SP Trade Market

[CaptainRedbeard]

Behind the Mariners, the Tigers may be the most ideal trade partner. In addition to Skubal, they may try to keep Eduardo Rodriguez (given inability to deal him at the deadline), and have Reese Olson and Sawyer Gibson-long as high upside arms to go along with some other back-end options. They also have holes all over their infield and outfield and could be a team to value guys like Stowers and Norby, and are not likely to view themselves as full-rebuild mode so they’ll emphasize those types of MLB-ready prospects.

With 3 years of control remaining, if Skubal hadn’t gotten injured then I could see a big deal of something like Westburg or Ortiz, Kjerstad or Cowser, Norby and Stowers being a package that works for both sides. But with Skubal’s injury history I don’t know the appetite the Orioles have for pushing so many trade chips in on one player, and I doubt the Tigers will be willing to trade him for anything less than a haul. 

[zweem]

Skubal already had his TJ---- Westburg, Cowser, Norby  and Stowers????   I'd do it.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

27 minutes ago, zweem said:

Skubal already had his TJ---- Westburg, Cowser, Norby  and Stowers????   I'd do it.

 

Not sure about his injury history in the minors, but in 2022 through first half of 2023 it was recovery for flexor tendon surgery and not TJ. Definitely scary that TJ could still be in his future. But the upside is ridiculous and the injury and Detroit’s many position player needs could be the only reason the Tigers consider dealing him. If Skubal never got hurt and had a full season last year on par with what he did in those 15 starts last year, that package wouldn’t even come close. 

[Can_of_corn]

40 minutes ago, zweem said:

Skubal already had his TJ---- Westburg, Cowser, Norby  and Stowers????   I'd do it.

 

Guys that have had TJ are not exempt from needing TJ in the future.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, zweem said:

Skubal already had his TJ---- Westburg, Cowser, Norby  and Stowers????   I'd do it.

 

You can’t. 
 

His stats are awesome and the statcast data is excellent but it was a small sample size in 2023 and the stats have been very good in the past but not the level we saw in 80 innings this year.

I just don’t see how you can have both Westburg and Cowser in this deal for a player with so many issues staying healthy. He is about to turn 27, so it’s not like he’s 24 or something.

It makes no sense for Detroit to trade him. First of all they could win their division next year. Secondly, his value isn’t as high as it could be and I don’t think you trade an asset like this when they aren’t at peak value. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can’t. 
 

His stats are awesome and the statcast data is excellent but it was a small sample size in 2023 and the stats have been very good in the past but not the level we saw in 80 innings this year.

I just don’t see how you can have both Westburg and Cowser in this deal for a player with so many issues staying healthy. He is about to turn 27, so it’s not like he’s 24 or something.

It makes no sense for Detroit to trade him. First of all they could win their division next year. Secondly, his value isn’t as high as it could be and I don’t think you trade an asset like this when they aren’t at peak value. 

Sometimes "peak value" never happens.

Oops turns out last offseason was peak value.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

They didn't get us consistent offensive production

You’re really a glass half empty guy, aren’t you?   Hays had a 114 OPS+, Mountcastle a 117.   Yeah, both guys were streaky.   Bottom line, they were both well above average hitters.   Most players are not metronomes.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sometimes "peak value" never happens.

Oops turns out last offseason was peak value.

Agree with this. We’ll never know how Detroit feels about it and it’s unlikely they’ll trade Skubal for all the reasons Sports Guy said, but they could view this as a sell high opportunity for him. His trade value is likely only going to decrease as his years of control run down and he’s coming off a half season of insane dominance. There’s some similarities to when the Orioles traded Bedard.

And Sports Guy is right that Detroit could be in contention for their division right now (or at least they could think so), but their optimal “window” doesn’t necessarily line up with how much longer they have Skubal.

