Cease vs everyone else

[ChicagoTerp]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/07/mlb-rumors-10-predictions-2024-spring-training/72133963007/
 

Nightengale predicts that Cease will stay put because no one is willing to pay the asking price of 2 top 100 guys and 2 other guys.

 

Getz: Am I out of touch?

...

Getz: No. It is every other team that is wrong.

[Sports Guy]

Meanwhile, the the WS board thinks they are getting 3-4 top guys from the Yankees because “they are desperate”.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, ChicagoTerp said:

Getz: Am I out of touch?

...

Getz: No. It is every other team that is wrong.

Getz is probably hoping someone will allow themselves to get fleeced. If nobody bites he'll just wait for the trade deadline.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, ChicagoTerp said:

Getz: Am I out of touch?

...

Getz: No. It is every other team that is wrong.

 Nothing wrong with asking for a lot but when everyone is telling you that the offer is too much maybe you are misreading the market.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Meanwhile, the the WS board thinks they are getting 3-4 top guys from the Yankees because “they are desperate”.

Thanks for posting all this stuff. 

So it seems like Snell’s market is a little more straightforward. Is he considered the first domino out of Montgomery/Snell/Cease to fall?

[Just Regular]

This thread is really going to explode when the Brady Aiken type stuff starts with Cease's physical once a deal is tentatively agreed to.

Basallo does still need to prove he can hit the high minors (I don't count a week against checked out AA pitchers), but its hard to exaggerate how exciting it'll be if he sustains world domination mode over pitchers this spring.

Basallo at 18 put runs on the board basically like only Vlad and Tatis have the last decade.    The initial release of 2024 PECOTAs think he's the best Age 19 bat opening this season by its overall hitting metric of choice.     The Age 20-26 holders of those honors are Jackson Holliday, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Francisco Alvarez, Corbin Carroll (Gunnar 4th place among Age 23's), Bobby Witt, Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna.

If Basallo is in the ballpark of that special, it'll be apparent in 2024.    Total eclipse of Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad apparent, though it will be fun to watch the Matt Blood quotes about the limitations of his game and how long he'll need to stay in AAA.

[wildcard]

I keep reading that Cease is a Top of the Rotation pitcher.    But I don't think that is true for the O's.   Bradish and GRod both project to be better.    

So to start with he may be a #3.  His career ERA in 3.83.   That is higher than John Means.  Cease had one great year but two of the last three years  he had a 3.91 and  4.58 ERA.  He may pitch 20-30  innings  more than Means but maybe not a better ERA.

I am not saying he couldn't help the O's.  But to be honest on the O's staff  he is a #3 or maybe a #4 pitcher.      How much is that worth?   Not what they are asking.

[sportsfan8703]

It doesn’t seem like the Yankees want Jordan Montgomery. Been there done that. I guess he’s not a sexy enough signing for them. It seems like Snell will sign and Montgomery could be the one to delay until ST. 

[emmett16]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks for posting all this stuff. 

So it seems like Snell’s market is a little more straightforward. Is he considered the first domino out of Montgomery/Snell/Cease to fall?

Snell seems content to wait until or during ST to sign.  Whoever gets him is gonna be kicking themselves.  

[Moose Milligan]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree it’s possible. I think his value could increase but it’s hell of a risk for 1 of your only 2 trade pieces that will bring you back any value. If he gets hurt or gets worse, they end up getting pennies on a dollar for him.

Yup. And all the geniuses on the White Sox board will be pissed he wasn’t traded. 

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It doesn’t seem like the Yankees want Jordan Montgomery. Been there done that. I guess he’s not a sexy enough signing for them. It seems like Snell will sign and Montgomery could be the one to delay until ST. 

Pretty sure it’s the other way around.  They’d have to pay him a ton for him to consider going back to the club that dropped him because they didn’t want him to pitch in playoffs lol.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I keep reading that Cease is a Top of the Rotation pitcher.   

 

Where?

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I keep reading that Cease is a Top of the Rotation pitcher.    But I don't think that is true for the O's.   Bradish and GRod both project to be better.    

So to start with he may be a #3.  His career ERA in 3.83.   That is higher than John Means.  Cease had one great year but two of the last three years  he had a 3.91 and  4.58 ERA.  He may pitch 20-30  innings  more than Means but maybe not a better ERA.

I am not saying he couldn't help the O's.  But to be honest on the O's staff  he is a #3 or maybe a #4 pitcher.      How much is that worth?   Not what they are asking.

It's been argued to death, but what the hell, one more time.

ERA is a valuable statistic but it's an outcome measurement. If you look at the underlying metrics to Cease, he has far more upside than what his ERA has been in 2023 and 2021. The White Sox and their fans are probably overstating that value a bit, but we shouldn't understate it either. He'd be a legitimate top-3 rotational candidate and make our rotation much more dependable and dangerous in a playoff series. I hope we'd coach him to attack a little bit more and minimize walks to get him deeper into games, but outside of that, he has really good stuff.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Malike said:

They just don't understand if you are trading Kjerstad, Mayo, and McDermott, you're getting a player superior to Cease with more team control.

I’m not sure a guy like that is even available where the Orioles would take his contract 

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I keep reading that Cease is a Top of the Rotation pitcher.    But I don't think that is true for the O's.   Bradish and GRod both project to be better.    

So to start with he may be a #3.  His career ERA in 3.83.   That is higher than John Means.  Cease had one great year but two of the last three years  he had a 3.91 and  4.58 ERA.  He may pitch 20-30  innings  more than Means but maybe not a better ERA.

I am not saying he couldn't help the O's.  But to be honest on the O's staff  he is a #3 or maybe a #4 pitcher.      How much is that worth?   Not what they are asking.

What does that even mean though?  Over a 162 game season we need the best rotation we can put together out there. It matters for playoff time, but that’s if we have the luxury to line our staff up. Game 1 of a playoff series would be who is on normal rest and availability. Heck, if Means has a big year it could be him in OPACY because of the LH SP advantage.