Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I can see 3 obvious possibilities: Cincy w/ Marte, Arizona w/ Druw Jones, and Philly w/ Andrew Painter.  I don't know much about Marte, but they could be the O's main competition for Cease as Cincy is stack w/ position prospects too.  Painter could be an interesting move by Philly to go all in as he's a potential ace and coming back from TJ.   That could fit WS timeline better than Philly's.  Druw Jones could be sort of a long shot and rolling dice.  His stock has fallen a lot since his debut w/ all his injuries.  I would think he still has All Star potential.  Would be interesting to get the White Sox fan's take on how these other prospects would appeal to the White Sox.  Most teams w/ top 40 prospects are looking to plug them into the lineup or rotation, not trade them.  A second top 100 prospect would need to be added, which not many teams can provide w/o severe damage to their farm. 

I think you came up with some good possibilities.  Cincy makes a lot of sense.  AZ is probably interested but I can’t see WS interested in Druw as the center piece.  I think they would ask for Lawlar.

[Frobby]

Steve Melewski has a writeup on Cease today:

“Some have speculated such a trade package would likely have to start with two team top 10 prospects with maybe one being a top 50 prospect to get a pitcher of this quality. And they might need another player or two at that.”

That sounds a little lighter than Cowser, Ortiz plus.

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Steve Melewski has a writeup on Cease today:

“Some have speculated such a trade package would likely have to start with two team top 10 prospects with maybe one being a top 50 prospect to get a pitcher of this quality. And they might need another player or two at that.”

That sounds a little lighter than Cowser, Ortiz plus.

 

Right..the speculation is all over the place but what I have heard more than not is basically the WS fans are going to be disappointed with the return because they value him much more.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..the speculation is all over the place but what I have heard more than not is basically the WS fans are going to be disappointed with the return because they value him much more.

Well, all fans overvalue their own players and prospects.  I do think Cease is a very good pitcher though.  

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We just got a 50 FV prospect typically ranked in the 60’s for two months of Lucas Giolito.  The SP market is just as insane, if not more insane than it was a few months ago.  I mean, Lance Lynn just got $10M after his disaster of a season.  Reynaldo Lopez got $30M over three years, partly because the Braves think they might be able leverage him as a SP.  To think two cheap years of Dylan Cease, who possesses some of the best stuff in all of baseball and is only one removed from a AL Cy Young runner-up season will command the same return as Giolito is very crazy to me.  Let me ask you this, what kind of contract would you expect Cease to get in this market if he were a free agent?

I don’t mean this to be disrespectful because this board is filled with many smart posters and everyone has been very welcoming to an outsider, but I don’t think some are grasping how expensive good SP will be this off-season and guys that can potentially provide real impact will be extremely expensive.  You guys may not have faith that getting Cease out of the worst organization in baseball will lead to a return to form, but I can guarantee that modern front offices are chomping at the bit to get their hands on him.  An unnamed Astros source last trade deadline called him their “dream acquisition”.  It’s 100% fine if you guys value your prospects over Cease, but there will be a GM who will prioritizing winning in the majors over winning in AAA.

You keep mentioning Cease’s stuff without mentioning his mid 4 era. His high WHIP rate. Unlike the previous season where he put it all together he clearly didn’t this year or he’d be Uber valuable.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You keep mentioning Cease’s stuff without mentioning his mid 4 era. His high WHIP rate. Unlike the previous season where he put it all together he clearly didn’t this year or he’d be Uber valuable.

You mention his stuff because his stuff is elite and it causes his ceiling to be higher.

But what you have actually done matters too.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Steve Melewski has a writeup on Cease today:

“Some have speculated such a trade package would likely have to start with two team top 10 prospects with maybe one being a top 50 prospect to get a pitcher of this quality. And they might need another player or two at that.”

That sounds a little lighter than Cowser, Ortiz plus.

 

1.  Cowser is top 50 some places and Ortiz is definitely in our top ten.  And he mentions plus.  I think he’s just regurgitating stuff he’s read elsewhere.

