Outfield Surplus?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wow. No use to talk to you about it if you just ignore everything I said about improvement.   I think we're done discussing this.  There is not point.

You are acting like this is a 100 win team that can stand pat.

That isn't likely to be the case.

Yes Grod might take a step forward, he might also blow his UCL.

You should always be looking to add talent and move forward.

You don't just add a back of the rotation starter and a bullpen arm and go Done!

[24fps]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

This team does not need to add  much for improve.

A full year of an ACE in GRod

A full year of John Means.

Westburg/Holliday instead of Frazier

Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo instead of Urias

More depth in the outfield/DH with Cowser/Kjerstad.

Then add a 4th starter and a reliever through FA or trade.  They spent over 20m last year on Gibson, Frazier and Givens.  They can do that again and still be near the bottom in payroll.

Elias/Sig/Holt know how to add players they can improve the tea, on the cheap like they did with O'Hearn, Hicks, Cano, Coulombe, etc,

Trade Norby, Stowers and Urias for pitching depth.

Elias is already adding depth at AAA like he did last off season.  He brought 4 cheap 1B to camp and ended up in O'Hearn.  I would not be surprised to see 4 cheap CF in camp next spring to back up Mullins.

This offseason, a meaningful number of other AL teams will be more aggressive than "this team does not need to add much {to} improve."  IMO you've sketched a solid starting point for approaching 2024.

[now]

5 hours ago, oriole said:

Elias has yet to swing a trade or sign a free agent that moves the needle. Everything that has made this team a contender has been through left overs from Duquette, good drafting/developing, and solid use of the waiver wire. Until Elias shows me that he can make a major move, I can’t reasonably expect to see it done.

I agree with everything you said btw. I think payroll should be increased and that prospects that don’t have a path to playing time should be utilized in trade. It’s just not what I expect to actually be done.

Just want to take issue with the limitation of your trade scope, as in moving the needle immediately. Trading one of our top bats and closer (Mancini and Lopez) in 2022 brought back young talent (Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, and others) that will move the needle later; and Cano was a major factor in 2023 success.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, now said:

Just want to take issue with the limitation of your trade scope, as in moving the needle immediately. Trading one of our top bats and closer (Mancini and Lopez) in 2022 brought back young talent (Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, and others) that will move the needle later; and Cano was a major factor in 2023 success.

I think Elias  trades  Stowers, Norby and Urias for  pitching.

[btdart20]

12 hours ago, 24fps said:

101 wins means the rebuild is over and the competitive window is open, so the job now is improving the team for 2024. 

“What’s this competitive window you speak of?  My goal is perennial contender “ - Mike Elias

It’s only partially tongue-in-cheek because I think the end game is different than what we might think of with the traditional ‘window’ label.

[Roll Tide]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's the current 2024 outfield depth as I see it:

LF: Hays, Cowser, Hicks (If resigned), Hilliard, McKenna, Norby (Not on 40-man but is ready offensively), Vavra
CF: Mullins, Hicks, Cowser, Hilliard, McKenna
RF: Santander, Kjerstad, Hicks, Cowser, Stowers, Hilliard

Hicks is a prototypical 4th outfielder though he may want to play somewhere where he has a chance to start. If healthy, I don't see where he gets those PAs with the Orioles, especially since Kjerstad is ready and Cowser probably is too.

Is that a surplus? 

Right now, the Orioles have a surplus of major league ready position players and need to package some for some impact relief and maybe MOO or SP help.
 

So you believe Santander is dealt …. Otherwise he’s in RF most days IMO

[Roll Tide]

23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

“What’s this competitive window you speak of?  My goal is perennial contender “ - Mike Elias

It’s only partially tongue-in-cheek because I think the end game is different than what we might think of with the traditional ‘window’ label.

Which is why you have to trade the guys that are 1-2 years from free agency. That keeps the pipeline full indefinitely as long as you know how to pick the prospects you are receiving in the deals. 

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So you believe Santander is dealt …. Otherwise he’s in RF most days IMO

I don't know whether he will be dealt or not, but with him getting expensive (For Angelos) and with Kjerstad ready to take over, if they can move him in a package for either a solid mid-rotation young controllable starter or an impact reliever they will probably consider it for sure.

 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

“What’s this competitive window you speak of?  My goal is perennial contender “ - Mike Elias

It’s only partially tongue-in-cheek because I think the end game is different than what we might think of with the traditional ‘window’ label.

The way I phrased it is just another way to emphasize that fans need to adjust their expectations about how the team will be run now that it is demonstrably competitive.  I completely agree with Elias’ goal and that “competitive windows” is a stupid management concept. 

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are acting like this is a 100 win team that can stand pat.

That isn't likely to be the case.

Yes Grod might take a step forward, he might also blow his UCL.

You should always be looking to add talent and move forward.

You don't just add a back of the rotation starter and a bullpen arm and go Done!

Everything is sunshine and rainbows!!

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Which is why you have to trade the guys that are 1-2 years from free agency. That keeps the pipeline full indefinitely as long as you know how to pick the prospects you are receiving in the deals. 

I am betting that Elias trades for some prospects this off season.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Everything is sunshine and rainbows!!

I prefer sunshine and puppy dogs.   Rainbows fade too fast.

[bpilktree67]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Remember, it’s not Santander/Hays vs. Cowser/Kjerstad.   You also factor in what we could get for Santander/Hays 

This is a major point some people are over looking.  That is why i move Santander for a back end type bullpen guy because I think Kjerstad/Cowser plus a backend pitcher is more valuable then just Santander.  

[RarityFlaherty]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I prefer sunshine and puppy dogs.   Rainbows fade too fast.

Dogs don’t live long enough either. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

14 hours ago, forphase1 said:

But proven what?  That they are decent, but not great,  MLB players?  One good thing with our OF vets is we pretty much know what we've got.   And one bad thing is we pretty much know what we've got.   I like all three,  but none of them are so good that we shouldn't try to improve or be afraid of replacing them.   I know there is no guarantee that the rookies could out perform the vets, but it's also true that none of them are so good that it would be impossible either, other than Mullins on defense,  as we don't have a good replacement for him there.   

Hays is a career .750 OPS hitter.  That's a bit better than the league average of .734, but it's not great either.   Plus he disappeared in the second half to a .667 OPS. 

Santander is a career .776 OPS hitter, has only been over .800 once,  but was close to that this year,  .797.  That's harder to replace than Hays bat,  though Hays brings more with a better defense.   

I'm not going to dive into Mullins as I don't see moving on from him as we have no other real CF option as of now. 

Point is simply I think we over rate Santander and Hays around here at times.   Both are solid,  decent MLB players,  but neither are great or elite.  We shouldn't give either away,  but nor is either so valuable that replacing them with Cowser/Kjerstad shouldn't be considered.

Not to mention that this is Santander's last season. Didn't we learn from the Schoop/Machado trade fiasco's? To stay competitive in middle/small markets you have to trade good players when they are nearing free agency. Its a fact. Holding onto Santander, with 2 guys ready to take his place, is a mistake. If it was only 1 TOP prospect waiting, I MIGHT be more hesitant, but it's 2. We have holes, he can help us fill them.