Some potential moves for this offseason

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he has the same level in interest in playing defense as Ted Williams did.

Then it’s convenient that “modern day Ted Williams” is one of his best comps as a hitter.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Then it’s convenient that “modern day Ted Williams” is one of his best comps as a hitter.

Sure, I'm not dismissing the bat at all.

Just saying that IMO, you have to just assume he gets the vast majority of the DH at bats.

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I'm not dismissing the bat at all.

Just saying that IMO, you have to just assume he gets the vast majority of the DH at bats.

That’s fine, he’s such a good hitter and still so young that he’d be well worth a massive deal even as a DH. And he’s still likely a handful of years away from hitting that point. If anything, it makes his career arc more predictable as he’s not going to start losing a big chunk of value whenever his athleticism declines.

[Rbiggs2525]

11 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

That’s fine, he’s such a good hitter and still so young that he’d be well worth a massive deal even as a DH. And he’s still likely a handful of years away from hitting that point. If anything, it makes his career arc more predictable as he’s not going to start losing a big chunk of value whenever his athleticism declines.

He can play right field at Camden Yards for 81 games. Yankee Stadium and Blue Jays field are not very big as well. Fenway you can put him in LF like they do Yoshida. My first conversation with him would be about flexibility. He seems a bit tight muscled and I think there is room for improvement. I spent a bunch of time looking at hitters that have the IT factor. There are not as many as there use to be. Most championship teams have that player. Gunnar could eventually be that player but I believe that is 50/50. Also if you make this move then you can definitely trade for affordable young pitching. 
 

 

[Yardball85]

On 10/13/2023 at 10:16 AM, Sports Guy said:

I would agree that a more conservative approach is likely than what I’m saying here but I think that’s a big mistake. 

Love your suggestions.  But I agree, John Angelos is goin to soak in every ounce of good will from this season, tell us to "trust him" and continue being cheap.  Expecting Kyle Gibson Part II and a Givens type reliever. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:

Love your suggestions.  But I agree, John Angelos is goin to soak in every ounce of good will from this season, tell us to "trust him" and continue being cheap.  Expecting Kyle Gibson Part II and a Givens type reliever. 

Should that happen - and I'm not saying it won't - then you can kiss Mike Elias goodbye the moment his current contract is up.  I have to think that during the interview process, Elias sold John Angelos on the Astros rebuild game plan and five years later that's what he's delivered, step-by-step.  The Astros' successful World Series push came after the first two winning seasons of the rebuild (2015-2016) and in 2017 they spent to win.  2016 OD payroll was 30th in the ML at $69 million and rose to $124.3 million in 2017 which was 18th.  In 2018 it was 11th at $160 million.  It's been above league average every year since.

John Angelos knows the road map and he bought the trip five years ago.  Of course, nothing in this argument guarantees that he won't try to be a cheap weasel anyway, but IMO it would be naive to think that the O's success hasn't been planned out with JA's full participation.  So the 2023-2024 off season is the first clear put up or shut up time for Orioles ownership.  The team has given him no place to hide; it's time to write a couple of checks.  I think we fans might still be disappointed, but I don't believe we're in line for Gibson and Givens part 2.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

Should that happen - and I'm not saying it won't - then you can kiss Mike Elias goodbye the moment his current contract is up.  I have to think that during the interview process, Elias sold John Angelos on the Astros rebuild game plan and five years later that's what he's delivered, step-by-step.  The Astros' successful World Series push came after the first two winning seasons of the rebuild (2015-2016) and in 2017 they spent to win.  2016 OD payroll was 30th in the ML at $69 million and rose to $124.3 million in 2017 which was 18th.  In 2018 it was 11th at $160 million.  It's been above league average every year since.

John Angelos knows the road map and he bought the trip five years ago.  Of course, nothing in this argument guarantees that he won't try to be a cheap weasel anyway, but IMO it would be naive to think that the O's success hasn't been planned out with JA's full participation.  So the 2023-2024 off season is the first clear put up or shut up time for Orioles ownership.  The team has given him no place to hide; it's time to write a couple of checks.  I think we fans might still be disappointed, but I don't believe we're in line for Gibson and Givens part 2.

I think this is spot on. But I still have no idea what we get. I do admit to feeling a bit like Christmas. Trying to not get overly excited. 

[btdart20]

On 10/18/2023 at 11:09 AM, Frobby said:

I’m not so sure.  The Padres appear to be losing money hand over fist.  You can choose to do that for a short period to “go for it,” but that doesn’t really work as a long term business model.  

It's funny how a year changes "our" perspective.  When the Padres "traded the farm" and went over their skiis with payroll, it was considered praise-worthy.  Now it's considered foolhardy.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

Should that happen - and I'm not saying it won't - then you can kiss Mike Elias goodbye the moment his current contract is up.  I have to think that during the interview process, Elias sold John Angelos on the Astros rebuild game plan and five years later that's what he's delivered, step-by-step.  The Astros' successful World Series push came after the first two winning seasons of the rebuild (2015-2016) and in 2017 they spent to win.  2016 OD payroll was 30th in the ML at $69 million and rose to $124.3 million in 2017 which was 18th.  In 2018 it was 11th at $160 million.  It's been above league average every year since.

