Cease vs everyone else

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

The two threads can be summarized as such (w/ apologies to Dr. Seuss):

Good Cease, Cy Cease, Meh Cease, Bye Cease.

FIP Cease, my Cease, WHIP Cease, why Cease?

This Cease has eight million in pay.

This Cease has a two-year stay.

Say! Cease has a lot of ways to K.

 

Winner!

[btdart20]

19 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

We don't need AA arms we need  Major League Arms What about this year?  you start trading our ML talent To get younger, Then you set yourself up for the birdcage or the trapset, Better known as the perpetual Rebuild

Can we need both?

[Roll Tide]

Plus the White Sox board is in open competition with us for the Cease thread page count. We’ve wasted 2 pages of debate so far here and it’s putting us behind

[Too Tall]

larrytt,

    I for one apologize for continuing my pun parade at the expense of your topic. I am worn out reading about Cease and all thing relevant and non-relevant since early November. If Elias doesn't do something soon, I'm going to have to up my meds. 

[Safelykept]

15 minutes ago, owknows said:

It's certainly debatable, but I don't think that's true.

I think some combination of Irvin, Wells, and Hall are likely better than anything we'd trade for.

As far as starters go, we only lost Gibson. And we won 101 games. Our core of young players is now a year more experienced, and we likely will see a couple AAA players graduate that are arguably better than some of the current MLB position players.

I  wouldn't object to a trade for MLB pitching, but I wouldn't characterize it as necessary.. nor would I consider it the best use of the trade capital we have on hand.

I'd rather let the young arms develop, and refill the back of the conveyor belt with better value.

Sustainability

Those guys are all BP arms. What about the BP? You're still  waiting on Hall To be a starter? Irvin as a starter? that's depth and good backup option, should not be our first.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, larrytt said:

.

So, I will Cease (pun intended) posting questions on this discussion thread. I had a good run a number of years ago when I used to post those “Top Ten” lists and join in many other discussions, and I joined in a few times this past year and was getting excited about the upcoming season, but things have really changed here. But feel free to pile on with those sarcastic responses about all these Cease threads that don’t exist and telling people who are new to the current discussion that they have to wade through 3,500 postings to find their answers.

I think you are taking this a little too hard.  Everyone has appreciated your top 10 lists over the years and your anagrams, etc., as well as your substantive posts.  I even remember the posts about the table tennis clinics in the O’s clubhouse, which were fascinating.  But for those of us who are on the board daily, and have discussed every aspect of a possible Cease trade for more than two months, we’re just a little tired of all Cease topics.  It’s nothing personal.   

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

According to this theory, a 28 yesr old with 50 games in AAA is not wasting away in the minors. Not a good Stat to prove your point.

Next off season, Ortiz and Kjerstad will be 26 and imo, will have lost value as a prospect. 

Ortiz and HK lost value compared to what?  Using what?

Compared their own value opening 2023?  Compared to the field?  Compared to their ceiling talent?  Something else?

Using rankings?  Using performance projections?  Using the 40-man of team depth?  Something else?

Was O’Hearns time in AAA a waste last year?  What about Nevin?  Daz Cameron?  Could the purpose be different then you or I think it is?

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Plus the White Sox board is in open competition with us for the Cease thread page count. We’ve wasted 2 pages of debate so far here and it’s putting us behind

No worries, I'll merge it so we can catch up! We need to get to 300 pages!

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Safelykept said:

Those guys are all BP arms. What about the BP? You're still  waiting on Hall To be a starter? Irvin as a starter? that's depth and good backup option, should not be our first.

The BP is obviously gonna be hurt by the loss of Bautista.

They signed what they hope is a replacement. But it's pretty hard to replace the best closer in the game.

Their strategy will either work or it won't.

If not... they'll try something else.

As for some combination of Irvin, Wells, and Hall... yeah... I think that's good enough for the #5

Probably better than a lot of what is currently being considered.

Would I object to them adding a starting arm? No.

Do I think trade is the only way I'd consider that?  Yes.

Do I think it is necessary? No.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Using Westburg, and keeping Cowser and Kjerstad, to headline a deal for Cease is the absolute best case scenario.

Westburg, Beavers and Povich is great for us. If you have to add in a guy like Wagner, who cares.  Being able to acquire a talent like Cease with his upside and not give up anything that “hurts us” is preferred.

Now that there aren’t good players in that deal but the Os have equal or better talents to them, so it’s just trading out of the depth at the end of the day.

 

I'd be very happy with the trade. As much as I like each one of those guys, they are not keys to future success and Westburg can be replaced by Ortiz/Urias and or Holliday at some point this year.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

The point was that they were tanking by intent in the years leading up to their recent success.

And that they achieved at a surprisingly high level and quickly once an effort to contend was made.

I wouldn't think this even modestly controversial a statement.

Are you new here? 

[Aristotelian]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sorry, @larrytt.  I understand you not wanting to look for discussions of Cease vs. our other starters in the 220+ page Cease thread.   I assure you, there’s ample discussion of it there.   Just do a search for Cease/Kremer, or Cease/Wells, or Cease/Hall, or Cease/Irvn and you’ll find literally dozens of posts on this.  

My view: he’d most likely be at least our third best starter, and there’s at least a decent chance that he’d have a better year than one of Bradish or Rodriguez, or both.  
 

There is also a 20% chance he is worse than Irvin/Wells/Hall do to Cease injury/underperforming or our other options overperforming. Cease is an upgrade based on the body of work but less of a sure thing than someone with a true Ace resume.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 hours ago, owknows said:

They managed to squeeze 15 wins out of Gibson last year

Again, Kyle Gibson was a firmly below average Major League pitcher in 2023 and Pitcher Wins are useless for evaluating talent.

 

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

44 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

We don't need AA arms we need  Major League Arms What about this year?  you start trading our ML talent To get younger, Then you set yourself up for the birdcage or the trapset, Better known as the perpetual Rebuild

So you hold into them. Holliday pushes to get called up and you get nothing for Urias/Mateo because they have no options remaining.

Your right that we need a major league arm though.

[E-D-D-I-E]

14 minutes ago, owknows said:

The BP is obviously gonna be hurt by the loss of Bautista.

They signed what they hope is a replacement. But it's pretty hard to replace the best closer in the game.

Their strategy will either work or it won't.

If not... they'll try something else.

As for some combination of Irvin, Wells, and Hall... yeah... I think that's good enough for the #5

Probably better than a lot of what is currently being considered.

Would I object to them adding a starting arm? No.

Do I think trade is the only way I'd consider that?  Yes.

Do I think it is necessary? No.

I would agree EXCEPT your betting on Means. That's too risky a bet for my grocery money.