What would extensions for Bradish and Rodriguez look like?

[Just Regular]

Perhaps even more so than Mayo or Basallo's excellent years, Bradish's breakout was the most exciting individual player development story of 2023.    But pedigree defined as the amount of $$$$ a MLB Club gives you to affiliate (and I know no better single indicator) suggests Grayson's talent is 10x as enticing.    I believe today Kyle Bradish is durably better than DL Hall, but some of that is due to a lot of evidence Hall isn't panning out as hoped (though still not bad!).

I hope this isn't the last time we see Bradish as a Cy Young finalist, but I'm old school enough to worry about the longevity of a pitcher whose breaking ball is their best pitch.    Five years feels sufficient.

In Grayson's case, the hope that he's fundamentally similar to Josh Beckett or Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole among all the homo sapiens is still there, so I'd plus up the Strider benchmarks a little bit and lean on him some this winter.     The change-up as a featured secondary feels safer.    Elite high school Arms, there's the level where you just hope none of the talent goes to the surgeon for 15+ years, and so far so good there.

I am glad Elias and Felix struck an accord, but let's not go crazy about Club magnanimity.    Felix on the same timeline as Adley sold his Arb1 2025 for a flat $1 million.   Even out all of 2024, I believe he would have drawn enough of a 2025 Arb salary based on his first 2 strong seasons his earnings for 2024-2025 may have been more even if he didn't take the security.     Elias' opportunity not to pay Felix a million or more for 2025 would have been to non-tender him, but even if he has some John Means kind of setback during his rehab, I don't think that would have been a very sensible option.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Just Regular

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

It's called the John Lackey clause. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rise-of-the-john-lackey-clause/

I meant do the contracts for the young, healthy at the time of the contact, pitchers mentioned by Frobby have contracts like that?

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I didn’t.  I was making a comment.

I think fair to both sides is 100% subjective and does not exist.  
 

In a situation where someone is paying for goods/services, the only thing right is for the payer to pay the payee for services rendered.  If services aren’t rendered payment should not be made.  
 

If a player can’t perform due to injury, they should have their own insurance policy that covers their inability to perform.  The employer should not be penalized.  

 

Was your contractor forced to work for you for like six years for below market rates before you signed that pool contract? That’s what happens in baseball. The situations are totally different. Only a fraction of players make it to the point where they are competitive for a nice, multi-year deal. 

[tntoriole]

Am i mistaken but was Adam Jones the only  young star extension that has been done? 
 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-adam-jones-agrees-to-sixyear-855-million-extension-with-orioles-20120526-story.html

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Am i mistaken but was Adam Jones the only  young star extension that has been done? 
 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-adam-jones-agrees-to-sixyear-855-million-extension-with-orioles-20120526-story.html

How many young stars have there been?

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Am i mistaken but was Adam Jones the only  young star extension that has been done? 
 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-adam-jones-agrees-to-sixyear-855-million-extension-with-orioles-20120526-story.html

Markakis.

[tntoriole]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How many young stars have there been?

Matt Wieters, Mike Mussina are two I remember lots of talk about early extensions 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Matt Wieters, Mike Mussina are two I remember lots of talk about early extensions 

Didn't Mussina extend once?

[tntoriole]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Markakis.

Exactly right!!! Thanks so much! 
 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3844701

[Just Regular]

15 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Was your contractor forced to work for you for like six years for below market rates before you signed that pool contract? That’s what happens in baseball. The situations are totally different. Only a fraction of players make it to the point where they are competitive for a nice, multi-year deal. 

Also 6.x years for almost any pitcher.     Occasionally the Bats get an Andrew Vaughn.

The intensity of pitching this decade, its settled the load of ~32 starts at ~90 pitches each is more than a young Arm can bear with top efficiency, if they are even good enough to rate that deployment against MLB Bats all season.

