Some potential moves for this offseason

[Sports Guy]

There are so many directions this team can go in this offseason. These are just a few ideas of the types of moves I would like to see:

1) Westburg for Woo

2) Cowser, Mountcastle, Norby, Kremer and Max Wagner for Robert, Jr and Christian Mena (his profile sounds like one the Os would like and could be a reliever very soon)  

This is a lot to give and I could see this trade backfiring but Robert has a team friendly 4 years left on his deal and he has big power and big upside. 

3)  Sign a starter.  This offseason, the starters that are interesting are Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Nola and ERod. You should be able to afford one of those guys. I think Snell is going to get too much. Nola would be my preference but I’m guessing he gets too much.  Any of the remaining guys have Enough warts that they could get 3 years or less and that’s the area the Os need to be in.

An under the radar name would be Maeda. He has some very nice stats. The issue with Maeda is that he has a real injury history and he’s tough to rely on. He’s a better version of Tyler Wells.

4) Sign Kimbrel. He will be coming off a 1/10 deal. If you can get him for 2 years or less, he gives you a vet back end of the pen presence. 
 

5) Trade Santander. One of the pieces I would be looking to add is a ML ready/close to ML ready (or already in the majors) BP piece that fits the traits of missing bats, good command and control, high strikeout type guy.  Should be able to get at least one other top 10 prospect as well.

6) Sign Henderson to a 7 year extension for 110-120M

7) Give Holliday an 8 year deal for around 100M.  Holliday makes the OD roster.

8. Mateo is traded or non tendered.

9) Mayo makes team out of ST

IF: Mayo/OHearn, Ortiz, Holliday, Gunnar, Urias

OF: Kjerstad, Mullins, Robert and Hays

C- Adley and McCann

DH- a rotation of guys with Kjerstad probably getting more at bats than anyone else.

SP: Bradish, GRod, Woo, Means, FA starter

BP: Kimbrel, Hall, Wells, Irvin, Coloumbe, Cano, Perez

That’s 24 players. One more in the pen…Competition between who you receive in trade and Tate.

Last player is likely to be an OFer. With Robert here, you don’t need someone who can play CF, so bringing back Hicks could work in this scenario.
 

Salary added from trades/signings

Robert- 12.5M

Kimbrel- 10-15M

FA starter- 12-20M

Salary subtracted from trades/non tenders:  Santander, Mateo, Mountcastle. That is about 18M of expected arb increases.

Payroll:

10 guys making league minimum…7.5

9 arb eligible guys- roughly 29M

3 “big” acquisitions: 35-48M

McCann- 4M

Last few spots are likely to be cheaper salaries. Just call those 3 spots a total of 4M (May be high but leave it at that).

Total payroll is in the area of 80-92M depending on the cost of the starter and Kimbrel.

 

[Matt Bennett]

There's a lot of beneficial moves in there. I'm expecting more of the same conservative roster construction.

1. Let Walk: Hicks, Frazier, Gibson, Flaherty, Fujinami

2. Trade: O'Hearn, Mateo (for scraps - I don't really care if he's the 13th man that plays twice a month)

3. Sign: 1 Starter, 1 Reliever. Let's hope for large upgrades over Kyle Gibson and Mychal Givens. Time to pay up. 

4. Call Up: Cowser, Ortiz. 

5. Holliday and Mayo knocking on the door and an additional trade could be made mid-season to accommodate their call-up. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

There's a lot of beneficial moves in there. I'm expecting more of the same conservative roster construction.

1. Let Walk: Hicks, Frazier, Gibson, Flaherty, Fujinami

2. Trade: O'Hearn, Mateo (for scraps - I don't really care if he's the 13th man that plays twice a month)

3. Sign: 1 Starter, 1 Reliever. Let's hope for large upgrades over Kyle Gibson and Mychal Givens. Time to pay up. 

4. Call Up: Cowser, Ortiz. 

5. Holliday and Mayo knocking on the door and an additional trade could be made mid-season to accommodate their call-up. 

I would agree that a more conservative approach is likely than what I’m saying here but I think that’s a big mistake. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[backwardsk]

Good post. A few counterpoints.

I have a tough time seeing a team give up a top 10 prospect and a bullpen piece that’s any good for one year of Santander while paying him $12M. Maybe a team with a poor system whose backend top 10 wouldn’t crack Baltimore’s top 40.  I wouldn’t expect him to return, but I don’t see much trade value in him. 

I don’t see much incentive for Holliday to do that deal as he has a really good chance to make $100M or more over the next eight seasons anyway.

I don’t see see ERod or Montgomery signing for three years or less unless they are nine figure deals. I’d be really surprised if any of the starters you mentioned getting less than $20M AAV (except maybe Stroman, unless they get a crazy number of years to lower it like Trea Turner’s deal).

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Good post. A few counterpoints.

