Winter Meetings Thread

[24fps]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Not going to like to face Soto and Judge back to back 

That's okay, if everything goes to plan, they won't like facing Bradish and GrayRod back to back.

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I just spent the last hour fidgeting around with Baseball Trade Simulator and there are quite some interesting packages we could put together to offer for Corbin Burnes. But I was also surprised to see how low they have the trade value set for players like Tyler Wells and Anthony Santander. (Which is why I decided not to use them in any offers).

Anyone know if the Brewers can use a middle infielder? Ortiz and Norby's value is decent according that website.

There are many combinations that could work to get the deal done, if that website is even remotely close to accurate in their evaluations. (I think it's off on a lot of players.)

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator

Bryce Turang is their 2B and he was awful last year.  Willy Adames, the SS, I believe is in his walk year and lots of rumors of him going to the Dodgers.

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Ancient Chinese Proverb.  

I think I got it in a fortune cookie once...

It is a Joseph Stalin quote

[MCO'sFan]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Before Fangraphs Depth Charts starts changing stuff, at the moment they had NYY innings forecast at:

Michael King 155, Randy Vasquez 80, Jhony Brito 67 

Vasquez and Brito only projected for 14 combined GS - obviously on Padres they may go right to steadier rotation work.

Vasquez still prospect eligible, but was far behind Drew Thorpe on MLB's Yankees list.

Between Verdugo, Soto and Rule 5, NYY is down about 10 Arms in the last couple days.

Cashman’s normal knee jerk reaction. Trading away the future for very short term gain. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MCO'sFan said:

Cashman’s normal knee jerk reaction. Trading away the future for very short term gain. 

This was a great trade by the Yankees imo. I wish the Os had beaten it.

[24fps]

1 minute ago, MCO'sFan said:

Cashman’s normal knee jerk reaction. Trading away the future for very short term gain. 

God help all of us the the AL East if he ever sobers up. 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This was a great trade by the Yankees imo. I wish the Os had beaten it.

The thing about the Yankees trading for a guy with "only one year" of control is they can just back the dump truck up and sign the guy if he likes it there. Not happening with the Os.

[oriolediehard]

14 minutes ago, 24fps said:

That's okay, if everything goes to plan, they won't like facing Bradish and GrayRod back to back.

I hope Soto turns out to be like Stanton, a bust??

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

The thing about the Yankees trading for a guy with "only one year" of control is they can just back the dump truck up and sign the guy if he likes it there. Not happening with the Os.

Yep..or they put a QO on him and get a high pick back and essentially replace Thorpe immediately.

Grisham also gives them some sorely needed athleticism as well.

[orioles119]

Soto is the definition of overrated.  He frankly hasn't been that good since the Nationals won the World Series.

[24fps]

5 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I hope Soto turns out to be like Stanton, a bust??

I do too.  Is there anything more fun than laughing at the Yankees?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

Soto is the definition of overrated.  He frankly hasn't been that good since the Nationals won the World Series.

He’s coming off a 5.5 WAR season and an OpS over 900, with an OBP over 400 and he did it in a very difficult park to hit in.

Hes going to crush it at Yankee stadium.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

Soto is the definition of overrated.  He frankly hasn't been that good since the Nationals won the World Series.

On what planet is 5.5 WAR with a .410 OBP and 35 bombs not good?

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always thought that idea was kind of misguided.  A good contract enhances the value of the team.  

The problem is, if you plug them into a spreadsheet, free agent contracts are not good contracts. If you consider the free agency market to be perfectly efficient, signing a free agent is worth $0 to your franchise value (because if you were to be able to sign them on a “bargain” where it were able to increase your franchise value, another team would be willing to beat your offer, up to $0). Add in the fact that big market teams value incremental wins at a higher price of $/win, and it’s not good for the Orioles’ valuation to beat out big market teams to add higher quality players on multi-year contracts. 

Extensions for arb and pre-arb players are a little different, though, because you are locking in salaries that should already be accounted for in projections. And the free agent years are bought out at a discount. You’re taking on risk that counteracts that discount, but generally that still ends up a net positive for the team because the young player is willing to make bigger risk/reward concessions than the team in return for locking in their first contract with massively life changing money. 

Until Angelos sells, I’m still holding out hope we may see some extensions (particularly for non-Boras / smaller signing bonus players), but I have very little optimism for any significant free agent deals. I think everything will be 1-3 years, with a slim chance of a 4 year deal and I’d be floored by anything 5+.  I’d love to be proven wrong. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

On what planet is 5.5 WAR with a .410 OBP and 35 bombs not good?

Our only hope is that he completely craters defensively to Kyle Schwarber levels and becomes something like a perennial 4 WAR DH getting paid like a 6+ WAR player. There’s no way to put a positive spin on the Yankees getting Soto and I’m doing my best to ignore that reality.