John Angelos knows the road map and he bought the trip five years ago.  Of course, nothing in this argument guarantees that he won't try to be a cheap weasel anyway, but IMO it would be naive to think that the O's success hasn't been planned out with JA's full participation.  So the 2023-2024 off season is the first clear put up or shut up time for Orioles ownership.  The team has given him no place to hide; it's time to write a couple of checks.  I think we fans might still be disappointed, but I don't believe we're in line for Gibson and Givens part 2.

I love how half the people are convinced they know (1) what Elias wants to do this offseason, (2) what Angelos will let him do, (3) exactly what the two of them discussed about how the rebuild would work when Elias was hired, and (4) what Elias will do if he feels Angelos isn’t letting him do everything he wants.  

Truth is, we don’t have a clue about any of these four things.   But to date, there’s never been a single sign that Elias is dissatisfied with what he’s been able to do or his relationship with Angelos.  
 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's funny how a year changes "our" perspective.  When the Padres "traded the farm" and went over their skiis with payroll, it was considered praise-worthy.  Now it's considered foolhardy.  

I never understood how they planned to bankroll last winter’s spending spree.   But look, their owners are entitled to subsidize the team if they want.  I just don’t think many owners, if any, do that on a long term basis.  They might do it for 1-3 years if they think they can win a title in that span and recoup some of that investment on the back end.  

[SemperFi]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love how half the people are convinced they know (1) what Elias wants to do this offseason, (2) what Angelos will let him do, (3) exactly what the two of them discussed about how the rebuild would work when Elias was hired, and (4) what Elias will do if he feels Angelos isn’t letting him do everything he wants.  

Truth is, we don’t have a clue about any of these four things.   But to date, there’s never been a single sign that Elias is dissatisfied with what he’s been able to do or his relationship with Angelos.  
 

I tend to agree with this.  We do know Elias is paid handsomely "highest paid first time GM", has total autonomy over staffing and baseball issues (not often the case) and other than staff meetings likely only deals with JA over budgets.  His current contract likely runs concurrent to Hyde's and if his vision especially financial (LT,ST) didn't align with ownership or if they had a poor working relationship, he likely would have left then-he had (has) plenty of options.  However, I really don't think he enjoys having to explain away JA's bonehead statements!!

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I love how half the people are convinced they know (1) what Elias wants to do this offseason, (2) what Angelos will let him do, (3) exactly what the two of them discussed about how the rebuild would work when Elias was hired, and (4) what Elias will do if he feels Angelos isn’t letting him do everything he wants.  

Truth is, we don’t have a clue about any of these four things.   But to date, there’s never been a single sign that Elias is dissatisfied with what he’s been able to do or his relationship with Angelos.  
 

This is the Orioles Hangout.  Not only that, it's a thread on the Orioles Hangout started by Sports Guy.  If people can't come here to theorize with a tone of complete authority, then what has the world come to?

As to the thoughts of mine you responded to, of course they're speculative, but it's a long offseason and most of us believe the O's have reached an inflection point after years on the outside, so why not project a little?  Mike Elias is a product of the Houston organization and so far his game plan for the Orioles has been remarkably consistent with Houston's established success.  That could be coincidence, but unless you think Elias came to Baltimore solely to help further line John Angelos' pockets - and I don't - then it stands to reason that when the time comes, further resources will be made available as was the case with the Astros.  We will have a much clearer understanding by opening day regardless.

My original post was prompted by one of the things I don't love and that's all the reflexive cynicism on the subject of John Angelos, not that I'm suggesting you're guilty of that.  I get it, but cynicism is lazy to it's core and I think it's a lot healthier to work a little harder to come up with some positive scenarios to build on this season's very welcome progress.

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, 24fps said:

Should that happen - and I'm not saying it won't - then you can kiss Mike Elias goodbye the moment his current contract is up.  I have to think that during the interview process, Elias sold John Angelos on the Astros rebuild game plan and five years later that's what he's delivered, step-by-step.  The Astros' successful World Series push came after the first two winning seasons of the rebuild (2015-2016) and in 2017 they spent to win.  2016 OD payroll was 30th in the ML at $69 million and rose to $124.3 million in 2017 which was 18th.  In 2018 it was 11th at $160 million.  It's been above league average every year since.

John Angelos knows the road map and he bought the trip five years ago.  Of course, nothing in this argument guarantees that he won't try to be a cheap weasel anyway, but IMO it would be naive to think that the O's success hasn't been planned out with JA's full participation.  So the 2023-2024 off season is the first clear put up or shut up time for Orioles ownership.  The team has given him no place to hide; it's time to write a couple of checks.  I think we fans might still be disappointed, but I don't believe we're in line for Gibson and Givens part 2.

Carefully reasoned,analytic, precise and rational.  Your argument is everything John Angelos is not.   Yes, the likelihood is we get Gibson/Givens redux and the extremely unlikely outcome is a budgetary payroll increase like the Astros did. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

It's funny how a year changes "our" perspective.  When the Padres "traded the farm" and went over their skiis with payroll, it was considered praise-worthy.  Now it's considered foolhardy.  

Food for thought, but would it still be considered that if they had won the World Series the last 3 seasons?

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

It's funny how a year changes "our" perspective.  When the Padres "traded the farm" and went over their skiis with payroll, it was considered praise-worthy.  Now it's considered foolhardy.  

You have an extremely wealthy owner who is a two time cancer survivor.

I'll still praise him for trying to spend his way to a title.

Near as I can tell the plan was never to sustain this level of spending long term.

Beats not spending at all and pocketing revenue sharing money.