Today's Cot's Major League Service as of 1/24 listings are 2.132 for Tyler Wells, 1.160 for Kyle Bradish and 0.129 for Grayson Rodriguez.    In April 2022 Kyle Bradish threw 27 innings of 1.30 ERA in the high minors.     He was perhaps the centerpiece ask of the Dylan Bundy trade acquisition, completed full slates of starts in 2019 and 2021 (the '18 Angels chose not to pitch him, and '20 we all know), and may soon be a finalist for the 2023 Cy Young Award.      Today he is ~27.1 years old, and his first FA year looks like his Age-32 season.

I think the Sigbot had an inkling he is good!     The April 2022 Orioles gave a couple starts to Chris Ellis who pitched to a 10.00+ ERA in a year they narrowly missed the playoffs.     Also a full slate of starts to Spenser Watkins and Bruce Zimmermann, who had good months.

Anybody want to guess how many days of service Chayce McDermott will earn in 2024, or Seth Johnson in 2025, or Jackson Baumeister in 2026?

Its all rational asset management and collectively bargained so understandable a Club maximizes, but there's also a bond between a bunch of championship caliber players and a ballclub that can be balance-positive to develop, and so far zero have chosen to invest beyond the minimum with the organization.      Hopefully that will change soon.

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't Mussina extend once?

You are a superstar, sir!! Thanks, my memory is not so hot anymore lol 

His was right on the brink of free agency ..the game has changed since then in timing and acceptance of offers 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1997/05/04/mussina-orioles-agree-on-extension/0319bf86-653a-4098-8428-19ca2b994267/

Edited October 21, 2023 by tntoriole

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

So Bautista is pitching great.  One pitch and he is out of a year and there is no way to know if he will be as good again.   5 year or longer extensions for  pitchers sounds risky. 

 

I agree it is risky.  The question is, how much of a discount off market prices do you need in order to make the risk worthwhile?

I spent a little time this morning looking at what various pitchers got/are getting in arbitration and beyond.  Here are some higher-priced guys who were Super Twos:

Trevor Bauer, $40.6 mm during 4 Arb seadons, then would have gotten $68 mm his first two FA seasons if not for his legal entanglements.   6 year total: $108 mm.

Max Fried, $23.85 mm first 3 Arb seadons, projected to get $15 mm in Arb 4.  Will probably get $23-25 mm/yr as a FA.   Call it $87 mm over 6 years.

Brandon Woodruff, $21.5 mm first 3 Arb years, projected for $12.5 mm in Arb 4, probably gets $17.5 mm in his FA years.  $69 mm over 6 years.  

Framber Valdez, $9.8 mm his first two Arb years, projected for $12.5 mm this year, probably gets $15.5 mm next year, then $20 mm in his two FA years.  Total about $88 mm for 6 years.  

Kevin Gausman, earned $27.4 mm in his 4 Arb years (which included a one-year FA deal after he was non-tendered), then got $39.9 mm the first two FA years (including a QO he accepted).  Total $67 mm.

Eduardo Rodriguez, $23.3 mm his 4 Arb years, $28 mm his first two FA years.  Total $51.3 mm.

So, if these guys stay healthy and do well, a range of $51 - $108 mm over 6 years is possible.  Probably $78 mm is a fair guess.  So how much of a discount do you need to account for risk of (1) injury, or (2) poor performance?
 

[George Zuverink]

They would look like miracles given our ownership. 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I looked everywhere I know to find out who represents Bradish. Does anyone know who his agent is?

Maybe he represents himself. This makes sense with slotting etc. the little extra money a 4th rounder might get is lost to the agent in fees anyway. You really don’t need an agent until arbitration or free agency.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Maybe he represents himself. This makes sense with slotting etc. the little extra money a 4th rounder might get is lost to the agent in fees anyway. You really don’t need an agent until arbitration or free agency.

Yep.

I read somewhere, years ago, that at this point in their careers players would be better off just hiring a good lawyer and paying them hourly to go over the contracts.