I have a tough time seeing a team give up a top 10 prospect and a bullpen piece that’s any good for one year of Santander while paying him $12M. Maybe a team with a poor system whose backend top 10 wouldn’t crack Baltimore’s top 40.  I wouldn’t expect him to return, but I don’t see much trade value in him. 

I don’t see much incentive for Holliday to do that deal as he has a really good chance to make $100M or more over the next eight seasons anyway.

I don’t see see ERod or Montgomery signing for three years or less unless they are nine figure deals. I’d be really surprised if any of the starters you mentioned getting less than $20M AAV (except maybe Stroman, unless they get a crazy number of years to lower it like Trea Turner’s deal).

Holliday will only make 50ishM the next 7 seasons if the Os don’t call him up and wait long enough to bring him up so that you gain the extra year and he doesn’t likely play enough to get ROY top 2, ala Adley.

In this scenario, he starts his clock now and we essentially get 2 FA years for about 25M a year.

This definitely pays him more money and allows him to sign his FA deal for his age 28 season.

Just like we saw with some guys this past offseason, there are enough pitchers available that some guys will fall through the cracks.  I agree Stroman is likely but someone else probably will too.

For the right guy, I may go 4 years. I will not go any longer than that unless the AAV is stupid cheap, which isn’t happening.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

There are so many directions this team can go in this offseason. These are just a few ideas of the types of moves I would like to see:

1) Westburg for Woo

2) Cowser, Mountcastle, Norby, Kremer and Max Wagner for Robert, Jr and Christian Mena (his profile sounds like one the Os would like and could be a reliever very soon)  

This is a lot to give and I could see this trade backfiring but Robert has a team friendly 4 years left on his deal and he has big power and big upside. 

3)  Sign a starter.  This offseason, the starters that are interesting are Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Nola and ERod. You should be able to afford one of those guys. I think Snell is going to get too much. Nola would be my preference but I’m guessing he gets too much.  Any of the remaining guys have Enough warts that they could get 3 years or less and that’s the area the Os need to be in.

An under the radar name would be Maeda. He has some very nice stats. The issue with Maeda is that he has a real injury history and he’s tough to rely on. He’s a better version of Tyler Wells.

4) Sign Kimbrel. He will be coming off a 1/10 deal. If you can get him for 2 years or less, he gives you a vet back end of the pen presence. 
 

5) Trade Santander. One of the pieces I would be looking to add is a ML ready/close to ML ready (or already in the majors) BP piece that fits the traits of missing bats, good command and control, high strikeout type guy.  Should be able to get at least one other top 10 prospect as well.

6) Sign Henderson to a 7 year extension for 110-120M

7) Give Holliday an 8 year deal for around 100M.  Holliday makes the OD roster.

8. Mateo is traded or non tendered.

9) Mayo makes team out of ST

IF: Mayo/OHearn, Ortiz, Holliday, Gunnar, Urias

OF: Kjerstad, Mullins, Robert and Hays

C- Adley and McCann

DH- a rotation of guys with Kjerstad probably getting more at bats than anyone else.

SP: Bradish, GRod, Woo, Means, FA starter

BP: Kimbrel, Hall, Wells, Irvin, Coloumbe, Cano, Perez

That’s 24 players. One more in the pen…Competition between who you receive in trade and Tate.

Last player is likely to be an OFer. With Robert here, you don’t need someone who can play CF, so bringing back Hicks could work in this scenario.
 

Salary added from trades/signings

Robert- 12.5M

Kimbrel- 10-15M

FA starter- 12-20M

Salary subtracted from trades/non tenders:  Santander, Mateo, Mountcastle. That is about 18M of expected arb increases.

Payroll:

10 guys making league minimum…7.5

9 arb eligible guys- roughly 29M

3 “big” acquisitions: 35-48M

McCann- 4M

Last few spots are likely to be cheaper salaries. Just call those 3 spots a total of 4M (May be high but leave it at that).

Total payroll is in the area of 80-92M depending on the cost of the starter and Kimbrel.

 

I think #1 is way too much…..2 solid major leaguers, 2 of our top 10,and a top 15.

Im not saying Kremer gets it done but he’s been brilliant in windows.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think #1 is way too much…..2 solid major leaguers, 2 of our top 10,and a top 15.

Im not saying Kremer gets it done but he’s been brilliant in windows.

You mean #2 is too much?

[backwardsk]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday will only make 50ishM the next 7 seasons if the Os don’t call him up and wait long enough to bring him up so that you gain the extra year and he doesn’t likely play enough to get ROY top 2, ala Adley.

In this scenario, he starts his clock now and we essentially get 2 FA years for about 25M a year.

This definitely pays him more money and allows him to sign his FA deal for his age 28 season.

Just like we saw with some guys this past offseason, there are enough pitchers available that some guys will fall through the cracks.  I agree Stroman is likely but someone else probably will too.

For the right guy, I may go 4 years. I will not go any longer than that unless the AAV is stupid cheap, which isn’t happening.

