Key stats that need to improve

[btdart20]

I see a few threads about solutions but not many threads about what to address.  Last year the guys we added offensively had a schtick.  Frazier was a low K% with a chance at a bounce-back Babip slant to him.  Hicks was a similar opportunistic play.  O'Hearn was an anti-shift play.  

What are some key areas that you think will be addressed to improve the team?

Offensively, on the surface, we had the 7^th highest runs per game.  Which is solid.  But some of that was propped up by also having the 5^th lowest strand rate offensively.  Some of it may be attributable to low K% and mature PAs to some extent.  But I have to think our “clutchiness” will regress.  And if so, our runs per game will drop too.  

Two areas I think we need to address:   .166 ISO (15th) and .321 in OBP (16th)  Then I asked myself what would it take to get these over .180 and .330 (well into the top 10 of each stats).  Obviously, there are tons of paths and more than one way to build a winning/competitive team.  (And these are output stats, not input metrics that they'll be looking at.)

Nearly 20% of our team PAs were taken by these 3 hitters:

Frazier - .300 OBP and .155 ISO over 455 PAs - won’t be back. 

Mateo - .267 OBP and .123 ISO over 350 PAs

Urias - .328 OBP and .111 ISO over 396 PAs

I really don't see Mateo and Urias back.  Maybe both aren't back.  Can the ‘winner’ exceed a .150+ ISO and .325+ OBP?  Can more than one do it?  What if we just care about the post-AS break stats into October 2024?  Westburg posted a .144 ISO and .311 OBP in his 228 PA adjustment period.  I tend to think Holliday can post a .325 OBP in his sleep.  Same with Mayo having an ISO over .150.  Can they carry water in other buckets too?  

LF Hays - .325 OBP and .169 ISO over 566 PAs.  That’s about the team's average.  But he had a healthy .345 Babip.  Even with some regression, he is a contributor with a career slash line of .262/.314/.437.  However, org build wise, I think we can backfill him in 2024 easier than Santander with Cowser/Norby/HK.  That crew needs the MLB-level development/weeding out/opportunity.  I think that Hays will be packaged in a trade this off-season.  

CF Mullins had a rough year.  His spray chart is very pull-heavy compared to 2022 and even 2021.  His statcast expected data, barrels, and EV, all seem fairly constant except LA spiked to 21.6.  Which is probably the layer behind his low Babip.  He was hitting lower in the lineup for a big chunk of the year, so maybe they were fostering that power approach.  He’ll probably still hit lower in the lineup, but that doesn’t mean he has to be a 20+ HR guy to contribute offensively.  If his Babip normalizes, his .305 OBP can easily get back above the .318 OBP he posted in 2022 (.360 OBP in 2021 for that context too). 

That's about 1500ish PAs to noobs.  Or about 25% of the team PAs.  And 3 RHH from an already thin side of the dish.

If they bring in a position FA, I suspect it's an OFer (Soler/Duvall type) with paths to the stats above.  But that also makes me think they have other deals lined up too.  

Obviously, defensive and baserunning fits are needed as well.  But they are much more difficult to quantify, at least for me.

 

On the pitching side, the last two years we've added Lyles/Gibson to bring IP.  I don't think that's a key metric this year.  We've got MLB quality depth.  The bullpen saw us add quite a few arms with guys like Bautista, Cano, Perez, and Coulombe looking strong (and a few misses, most notably Givens).

 

As a team, they were 5^th in FIP (TBR, SEA, MIN, SFG), 8^th in WHIP, 7^th in RA/G.  12th in K% and 8^th, 7th in BB%, and 9th in K-BB%.

But we were also 7^th lowest Babip against and 7^th highest in LOB%.  I have to think the RA/G will go up if Babip/LOB% “normalize” a bit.  The best case that supports the low Babip/high LOB% Is that we’re 4^th best/lowest Hard% (on FGs Batted Ball).  In other words, we’re doing something generally correct limiting hard hits.  But the HH% is 5^th highest on the FG statcast screen (which I thought was about the same thing)…  Can anyone help with the difference?

FG has an interesting team pitch-level data page that shows movement.  It’s interesting that, as a team, none of our pitches (collectively) have extreme horizontal movement.  Vertical movement though, we’re 3th (behind TBR and HOU) for 4S vertical/ride, 1^st in splitter drop, and 7^th in changeup drop. If we have a type, it’s about changing the eye level.  Any FA SPs match that description with some warts on the resume?

 

K% and BB% are two key stats.  There are output stats, not input metrics.  Because a guy like Lopez looks top-shelf with these two stats.

Means, Gibson, Irvin, and Kremer are below the team average of 23.5% K%.  Kremer is the closest one to team average 7.8% BB% (with a 7.5%).  The rest of the non-Bradish/Grayson SPs are lower than team average as you'd expect.  And Gibson's 192 IP/33 GS with his 19.5% K% and 6.8% BB% will need to be replaced anyway.  

If we're looking to upgrade SPs, I think Kremer (packaged with Hays and likely more) is a good start to improving the back half of the rotation.

I do think we have a mountain-sized hole in the back of the BP that is a much bigger priority.  His 46.4% K% is irreplaceable.  But there are a few solid FA BP arms available and we'll need more than one IMO.