Santander Speculation

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I'd add in McKenna to that list, yes?

No, he doesn’t really count in this equation. 

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

who are “WE”?

MONEY!!!! They won’t want to pay him. They won’t want to lose him and get nothing at the end of 2024 in free agency.

Their plan is to play it cheap. It’s fine to hate the approach but that what they’ve basically said. You hope they try to do extensions with Gunnar and Bradish while dealing off guys like Santander to keep the prospect funnel overflowing.You can keep telling yourself we can handle it but they don’t want to.

We would get a draft pick back to help replenish the pipeline. Elias has shown himself OK with short term contracts. Worst case scenario they are gone after the next year and no long term obligation. I just think it's going to be difficult to find a contender who sees Santander as a missing piece but is willing to give up a plus pitcher. Might make sense for us but not for 99% of likely partners.

[Sports Guy]

The whole concept of we are definitely getting a draft pick for Santander needs to go away. That is far from a certainty.

[wse120372]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole concept of we are definitely getting a draft pick for Santander needs to go away. That is far from a certainty.

I couldn't agree more. I appreciate Santander as much as anyone here but I can't see Elias giving a qualifying offer to a 2.5 WAR player who plays a non-premium defensive position. I believe Tony would pull a Joc Pederson and sign the qualifying offer the day it was official.  

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, wse120372 said:

I couldn't agree more. I appreciate Santander as much as anyone here but I can't see Elias giving a qualifying offer to a 2.5 WAR player who plays a non-premium defensive position. I believe Tony would pull a Joc Pederson and sign the qualifying offer the day it was official.  

Can definitely see that.

It also wouldn’t be shocking if he has a season that wasn’t quite worthy of even getting a QO.

Its a lot of money to pay for a guy who, while not quite 1 dimensional, isn’t exactly a dual threat either.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

We would get a draft pick back to help replenish the pipeline. Elias has shown himself OK with short term contracts. Worst case scenario they are gone after the next year and no long term obligation. I just think it's going to be difficult to find a contender who sees Santander as a missing piece but is willing to give up a plus pitcher. Might make sense for us but not for 99% of likely partners.

The model is to trade assets you are not going to retain as opposed to hoping for a draft pick. In the old days when you'd get a teams top pick that was more of a carrot to watch guys depart. Now its more of a gamble. Until Peter departs and a decision is gone we need to come to terms with the fact that the Angelos family will want to keep the payroll low and I'm hoping that means a couple early extensions to hang onto the core guys. As of now I view them as Bradish, Grayson, and Henderson. I don't wont to see them do the same with Adley because im afraid of the drop off due to age & wear and tear.

As far as your concern about Santander's trade value I'm not advocating that we give him away. A large market team will pay him handsomely to be their 7-10 best player as they can spend up to $234,000,000.

 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The model is to trade assets you are not going to retain as opposed to hoping for a draft pick. In the old days when you'd get a teams top pick that was more of a carrot to watch guys depart. Now its more of a gamble. Until Peter departs and a decision is gone we need to come to terms with the fact that the Angelos family will want to keep the payroll low and I'm hoping that means a couple early extensions to hang onto the core guys. As of now I view them as Bradish, Grayson, and Henderson. I don't wont to see them do the same with Adley because im afraid of the drop off due to age & wear and tear.

As far as your concern about Santander's trade value I'm not advocating that we give him away. A large market team will pay him handsomely to be their 7-10 best player as they can spend up to $234,000,000.

 

Right, but a large market contending team is not going to trade MLB level veteran bullpen arms. If we trade Santander, my expectation would be prospects to restock the pipeline. I'm not opposed to Santander/Hays for prospects, but I would expect to lose some production from the MLB team, not an immediate solution to our bullpen holes. 