Let’s assume that he makes $50M for his controlled years. Then he hits FA. Is it unrealistic to think he could have an AAV of $50M in 2031? 
 

Scherzer signed for $30M AAV (with deferrals) in 2015. Judge signed for $40M in 2023. It’s not a leap to think an under 30 year old FA gets $50M a year in the 2030s.

As for $50M in his controlled years, Soto is going to make over $80M if he doesn’t sign an extension this offseason. I can’t point to other cases. I think $50M is a good number to plug in, but it could end up being significantly higher.

For a guy who had a 1:1 signing bonus and a dad who made $160M in his career, I don’t see an 8/100 deal as an incentive to delay his freedom to choose where he plays.

For the pitching, I could see Gray getting a short term contract but a high AAV. He’s talked about retiring this offseason. I could see him having interest in coming here, but I don’t know if $20M gets it done.

 

 

 

 

[Spy Fox]

I also thought #2 seemed steep, but simultaneously that the Sox might prefer a more prospect-heavy, less MLB-heavy return. 

Not sure how much of a rebuild they are heading for. If we were in their current position, we wouldn't be targeting guys like Mountcastle and Kremer. 

[G54377]

I do think Seattle is a good trade partner. Seems like we match up well, if we want to pick up another young controlable starter.

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean #2 is too much?

Yeah sorry 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Mariners are a good trade partner but may be more interested in Kjerstad/Cowser than Westburg/Ortiz. They don’t have much in the corner OF but have Crawford long term at SS, 1 yr + option for Suarez at 3B and got decent production from Caballero & Rojas at 2B. 

Robert Jr is pretty much the only big name with multiple years of control on a team that should be a motivated seller. However we don’t know if CWS will sell, and if they do they are going to want 2+ blue chippers. He’d have a big market and I don’t think you get him for that package. 

Looks to me like a pretty barren trade market for making a big splash if SD keeps Soto. The only teams that are likely to be rebuilding are WAS, OAK and KC.  Nobody that is both appealing & likely to be available on those rosters. LAA, CWS and COL should rebuild, but they are pretty directionless franchises that have been resistant to doing that. DET and PIT are on the upswing (or at least likely think they are) and STL is reloading, so none of those 3 are likely to be selling anybody off. Every other team was either in contention this year (and likely expects to be again next year) or are big market teams which are never sellers. 

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I also thought #2 seemed steep, but simultaneously that the Sox might prefer a more prospect-heavy, less MLB-heavy return. 

Not sure how much of a rebuild they are heading for. If we were in their current position, we wouldn't be targeting guys like Mountcastle and Kremer. 

Yea I thought about that too and agree that may be the way they want to go.

Kremer is still cheap for a while. Mounty is cheap this year and borderline cheap in 2025. I guess it would depend on how full rebuild they want to go or if they would also take some controllable ML assets as well.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The Mariners are a good trade partner but may be more interested in Kjerstad/Cowser than Westburg/Ortiz. They don’t have much in the corner OF but have Crawford long term at SS, 1 yr + option for Suarez at 3B and got decent production from Caballero & Rojas at 2B. 

Robert Jr is pretty much the only big name with multiple years of control on a team that should be a motivated seller. However we don’t know if CWS will sell, and if they do they are going to want 2+ blue chippers. He’d have a big market and I don’t think you get him for that package. 

Looks to me like a pretty barren trade market for making a big splash if SD keeps Soto. The only teams that are likely to be rebuilding are WAS, OAK and KC.  Nobody that is both appealing & likely to be available on those rosters. LAA, CWS and COL should rebuild, but they are pretty directionless franchises that have been resistant to doing that. DET and PIT are on the upswing (or at least likely think they are) and STL is reloading, so none of those 3 are likely to be selling anybody off. Every other team was either in contention this year (and likely expects to be again next year) or are big market teams which are never sellers. 

The problem with Robert, despite his immense talent and contract, is that this is the only year of his career where he even played 100 games (he obviously couldn’t help 2020)

If they want to trade him, I think that keeps his value down somewhat. Still, they are getting a consensus top 25 guy, a player many have had in the top 100 and another prospect who some have said could be a top 100 guy next year and he has decent upside.

Plus the 2 MLers that are coming off good years.

I could see them saying they want a guy like Beavers or a player like Creed Willems over one of the MLers.  Give them another higher upside prospect.

[Aristotelian]

I disagree with trading Santander. He is very important to our lineup. He is a strong candidate for QO and comp pick which would be more valuable than anything we can get in trade. If he accepts we get another year of a switch hitter who is money in the bank for 25-30 HR. I guess I would have to consider it if the return is like what you're saying but I'd rather just spend the money on a Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson than trade Santander for a bullpen arm.

If CWS would do something around Cowser I would be interested. I doubt it, but I would be interested. I'd like to keep Kremer out of it if possible, just can't have too much pitching.