[dystopia]

Cease just seems too risky to give up top prospects for. I mean do you really want to part with Ortiz and Cowser for what is likely to be 2 years of what likely will be a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher? This has a high chance of blowing up in our face while there is very little risk from the perspective of the White Sox. 
 

I think Cease will still be in Chicago next year because they overvalue him. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Cease just seems too risky to give up top prospects for. I mean do you really want to part with Ortiz and Cowser for what is likely to be 2 years of what likely will be a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher? This has a high chance of blowing up in our face while there is very little risk from the perspective of the White Sox. 
 

I think Cease will still be in Chicago next year because they overvalue him. 

I don’t want to part with Cowser and Ortiz but a pitcher who can make 32 starts and pitch to a 3.50-4.00 ERA has value.   Aaron Nola has had a 4.50 ERA 2 of the last 3 years and just got 7/172.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We just got a 50 FV prospect typically ranked in the 60’s for two months of Lucas Giolito.  

Did you?  The trade was Giolito and Lopez for two prospects.  Quero I see was ranked 89 by BP, unranked by BA and MLB.com.  Bush was unranked.  Those are pre-2023 rankings, but I guess Quero seems to be moving up?  In any event it wasn’t just Giolito who got traded there.

BTW, I’m curious about your take on Giolito.  I sort of like him as a reclamation project.  
 

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t want to part with Cowser and Ortiz but a pitcher who can make 32 starts and pitch to a 3.50-4.00 ERA has value.   Aaron Nola has had a 4.50 ERA 2 of the last 3 years and just got 7/172.

Of course he has value. The question is how much. Ortiz and Cowser are probably going to be above average players for a long time. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Cease just seems too risky to give up top prospects for. I mean do you really want to part with Ortiz and Cowser for what is likely to be 2 years of what likely will be a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher? This has a high chance of blowing up in our face while there is very little risk from the perspective of the White Sox. 
 

I think Cease will still be in Chicago next year because they overvalue him. 

I think you undervalue a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher.  I agree that’s what he’s likely to be.  Could be better or worse, but that’s the most likely range.  

[interloper]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you undervalue a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher.  I agree that’s what he’s likely to be.  Could be better or worse, but that’s the most likely range.  

3.50-4 is basically Dean Kremer, so I kind of agree with @dystopia. I'd love to have Cease come and be a better version of Dean Kremer, but Chicago can go kick rocks if they're asking for Ortiz and Cowser. 

[RZNJ]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did you?  The trade was Giolito and Lopez for two prospects.  Quero I see was ranked 89 by BP, unranked by BA and MLB.com.  Bush was unranked.  Those are pre-2023 rankings, but I guess Quero seems to be moving up?  In any event it wasn’t just Giolito who got traded there.

BTW, I’m curious about your take on Giolito.  I sort of like him as a reclamation project.  
 

Baseball America had Edgar Quero at #70 in their 2023 in season update.

MLB has him at #81.

Edited November 21, 2023 by RZNJ

[Bemorewins]

40 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Cease just seems too risky to give up top prospects for. I mean do you really want to part with Ortiz and Cowser for what is likely to be 2 years of what likely will be a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher? This has a high chance of blowing up in our face while there is very little risk from the perspective of the White Sox. 
 

I think Cease will still be in Chicago next year because they overvalue him. 

To answer your question - I wouldn't mind parting with Ortiz and Cowser if it meant we could land Cease. Now if there is a better pitcher available by trade that you know of, I'm all ears to that possibility as well.

I just think Cease does more for our 2024 team and maybe 2025 team (barring injury) than holding on to Ortiz and Cowser. IMO - there's no place on our roster to get max value out of either player.

IMO we need to be exploring every avenue in order to improve our team (given the HUGE subtraction of Bautista) if we have serious WS aspirations. While Cease come with risk, unless we can find better talent on the trade market or are willing to pay real impact pitchers (which we have not been up until this point); it's a risk to hold and do little to nothing to improve. We have Adley for 4 more years and Gunnar for 5. Until the org (through actions) shows its willing to pony up, this window is likely what we are looking at to seriously pursue championship(s).