday even as the #1 prospect is just 19 years old and still growing and developing, guys like Turner or Ortiz were/are 3-4 years older.

[SemperFi]

5 minutes ago, Dar said:

Random,  but outside the box.  Put Holliday in center.  He has speed and his arm has to be better than Mullins.  
 

henderson at ss

Mayo at 3rd 

Westburg at 2nd 

norby at right

Kjerstad At fist with mountcastle

cowser at left 

Stowers the 4th outfielder 

Ortiz the utility 

Did you consult the pitching staff?   You would be giving up another 3-4 outs per game with the defense.......

[CaptainRedbeard]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if they tender Santander a QO he takes the ~20 million.

Would you forfeit a draft pick to sign Santander?

It depends on the season he has in 2024. It’s not a reason to trade or hold Santander, I’d estimate it’s something like a 25% chance he’ll warrant a QO. If his 2024 is similar or better than 2023 he would likely make more guaranteed at a lower AAV as a free agent than the 1/20M and would consider turning that down. 

I also think they could likely move Santander on a 1/20 deal if they needed to, and he wouldn’t be grossly overpaid if they kept him on it in theory. The issue would more be who that takes ABs away from.

Hard to predict now in any case. But I could definitely see the Orioles thinking that keeping Santander (and O’Hearn) around for one more year on their respective arb salaries while they are hoping to again be a playoff team is the right length for both of them. I’d still prefer a trade but it takes two to tango and I’m not expecting many motivated sellers on the trade market that match up with the O’s. 

[Frobby]

I think Mayo and Holliday start the year in AAA.   I agree either could be ready by June 1, but they’ll need to prove it.  

I’d like to  see Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz and Westburg all on the major league team.  None of them are off limits for a trade though.   

Norby and Stowers are trade bait, or they can be AAA depth.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

It depends on the season he has in 2024. It’s not a reason to trade or hold Santander, I’d estimate it’s something like a 25% chance he’ll warrant a QO. If his 2024 is similar or better than 2023 he would likely make more guaranteed at a lower AAV as a free agent than the 1/20M and would consider turning that down. 

I also think they could likely move Santander on a 1/20 deal if they needed to, and he wouldn’t be grossly overpaid if they kept him on it in theory. The issue would more be who that takes ABs away from.

Hard to predict now in any case. But I could definitely see the Orioles thinking that keeping Santander (and O’Hearn) around for one more year on their respective arb salaries while they are hoping to again be a playoff team is the right length for both of them. I’d still prefer a trade but it takes two to tango and I’m not expecting many motivated sellers on the trade market that match up with the O’s. 

I guess if he has some nuts outlier year it might make sense?  But it won't be a 25% probability season.  More like a top 5% projection.

I think odds are really good that he takes the 1/20 then hits the market in a year knowing he can't be tagged again.  As I asked earlier, would you give up a draft pick to give Santander a contract that is more tempting then  a 1/20 deal?  I wouldn't.

I don't think Elias, or Angelos, is interested in a surprise 20M addition to the payroll.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

53 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Their replacements would also be cheap, for longer, with higher upside

I’m guessing the Orioles have been a bit caught in the middle with Urias and Mateo where they think they are too valuable to DFA but haven’t gotten enough in return in trade offers to move them. They likely also want to keep them around in case they cash in some of the big infield prospects in a trade. This offseason is a critical inflection point because Ortiz has already well overstayed his welcome in AAA and both Holliday and Mayo are going to be at that point quickly, if they are not already. Something has to give.

Ortiz could be on the Opening Day roster with Holliday and Mayo in AAA until the trade deadline, but that’s just postponing the inevitable and could be detrimental to their 2024 postseason chances if Holliday and Mayo are the best options and being held in AAA due to roster crunch for the sake of keeping Urias and Mateo. 

[Dar]

12 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Did you consult the pitching staff?   You would be giving up another 3-4 outs per game with the defense.......

Outside of holiday playing cf,  I believe norby can do right field especially at Camden.  Other than that everyone has played in those positions.