Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[Frobby]

Ken Rosenthal posted some speculation that the O’s could be chasing Jesus Luzardo.  I wouldn’t categorize this as a rumor, more just speculation on what could happen.  

Do you think Luzardo is a realistic target?  Wouid you rather have Luzardo than Cease?   What do you think it would it take to land Luzardo?
 

[orioles119]

I prefer Luzardo for several factors (younger, lefty, more control remaining).  The only worry is the cost in the number of prospects, which could be greater than the ask for Cease.

[E-D-D-I-E]

Interesting stat, Luzardo had an incredibly high ERA with RISP. 12.43. That had to come with some bad luck for him and I suspect that will drop a good bit. 

[Rustbelt]

Luzardo is very attractive target although I doubt he is available.  Braxton Garrett is another pitcher to target from the Marlins.  Again, it is also doubtful if he is available. 

[interloper]

I think it's realistic if the Marlins are willing to trade a 4-WAR SP, but there's no way of knowing that. It's annoyingly tough to tell sometimes whether Ken has a real rumor or if he's just throwing an article up like "you know what would be cool??" 

So, I'm skeptical it's more than pure speculation. But in a vacuum, sure, that would be amazing. 

[forphase1]

I think I prefer Luzardo too.  That said I'm not sure on the cost.  Part of my issue is that some of the 'kids' I'm counting on this year to make us a better team overall (Westburg/Ortiz and Cowser/Kjerstad) would be those traded.  I'm not sure I want Luzardo if the cost is keeping Mateo/Urias on the roster and starting frequently because Westburg and Ortiz are gone.  Or not having a good plan for when Hays inevitably gets hurt and we can plug in Cowser/Kjerstad.  So it just depends on how much of the MLB ready players we'd have to trade to get Luzardo.  

[Aristotelian]

Realistic in terms of being a good fit and our ability to match their price. I don't think it's realistic in terms of our willingness to part with elite prospects or Luzardo's availability. I would think we would need to give up at least Mayo or Basallo to get three years of a pitcher coming off a 4 WAR season. Trade Simulator has him as a 63 just as a point of reference.

I think Cabrera and Rogers are more realistic. Meyer would be a sneaky high risk/high reward target.

[Matt Bennett]

Just sign Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s nothing on the payroll and you don’t have to give up 6 years of the Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz’s of the world who will contribute to the team and make us better THIS YEAR. 

[Sports Guy]

I was going to start a thread about Luzardo and Frobby beat me to it.

First of all, to answer the question, I think he’s realistic in the sense that Miami does have a lot of SP depth and since they aren’t going to be in the FA market either, at least not difference making talent market, they could move guys for positional talent if they get what they want.

The larger question to me is, how much should we want to give up for Luzardo?

He turned 26 at the end of September. 

Luzardo has been in the majors since 2019 and his 2023 season was easily the most innings he has ever thrown. In fact, he threw 40% of his career innings in 2023. He missed time in 2022 due to a forearm strain. His 2021 injury was a freak accident where he broke his pinky. 

His K rate was high in 2023 (and 2022), he misses a lot of bats and he threw strikes at the highest rate of his career in 2023, although throwing strikes has been an issue in the past. 

His statcast numbers have consistently shown a guy who is very mediocre at limiting hard contact.  Righties have him relatively well and lefties have struggled.

Luzardo is a Boras client and it appears he was a super 2 guy. He has 3 years of arbitration left.

Id take him for sure but im not sure I give up much more for him compared to Cease and if Cease is less to acquire by a decent amount, id prefer him.

[Orange]

It would take a big package, but they do need position players... Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Povich, McDermott, and maybe a youngster like Almeyda. That might not get it done though. They'll want Holliday but they can't have him. I would trade those six for him. Luzardo is everything I want.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Orange said:

It would take a big package, but they do need position players... Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Povich, McDermott, and maybe a youngster like Almeyda. That might not get it done though. They'll want Holliday but they can't have him. I would trade those six for him. Luzardo is everything I want.

That’s a laughable package. 

[Orange]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

That’s a laughable package. 

What would you offer?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Orange said:

It would take a big package, but they do need position players... Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Povich, McDermott, and maybe a youngster like Almeyda. That might not get it done though. They'll want Holliday but they can't have him. I would trade those six for him. Luzardo is everything I want.

That is way, way, WAY, WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much. Insanity. 

[HakunaSakata]

Interesting. This is the first I've heard of Luzardo possibly being available this offseason. Is he a realistic target? That depends. Are we willing to give up more than some of the proposed potential packages I've seen discussed for Cease? Because Luzardo might not be quite as proven as Cease, but he's a year young and is under contract (albeit arbitration eligible) for an extra year. I suspect he would command a bit more. In terms of performance, I'd prefer him a bit to Cease, mostly because he doesn't walk as many batters (55 vs 79 last season). I do think Luzardo is a bit more of an injury risk though. 

And I'm only citing this as a bench mark (i.e. don't kill the messenger), but Cease's surplus BTV is listed as 40.4 and Luzardo's is listed as 63.3.

In looking at the Marlin's roster their biggest immediate needs seem to be SS, OF, and DH (or 1B, depending on where they play Josh Bell). I know some will immediately suggest Santander or Mountcastle as possible fits, but they're not in the same stratosphere as Luzardo. If the Marlins want a veteran I think a trade based around Mullins + Westberg (if they believe in him as a SS) might get it done. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Orange said:

What would you offer?

 I can see a bunch of scenarios here. I could see Miami wanting an established Ml player because they aren’t rebuilding or anything.

Could they want Hays? Or Santander? I could see that.

But under zero circumstances am I even remotely considering our top 3 prospects.

Luzardo has proven less than many other options. He has the extra year but it’s an expensive year. He’s different than most guys who have 3 years left because he was a super 2 guy. 
 

I’m not going crazy for him. I’m fine with Cowser, Ortiz and Norby if they only want young cheap guys. I’d consider throwing in a 4th player but I think that’s starting to get crazy for him.