Cease vs everyone else

[Safelykept]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

Fortunately you’re not a MLB GM!

And You Are? come on were just spitballing here not make it Personal

[Too Tall]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

Fortunately you’re not a MLB GM!

Last time I checked no one on this site was! 

[ChosenOne21]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Fortunately you’re not a MLB GM!

Is it really so hard to believe that someone could prefer Grod's 2024 over Cease's? I think Grod is more likely to have a better ERA than Cease, although I think it's likely Cease throws more innings

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Is it really so hard to believe that someone could prefer Grod's 2024 over Cease's? I think Grod is more likely to have a better ERA than Cease, although I think it's likely Cease throws more innings

He very well might, but you can't say he's a better pitcher at this very moment. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Last time I checked no one on this site was! 

Thank goodness (myself included!). 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Is it really so hard to believe that someone could prefer Grod's 2024 over Cease's? I think Grod is more likely to have a better ERA than Cease, although I think it's likely Cease throws more innings

I would not put money on which one will throw more innings.   Cease had 177 IP last year in 33 starts.   GRod had 163 in IP in 31 starts.   Give them the same number of starts and its a toss up.

Edited January 7 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Listening to Dipoto on MlB radio..it seems they are done with adding or trading pitching.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, that's an opinion.   I would say there is a 90% chance that Bradish and GRod are better based on what they did in the 2nd half on 2023.  

I like to look at ZiPS’ 80th percentile and 20th percentile projections because they illustrate how volatile pitchers are.  For Bradish, ZiPS says there’s a 20% chance that he’ll have an ERA of 3.16 or better, but also a 20% chance of being at 4.29 or worse.  For GRod, a 20% chance of 3.40 or better, 20% chance of 4.69 or worse.  ZiPS hasn’t been released for the White Sox yet, but based on those percentages, I’d say the odds that both are better than Cease couldn’t be more than 50% almost no matter what ZiPS says about him.  

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I think he ends up too big to stick at catcher …he’s already 6’3” abd 180 lbs and hasn’t filled out yet. I think Kjerstad has the higher floor and could be great here. I’m not saying we should it’s just my preference. It will take a few years to figure out who’s right

Have you ever seen Basallo?  Anyone who thinks he’s anywhere close to 180 is in for a big surprise.  He’s pretty filled.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like to look at ZiPS’ 80th percentile and 20th percentile projections because they illustrate how volatile pitchers are.  For Bradish, ZiPS says there’s a 20% chance that he’ll have an ERA of 3.16 or better, but also a 20% chance of being at 4.29 or worse.  For GRod, a 20% chance of 3.40 or better, 20% chance of 4.69 or worse.  ZiPS hasn’t been released for the White Sox yet, but based on those percentages, I’d say the odds that both are better than Cease couldn’t be more than 50% almost no matter what ZiPS says about him.  

2nd half ERAs

Bradish  2.34

GRod.  2.58

These are young improving starters.   I wouldn't limit them by anything ZIPPY says.   They are #1s in the making.   And 2024 is a good year for them to grow.

Edited January 7 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

He very well might, but you can't say he's a better pitcher at this very moment. 

But you said this: “but I doubt that there is a single MLB team that would take Rodriguez over Cease just for the 2024 season”.

I think there are teams that would take GRod over Cease for just this year.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

2nd half ERAs

Bradish  2.34

GRod.  2.58

These are young improving starters.   I wouldn't limit them by anything ZIPPY says.   They are #1s in the making.   And 2024 is a good year for them to growth.

I am very optimistic about both.  But you are more optimistic than me by a long shot.  Sure they both could be as good or better than the second half of last year.  But it’s not that likely, and we don’t need them to be.  

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

2nd half ERAs

Bradish  2.34

GRod.  2.58

These are young improving starters.   I wouldn't limit them by anything ZIPPY says.   They are #1s in the making.   And 2024 is a good year for them to grow.

...and if you actually look under the hood Rodriguez had an xERA of 3.93 and his high strikeout rate in the minors didn't translate to the majors, which is a bit concerning. I like Rodriguez as much as next guy, but to say that a player who only has three good MLB months under his belt (so far) is better RIGHT NOW than a youngish veteran who has a 2nd place Cy Young finish to his credit seems like a real stretch to me. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But you said this: “but I doubt that there is a single MLB team that would take Rodriguez over Cease just for the 2024 season”.

I think there are teams that would take GRod over Cease for just this year.

 I said exactly what I meant to say. There's no GM in baseball who's taking (just for the 2024 season) a a young pitcher with three months of MLB success over a pitcher who's had four successfully seasons, including one in which he finished as the runner up for the Cy Young, and who's already demonstrated the ability to be a workhorse.

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...and if you actually look under the hood Rodriguez had an xERA of 3.93 and his high strikeout rate in the minors didn't translate to the majors, which is a bit concerning. I like Rodriguez as much as next guy, but to say that a player who only has three good MLB months under his belt (so far) is better RIGHT NOW than a youngish veteran who has a 2nd place Cy Young finish to his credit seems like a real stretch to me. 

His FIP was 3.93, not his xERA, which was 4.18, both lower than his actual ERA. If you‘re insisting on using these stats to prove a point, make sure your point supports your argument.