Melewski suggests Sonny Gray

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, accinfo said:

She isn’t Taylor Swift.  She could buy some free agents.

I believe her music career is modest to say the least. If she were single she’d probably share a dwelling with other musicians and spend late nights at the Nashville Honkey Tonks. 

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Not until next year according to BBREF. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glasnty01.shtml

Not a FA but he will be traded.  It's a 2 year $30m contract but escalates from $5 to $25m in 2024, I don't think the Rays even with the injuries to their rotation will pay that.

[Hank Scorpio]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

That makes me feel super old.  I remember in Gray’s rookie year @Roy Firestoneposted a thread saying what a promising young pitcher Gray was and how the Orioles should be worried about facing him.  Then he came into town and we lit him up!   Feels like that was just a few years ago, but it was back in 2013 already.  

We lit him up this year too

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

We lit him up this year too

In his defense, he basically shut them down a week later. (The O's still won that one as well.)

[Can_of_corn]

Was tendered a QO.

 

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was tendered a QO.

 

Interesting non offers to Soler and Teoscar Hernández.

[Roll Tide]

Honestly Gray would be my choice. In this Article Elias claimed to be in the monetary wheelhouse that Gray is likely looking. If we could get him in the 3 year 66-75 million I say get it done.

 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/is-this-free-agent-pitcher-a-good-fit-for-the-orioles

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly Gray would be my choice. In this Article Elias claimed to be in the monetary wheelhouse that Gray is likely looking. If we could get him in the 3 year 66-75 million I say get it done.

 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/is-this-free-agent-pitcher-a-good-fit-for-the-orioles

The question for me is health. If you look at the last time he threw over 175 IP (2019 with the Reds) his next three years were 56 (COVID), 135 and 119. He's a fantastic pitcher when he is healthy. He will be 34 all of next year so you are paying for the age 34-35 and 36 seasons for a pitcher who has not gone 200 IP since his age 25 season back in 2015. He averaged 5.2 IP per start in 2023. He went 7.0 IP 6 times in 2023 never longer than 7.0.

I also think the fact that the Twins will get a draft pick for him due to the QO is a factor. 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[interloper]

2/$24 is the limit I've been estimating. It's an incremental step forward from Gibson's contact which was an incremental step forward from Lyles' contract.

If they go above that, great. But that's my expectation and I'm not wavering from it no matter how many dumb speculation articles are written about the Orioles off season. 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

2/$24 is the limit I've been estimating. It's an incremental step forward from Gibson's contact which was an incremental step forward from Lyles' contract.

If they go above that, great. But that's my expectation and I'm not wavering from it no matter how many dumb speculation articles are written about the Orioles off season. 

This wasn’t a dumb speculation article. It’s a Mewleski MASN article with direct quotes from Elias, who has been pretty forthright with what he’s had to say for the most part. 

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This wasn’t a dumb speculation article. It’s a Mewleski MASN article with direct quotes from Elias, who has been pretty forthright with what he’s had to say for the most part. 

“Lift off” 

[e16bball]

I don’t know the intricacies of the Orioles’ model, but I would find it hard to believe there’s any model out there that would consider it wise to pay a 5’10 SP big money for his age 34-36 seasons. 

Even if we’re only talking 9ish WAR to earn a $70M contract, it seems like a bad idea. In the last 50+ years, there have been precisely zero pitchers 5’10 or shorter that have been worth more than 7 rWAR between ages 34-36.

Fred Norman is the leader in that group among guys who were primarily SPs, with 6.7 rWAR between 1977-79. The next closest behind him? Paolo Espino, with 1.1 rWAR between 2021-23, and Dennis Springer, with 0.1 rWAR between 1999-2001. 

Gray seems like a great competitor. He’ll have to be something special, because Whitey Ford is the only old/short SP since the Orioles moved to Baltimore that would have earned the deal Gray is going to get.

Edited November 26, 2023 by e16bball

[dystopia]

4 hours ago, e16bball said:

I don’t know the intricacies of the Orioles’ model, but I would find it hard to believe there’s any model out there that would consider it wise to pay a 5’10 SP big money for his age 34-36 seasons. 

Even if we’re only talking 9ish WAR to earn a $70M contract, it seems like a bad idea. In the last 50+ years, there have been precisely zero pitchers 5’10 or shorter that have been worth more than 7 rWAR between ages 34-36.

Fred Norman is the leader in that group among guys who were primarily SPs, with 6.7 rWAR between 1977-79. The next closest behind him? Paolo Espino, with 1.1 rWAR between 2021-23, and Dennis Springer, with 0.1 rWAR between 1999-2001. 

Gray seems like a great competitor. He’ll have to be something special, because Whitey Ford is the only old/short SP since the Orioles moved to Baltimore that would have earned the deal Gray is going to get.

The market is what it is. Players just get absurd amounts of money these days, especially pitchers. 

[CompuCoach]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

“Lift off” 

Ascending to 101 wins was "lifting off," was it not? I don't see the statement as being disingenuous. It never meant what some people thought it did. 

[emmett16]

42 minutes ago, CompuCoach said:

Ascending to 101 wins was "lifting off," was it not? I don't see the statement as being disingenuous. It never meant what some people thought it did. 

It was a joke.  My point is you can’t take these guys are their word no matter what they say.  It’s all lip service.  And who can blame them, they have a mic shoved in their faces on a daily basis.  Actions speak louder than words.