Chourio to get 8/80..Os should do the same for Holliday

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No way they turn that down.  I wish I had a dollar for every time he uses that phrase.  Lol

He did add “imo.”

[Mooreisbetter27]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is going to be a little too much of a generalization, but I think Latino players are often more amenable to team-friendly early extensions than their American-born counterparts.   Chourio may well be the first guy in his family to not have to scrape out a living, and this sets him up for life and if he chooses he can support a lot of other people with that kind of cash.  Holliday on the other hand comes from a super-wealthy family and earned $7.7 mm before he ever played a game of pro ball.  (Note: Chourio did receive a very healthy $1.8 mm signing bonus, so it’s not like he’s hurting for cash in the short term.)

As to what it would take to sign Holliday, I have no idea.   Boras is his agent, and we know Boras doesn’t like early extensions.  Sure, he’ll do what his client tells him to do, but the client is looking to him for advice as well.   And in Holliday’s case, he can afford to “bet on himself” because he’s rich even in the worst case scenario.   

Now, would I do this deal if I was the Orioles?  Well, it’s doubtful Holliday would earn move than ($5mm/$12mm/$20 mm) in his Arb years even in the scenario where he’s a perennial all star.  Call it $40 mm through the Arb years.   So you’re talking  $60-70 mm for 2-3 years after Arb.  I’d like 3/$70 mm at lot more than 2/$60 mm for the FA years.  But overall, I think it’s too generous and risky.   Really, the only way it pans out is if Holliday is about a Seager-level player.   If he’s, say, Dansby Swanson, it’s a losing proposition, and if he’s Ahmed Rosario it’s a disaster (Rosario has been a 10 WAR player through his Arb years, so not bad at all, just not a guy who makes this kind of money).

 

I tend to agree with all of this.  I was going to post about how I felt like he could bet on himself due to family money and the fact he got such a huge bonus.  I'm not sure he'd accept a deal of 110M at this point.  Also will have Boras in his ear... I'd love to get him at that number, I just am not convinced he'd take it.  

Edited November 30, 2023 by Mooreisbetter27

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is just foolish. 
 

We aren’t talking about replacing talent. We are talking about replacing MVP level elite talent.

For you to think so little of Elias (ie, think he is that arrogant) that he believes he can just get MVP level talents on a whim is absurd.

Quote

As for the plan to transform Baltimore back into a contender, Elias was succinct. The goal is simple: to build an "elite pipeline" starting with the Orioles' Dominican Summer League all the way up to Triple-A. It will not be easy, and it will not be swift. Elias cautioned the packed room of media, club officials and other members of the organization that there are "no shortcuts" to building a sustainably competitive franchise.

The dude said it himself back in 2018, I'm not making it up. https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-introduced-as-orioles-gm-c300896840

I'll now wait for your reply that says that he didn't really say that, that's not what he meant or somehow twist what he said to further your argument about how I "think so little of Elias" that he believes he can just get MVP level talents "on a whim."

Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks he can do it "on a whim."  Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks it's easy.  But Elias' goal since Day 1 has been crystal clear...and that is to have a continuous amount of elite talent flowing through the pipeline.  There are several obvious reasons as to why he'd want to do that, IMO one of them is to replace guys that Angelos doesn't want to pay to extend.  That's a roundabout way to beat the "Angelos is cheap" dead horse that everyone loves to continue to beat on.  Of course Angelos isn't going to pay 8/80 or something similar for Holliday, but at some point Elias is going to have to replace that talent with...well, more cheap, cost controlled young talent.  

If that makes it sound like Elias is arrogant, fine.  He should be, he's damn good at what he does.  But arrogance doesn't mean that he thinks what he does is easy, or that I think what he does is easy.  I can't help it if you confuse arrogance with people thinking their jobs are easy.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[baltfan]

People need to realize that these deals are much more likely to be signed by people who are not financially secure.  No chance Holliday takes this kind of money.  It is completely in his interest to take his chances and play out the string.  Grady Sizemore is the only position player I can remember that strategy going horribly for.  

[ChicagoTerp]

Are there really people who believe Angelos is meeting with Elias and saying "hey, should we be locking up the young guys long term?" And Elias is replying "No thanks boss, I think I can find 5 more Ryan O'Hearns" ??

That is insane.

If he is given the resources to lock up Adley, Gunnar and Holliday, he will do it. If not, he won't. We'll see what happens.

[interloper]

Cool. They won't though. 

Next topic!

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is going to be a little too much of a generalization, but I think Latino players are often more amenable to team-friendly early extensions than their American-born counterparts.   Chourio may well be the first guy in his family to not have to scrape out a living, and this sets him up for life and if he chooses he can support a lot of other people with that kind of cash.  Holliday on the other hand comes from a super-wealthy family and earned $7.7 mm before he ever played a game of pro ball.  (Note: Chourio did receive a very healthy $1.8 mm signing bonus, so it’s not like he’s hurting for cash in the short term.)

As to what it would take to sign Holliday, I have no idea.   Boras is his agent, and we know Boras doesn’t like early extensions.  Sure, he’ll do what his client tells him to do, but the client is looking to him for advice as well.   And in Holliday’s case, he can afford to “bet on himself” because he’s rich even in the worst case scenario.   