Plus, with both Norby and Stowers the Orioles could trade 3-4 MLB-ready starting position players for 2024 that are much better than Detroit’s current internal options and it wouldn’t really put a dent in the 2024 Orioles. As good as Skubal is, that deal could definitely increase Detroit’s 2024 playoff odds more than a single SP, especially considering their rotation is not barren behind Skubal (particularly if Ed Rod is retained or his $ is allocated to a different FA).

Ideally the Orioles could make it happen with just one of Westburg/Ortiz/Kjerstad/Cowser as the headliner, supplemented by Norby and Stowers, and instead add in other prospects in the “Beavers or lower” tiers, but I don’t think Detroit goes for that. 

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’re really a glass half empty guy, aren’t you?   Hays had a 114 OPS+, Mountcastle a 117.   Yeah, both guys were streaky.   Bottom line, they were both well above average hitters.   Most players are not metronomes.  

But what would be the net upgrade for Seattle by adding those two bats? Hays is maybe a marginal upgrade over their current LF options, and a Mountcastle level bat could probably be found for a modest price in free agency. I doubt they would lure in a mid to top rotation starting pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sometimes "peak value" never happens.

Oops turns out last offseason was peak value.

I’m aware but some gambles are better than others.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

But what would be the net upgrade for Seattle by adding those two bats? Hays is maybe a marginal upgrade over their current LF options, and a Mountcastle level bat could probably be found for a modest price in free agency. I doubt they would lure in a mid to top rotation starting pitcher.

Mancini got 2/14, how'd that go for the Cubs?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

But what would be the net upgrade for Seattle by adding those two bats? Hays is maybe a marginal upgrade over their current LF options, and a Mountcastle level bat could probably be found for a modest price in free agency. I doubt they would lure in a mid to top rotation starting pitcher.

Well, I probably agree with that, unless Seattle has payroll constraints.   They ran a $128 mm payroll last year that was their highest in 5 years, but still $44 mm below their peak spending in 2017.   So I doubt payroll is a big factor for them right now.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mancini got 2/14, how'd that go for the Cubs?

And the free agent market for hitters is truly atrocious. Here’s the full list of hitters with as much or more fWAR in 2024 than Hays at 2.2:

Ohtani 9.0

Chapman 3.5

Candelario 3.3

Belt 2.3

Heyward 2.2

Kiermaier 2.2

JD Martinez 2.2

And not much inspiring between that and Mountcastle at 1.7: Mitch Garver, Lourdes Guerriel, Adam Duvall, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Carlos Santana, Michael Taylor.

Basically, a lot of old players on the precipice of decline you could hope to squeeze a little more out of, or mediocre/flawed age 30ish guys who will get paid a lot considering the weakness of this market. 

[DirtyBird]

21 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

And the free agent market for hitters is truly atrocious. Here’s the full list of hitters with as much or more fWAR in 2024 than Hays at 2.2:

Ohtani 9.0

Chapman 3.5

Candelario 3.3

Belt 2.3

Heyward 2.2

Kiermaier 2.2

JD Martinez 2.2

And not much inspiring between that and Mountcastle at 1.7: Mitch Garver, Lourdes Guerriel, Adam Duvall, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Carlos Santana, Michael Taylor.

Basically, a lot of old players on the precipice of decline you could hope to squeeze a little more out of, or mediocre/flawed age 30ish guys who will get paid a lot considering the weakness of this market. 

So, would you rather sign JD Martinez, or give up a starting pitcher for Ryan Mountcastle?

[CaptainRedbeard]

21 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

So, would you rather sign JD Martinez, or give up a starting pitcher for Ryan Mountcastle?

Depends on the starting pitcher, your other starting pitchers you aren’t trading, and your payroll. JD Martinez will be 37 next year and will probably want something like $15M after getting $10M last year coming off a down year. Mountcastle is due 3 years of arbitration salaries and can play 1B.

Martinez is also by far the best “still good but old enough to sign a 1-2 year deal” option. Once he’s picked up, there’s Belt (who is speculated to retire) and then the far less inspiring Pham, Heyward and Carlos Santana. Mountcastle projects to be a better player in 2024 than those last 3, notwithstanding the difference in salary and years of control.