We have seen Angelos/Elias make modest short term commitments to plug holes (Frazier, Gibson, Lyles), even to the point of fairly obvious overpay. Santander's arb salary will be pushing a notch higher but we should be flush coming off a playoff season. What will Santander get, $15M? For a year of Santander plus a comp round pick that is a very reasonable cost. We can well afford that coming off a playoff season and 500k+ attendance increase.

 

[TommyPickles]

I'd like to keep Santander for this last year and experiment with him playing more 1B. He's been a considerably better hitter than Mountcastle for two years in a row. That would also open up playtime in the outfield.

Watching the postseason this year it seems clear that we need power hitters in the lineup.

Edited October 31, 2023 by TommyPickles

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I'd like to keep Santander for this last year and experiment with him playing more 1B. He's been a considerably better hitter than Mountcastle for two years in a row. That would also open up playtime in the outfield.

Watching the postseason this year it seems clear that we need power hitters in the lineup.

If you are playing Santander at first more than you need to move on from Mountcastle and probably OHearn too, at least if you want to get the young kids up here.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Right, but a large market contending team is not going to trade MLB level veteran bullpen arms. If we trade Santander, my expectation would be prospects to restock the pipeline. I'm not opposed to Santander/Hays for prospects, but I would expect to lose some production from the MLB team, not an immediate solution to our bullpen holes. 

We have seen Angelos/Elias make modest short term commitments to plug holes (Frazier, Gibson, Lyles), even to the point of fairly obvious overpay. Santander's arb salary will be pushing a notch higher but we should be flush coming off a playoff season. What will Santander get, $15M? For a year of Santander plus a comp round pick that is a very reasonable cost. We can well afford that coming off a playoff season and 500k+ attendance increase.

 

I never stated a anything about bullpen arms....I said prospects that keep the funnel overflowing. Elis has shown he can get relievers from other places. I trust him to add to the pen without needing to deal from our MLB roster. Perhaps he can spend some of Gibson's money on a free agent closer since the rotation barring a trade is pretty well set IMO.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I never stated a anything about bullpen arms....I said prospects that keep the funnel overflowing. Elis has shown he can get relievers from other places. I trust him to add to the pen without needing to deal from our MLB roster. Perhaps he can spend some of Gibson's money on a free agent closer since the rotation barring a trade is pretty well set IMO.

Sorry, I had originally responded to Frobby's post (in response to Sports Guy) where the hypothetical was Santander for a bullpen arm. It was also in the context of whether Santander is "replaceable" and whether trading him would involve a hit to the MLB team. I think it would because in a Santander trade we are likely getting prospects back (and likely not very good ones). 

[sportsfan8703]

Being a SH matters a lot. If we replace Santander with a lefty, then that hurts Gunnar and Holliday. Two LH top of lineup hitters. If we replace him with a RH batter then there is that wall.

Also, 2024 is more valuable than just a regular season for us. So that’s added value in keeping him.

It’s a rare situation where just letting him play out his deal and walk, makes sense. 

[LookinUp]

I highly doubt we get ML players that are as valuable as Santander in a trade, so to me it's go for multiple young (e.g., Low A) arms or just not trade him this year.

If I'd wager, it would be that Santander isn't traded. They only reason I hesitate on that opinion is I also really don't think they want to trade Hays. I think they value his defense and, frankly, the young guys in AAA have big questions and would likely be a pretty sizable step back in LF at Camden Yards, IMO. If Beavers was ready, I might feel different, but I don't think they want to pencil Cowser into the lineup.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Being a SH matters a lot. If we replace Santander with a lefty, then that hurts Gunnar and Holliday. Two LH top of lineup hitters. If we replace him with a RH batter then there is that wall.

Also, 2024 is more valuable than just a regular season for us. So that’s added value in keeping him.

It’s a rare situation where just letting him play out his deal and walk, makes sense. 

It doesn’t matter a lot if he’s not successful from both sides of the plate.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It doesn’t matter a lot if he’s not successful from both sides of the plate.

You keep saying that.  Yet RZNJ already provided the stats that show that is completely false.  Santander shows no significant splits as a SH.