Now, would I do this deal if I was the Orioles?  Well, it’s doubtful Holliday would earn move than ($5mm/$12mm/$20 mm) in his Arb years even in the scenario where he’s a perennial all star.  Call it $40 mm through the Arb years.   So you’re talking  $60-70 mm for 2-3 years after Arb.  I’d like 3/$70 mm at lot more than 2/$60 mm for the FA years.  But overall, I think it’s too generous and risky.   Really, the only way it pans out is if Holliday is about a Seager-level player.   If he’s, say, Dansby Swanson, it’s a losing proposition, and if he’s Ahmed Rosario it’s a disaster (Rosario has been a 10 WAR player through his Arb years, so not bad at all, just not a guy who makes this kind of money).

 

No doubt they seem more likely to take these deals..which is why I’m blowing the Chourio deal out of the water in terms of what I would offer Holliday.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt they seem more likely to take these deals..which is why I’m blowing the Chourio deal out of the water in terms of what I would offer Holliday.

Do it for Basallo while you're at it.  

[orioles119]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Do it for Basallo while you're at it.  

By the time Basallo makes it to the big leagues, could it be possible that Rutschman is the everyday 1B?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, orioles119 said:

By the time Basallo makes it to the big leagues, could it be possible that Rutschman is the everyday 1B?

2025?  Maybe.  Or you have a two headed catching 1B/C monster.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The dude said it himself back in 2018, I'm not making it up. https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-introduced-as-orioles-gm-c300896840

I'll now wait for your reply that says that he didn't really say that, that's not what he meant or somehow twist what he said to further your argument about how I "think so little of Elias" that he believes he can just get MVP level talents "on a whim."

Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks he can do it "on a whim."  Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks it's easy.  But Elias' goal since Day 1 has been crystal clear...and that is to have a continuous amount of elite talent flowing through the pipeline.  There are several obvious reasons as to why he'd want to do that, IMO one of them is to replace guys that Angelos doesn't want to pay to extend.  That's a roundabout way to beat the "Angelos is cheap" dead horse that everyone loves to continue to beat on.  Of course Angelos isn't going to pay 8/80 or something similar for Holliday, but at some point Elias is going to have to replace that talent with...well, more cheap, cost controlled young talent.  

If that makes it sound like Elias is arrogant, fine.  He should be, he's damn good at what he does.  But arrogance doesn't mean that he thinks what he does is easy, or that I think what he does is easy.  I can't help it if you confuse arrogance with people thinking their jobs are easy.

An elite pipeline is completely different than talking about 1 or 2 singular players that are elite level guys.

An elite pipeline is saying we can produce good to very good players and that causes us to not have to spend stupidly in free agency, hang onto vets too long because we don’t have other options and being able to keep the payroll down because we have a constant churn  of good players coming up through the system.

I stand by what I said..it’s an absurd and foolish thought process.  Zero chance Elias believes he can just get MVP level talent whenever he wants. 

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is going to be a little too much of a generalization, but I think Latino players are often more amenable to team-friendly early extensions than their American-born counterparts.   Chourio may well be the first guy in his family to not have to scrape out a living, and this sets him up for life and if he chooses he can support a lot of other people with that kind of cash.  Holliday on the other hand comes from a super-wealthy family and earned $7.7 mm before he ever played a game of pro ball.  (Note: Chourio did receive a very healthy $1.8 mm signing bonus, so it’s not like he’s hurting for cash in the short term.)

As to what it would take to sign Holliday, I have no idea.   Boras is his agent, and we know Boras doesn’t like early extensions.  Sure, he’ll do what his client tells him to do, but the client is looking to him for advice as well.   And in Holliday’s case, he can afford to “bet on himself” because he’s rich even in the worst case scenario.   

Now, would I do this deal if I was the Orioles?  Well, it’s doubtful Holliday would earn move than ($5mm/$12mm/$20 mm) in his Arb years even in the scenario where he’s a perennial all star.  Call it $40 mm through the Arb years.   So you’re talking  $60-70 mm for 2-3 years after Arb.  I’d like 3/$70 mm at lot more than 2/$60 mm for the FA years.  But overall, I think it’s too generous and risky.   Really, the only way it pans out is if Holliday is about a Seager-level player.   If he’s, say, Dansby Swanson, it’s a losing proposition, and if he’s Ahmed Rosario it’s a disaster (Rosario has been a 10 WAR player through his Arb years, so not bad at all, just not a guy who makes this kind of money).

 

I’d be careful with over generalizations.  Not all of them are dirt poor.  Same thing is happening down there that is here. 
 

https://instagram.com/enmanuel_beltre07

 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

An elite pipeline is completely different than talking about 1 or 2 singular players that are elite level guys.

An elite pipeline is saying we can produce good to very good players and that causes us to not have to spend stupidly in free agency, hang onto vets too long because we don’t have other options and being able to keep the payroll down because we have a constant churn  of good players coming up through the system.

I stand by what I said..it’s an absurd and foolish thought process.  Zero chance Elias believes he can just get MVP level talent whenever he wants. 

Ok. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt they seem more likely to take these deals..which is why I’m blowing the Chourio deal out of the water in terms of what I would offer Holliday.

Do you agree he’d have to turn out better than Dansby Swanson in order to justify it?  And are you willing to bet $110 mm that he will be better than Swanson, before Holliday has played a major league game?   Swanson was a 1:1 pick, ranked the no. 3 prospect before his first full season in the majors, and was worth 14.7 rWAR/16.3 fWAR through his Arb years.  He signed a big FA contract, but even so he will only have earned $61 mm through 8 years of service, $89 mm through 9.    

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’d be careful with over generalizations.  Not all of them are dirt poor.  Same thing is happening down there that is here. 
 

https://instagram.com/enmanuel_beltre07

 

That’s why I said it was a little too much of a generalization.  And I certainly have no idea about Chourio specifically.