2023 #16 Prospect Jackson Baumeister

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/20/orioles-2023-16-prospect-jackson-baumeister-rhp/

A draft eligible sophomore out of Florida State University nabbed by the Orioles in the 2nd round pick of 2023 draft, Baumeister is all about projection and comes in as the #16 prospect.

Jackson Baumeister
Throws: Right
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20
2023 Level: NCAA (Did not pitch professionally)

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 55/60
Slider: 35/45
Change: 40/50
Curveball: 45/50
Command: 35/45

Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th starter or high leverage reliever
Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter

Draft video

2023 Highlights

What we know:  A draft eligible sophomore who turned 21 a few days before the draft, the Orioles took the 6-foot-4 225 pounder mostly on the great frame, a good carry fastball that has reached 97-98 mph early in outings, and two different breaking balls with promise. With the leverage of going back to be the Friday night starter in 2024, Baumeister was able to command an overslot $1,605,100 bonus in a $1,243,300 second round slot.

Outside of his strike out numbers (12.4 K/9), Baumeister's stats weren't all that impressive at Florida State (5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, and 3.8 BB/9), but the Orioles believe he wasn't taught how to use his stuff well and believe they can maximize his raw stuff. On top of it, he's a fairly recent convert to pitching (converted his senior year of high school) and with only 96.1 college innings under his belt, he's considered a "low-milage" pitcher. Lastly, he lands a bit closed on his front foot often and straightening that out can add some additional velocity as well.

The fastball reportedly has good induced vertical break (IVB) which is a fancy way of saying it has good carry. He sat 92-95 MPH in games and would touch 97-98 at times, but the Orioles did not think he used it enough up in the zone in college and would have been more effective doing so.

He spins two different breaking balls, a traditional curveball and more of a sweepy slider. Both can miss bats, but both are inconsistent offerings that will need work to command more often. He will flash a decent change on occasion but it's another offering that will need some shaping.

Not only does he land a bit closed, but he also has a little bit of a head whack and some effort to the delivery so there are some of think he may be better in relief long term.

What we don’t know: After being used in relief only in his Freshman year, he only has one season of starting under his belt so his ability to command his pitches and maintain his velocity deep into games is still unknown. We know the Orioles will have him use his fastball more up in the zone, but can he command it up there? Can he command his offspeed pitches more consistently and will the change develop in order for him to defend himself against lefties? Can he hold up to 180 innings one day when he's never thrown more than 69 innings?

What we think: Baumeister is projectable prospect with upside, but he definitely has reliever risk to him. The Orioles choose not to start him back up after being off so long after his college season (something they did with most of their drafted pitchers this year with draft being so late). It will be interesting to see if the Orioles start him straight into High-A (Aberdeen) or get his feet wet in Delmarva first. Either way, he's an intriguing arm to follow in 2024.

[Frobby]

Interesting write-up.  I think the O’s will start him off at Delmarva rather than Aberdeen.   

[LookinUp]

Love that we went with this guy in last year's draft. Potentially an electric arm to work with.

My concern is that they'll have to play the long game with him. The goal for 2024, IMO, should be to get him through a full professional season as a pitcher. Yes, you want development with command and stuff in general, but this is a kid who has pitched less than some 8th graders I know. I think they'll have to deliberately build that arm strength. For me, that means I'll be satisfied with 3 IP outings, maybe ranging up to 5, over a full season of minor league ball. I almost don't even care about the level. In fact, I'd probably prefer that they don't promote him quickly even if he is dominant. It's all about not stressing that arm too much, IMO, and that will happen against better competition. 

So I hope they're patient in 2024. Let 2025 be his helium year. Hopefully he's in Baltimore in 2026.

[btdart20]

@Tony-OH Did Baumeister go to the lab after he was drafted?  I'd think/hope so to focus on the mechanical issues and build up some more arm strength.  Any news from there?

Clearly, Elias/crew saw something they like a lot to take Baumeister in the 2nd.  And the fact that you've got him higher than I would gives me hope for him.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

@Tony-OH Did Baumeister go to the lab after he was drafted?  I'd think/hope so to focus on the mechanical issues and build up some more arm strength.  Any news from there?

Clearly, Elias/crew saw something they like a lot to take Baumeister in the 2nd.  And the fact that you've got him higher than I would gives me hope for him.

Not sure about the lab, but I have him here based off some of the video stuff and after reading all the reports on his background, frame and raw stuff. 

[now]

@Tony-OH You talk in a few places there about the Orioles' thinking process with him. Just curious, is that logical speculation or are you privy to some of that discussion?

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, now said:

@Tony-OH You talk in a few places there about the Orioles' thinking process with him. Just curious, is that logical speculation or are you privy to some of that discussion?

More logical informed speculation I guess.  

[sportsfan8703]

Hopefully Holt being in his new role will maximize the development of our new arms in our system.  I could see us going pitcher heavy again with the three first rd draft picks.  Of course, if the draft breaks that way, but we might be at the point where we can only have so many position players, and we've really haven't been able to buy the arms with prospect bats like we hoped.  Other than Hernaiz for Irvin.  

[now]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hopefully Holt being in his new role will maximize the development of our new arms in our system.  I could see us going pitcher heavy again with the three first rd draft picks.  Of course, if the draft breaks that way, but we might be at the point where we can only have so many position players, and we've really haven't been able to buy the arms with prospect bats like we hoped.  Other than Hernaiz for Irvin.  

Guess we'll see what happens (or not) with that before next year's draft!

[nvpacchi]

Hey Tony - thanks for the write-up! You mentioned strong IVB numbers in your report, were you actually able to get any numerical data?  Just looking at some of his videos, given that his release point is so low (very funky in general), if he's putting up great IVB (independent of the release point) the fastball could be lethal.

Could be the O's version of Bryan Woo - low arm slot, high carry fastball, very limited mileage on the arm in college.  Difference being Baumeister commanding 10x more cash out of college cause he pitched in the ACC rather than the Big Sky...

Edited November 20, 2023 by nvpacchi
edit Woo's collegiate conference

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

Hey Tony - thanks for the write-up! You mentioned strong IVB numbers in your report, were you actually able to get any numerical data?  Just looking at some of his videos, given that his release point is so low (very funky in general), if he's putting up great IVB (independent of the release point) the fastball could be lethal.

Could be the O's version of Bryan Woo - low arm slot, high carry fastball, very limited mileage on the arm in college.  Difference being Baumeister commanding 10x more cash out of college cause he pitched in the ACC rather than the Big Sky...

I read it in a report after the draft from someone who apparently had the numbers. I agree though, looking at his arm angle and carry, it definitely looks like the fastball has good IVB.