Cease vs everyone else

[interloper]

1 minute ago, ofan239 said:

Yeah  Paxton ain’t a top of the rotation starter … try again 

Newsflash: we are not going to get a top of the rotation starter. We're not paying for Snell or Montgomery and it's increasingly unlikely we're trading for Cease.

[Billy F-Face3]

I think Heyman just reads what a fan posts on the message board and that becomes his latest source for a rumor. 

 

I think the Orioles are increasingly comfortable with just sitting tight, not spending any money, and rolling with the players they already have. They have repeatedly communicated that they are a "draft & develop" team. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think Heyman just reads what a fan posts on the message board and that becomes his latest source for a rumor. 

 

I think the Orioles are increasingly comfortable with just sitting tight, not spending any money, and rolling with the players they already have. They have repeatedly communicated that they are a "draft & develop" team. 

I think you underestimate exactly how many talking points Boras sends his way.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

Newsflash: we are not going to get a top of the rotation starter. We're not paying for Snell or Montgomery and it's increasingly unlikely we're trading for Cease.

He's not even an upgrade over Gibson.  I'm not sure he's an upgrade over 2022 Lyles.

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He's not even an upgrade over Gibson.  I'm not sure he's an upgrade over 2022 Lyles.

Agreed. I'd just as soon roll with nobody. 

I admit to liking Ryu a little if he's healthy and fully back from TJS. But that's a coin flip that could easily go wrong, too. 

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not even an upgrade over Gibson.  I'm not sure he's an upgrade over 2022 Lyles.

His pitch data from last year was better than both of them. Pretty clearly too. But 25 starts in over 3+ years is about as big of a red flag as there is.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

James “Plan B” Paxton

I’d be fine with it if they don’t then decide they can’t afford Cease or somebody better too. He’s much more the mold of what makes sense - all kinds of durability questions, but that and his age will make him cheap and he was a very good pitcher before falling apart physically in 2020. He had solid K and BB rates last year, his old velo, and a 3.82 xERA in 19 starts. There’s some signs that a diminished but still decent version of the SP he used to be could show up next year. We don’t need some durable guy to throw innings just for the sake of it, we need someone who could potentially give us some quality innings. Why not. 

For what it’s worth, Steamer’s projection for Paxton is 2.3 fWAR in 142 IP / 26 starts. The Steamer projection for Cease is 2.7 fWAR in 178 IP / 31 starts. Paxton is actually projected for a better FIP (4.16) than Cease (4.30). 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Paxton/Ryu seems like the O's choices at this point.  Any even lower rated starters the O's might pursue?  

Well, Paxton does have a history with birds...

 

[Spy Fox]

29 minutes ago, interloper said:

Newsflash: we are not going to get a top of the rotation starter. We're not paying for Snell or Montgomery and it's increasingly unlikely we're trading for Cease.

Do you think it's increasingly unlikely because there is less time left in the offseason? Or because of something specific about the negotiations? I feel like we know so little about the actual negotiations that I have no idea how the likelihood has changed since November. 

[interloper]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

Do you think it's increasingly unlikely because there is less time left in the offseason? Or because of something specific about the negotiations? I feel like we know so little about the actual negotiations that I have no idea how the likelihood has changed since November. 

I guess I don't know anything really. But yeah, combination of time left in the offseason, interest in Paxton, Getz saying they haven't received any offers they like, and lack of any real pressure on Elias to make a move right now. 

[OriolesMagic83]

24 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think Heyman just reads what a fan posts on the message board and that becomes his latest source for a rumor. 

 

I think the Orioles are increasingly comfortable with just sitting tight, not spending any money, and rolling with the players they already have. They have repeatedly communicated that they are a "draft & develop" team. 

With a cheap ass owner who is more concerned with stuffing his pockets than winning.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

I guess I don't know anything really. But yeah, combination of time left in the offseason, interest in Paxton, Getz saying they haven't received any offers they like, and lack of any real pressure on Elias to make a move right now. 

@Frobby predicted the trade wouldn’t happen until the last two weeks of January, IIRC.  Patience.  Lots of hot air in media reports.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

With a cheap ass owner who is more concerned with stuffing his pockets than winning.

How many games did your cheap-ass owner's team win last year?

[interloper]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

@Frobby predicted the trade wouldn’t happen until the last two weeks of January, IIRC.  Patience.  Lots of hot air in media reports.

Anything's possible! Who knows. 

[interloper]

Just now, owknows said:

How many games did your cheap-ass owner's team win last year?

They won in spite of his cheapness.