Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I actually think Mountcastle might have his career year this year so I’m curious to see what he does but if those are my only choices, then #1.   #2 is tempting but I’m not sure if Max Meyer is all that.

I think I lean #2 mostly because I think it's a pretty affordable price to find out if M. Meyer is still good. I like Cabrera's stuff, but everytime I see some of his erratic pitching lines I have flashbacks to another Cabrera (Daniel). 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

LOL at you using 101 innings (instead of the standard 100) to make your point, but I get it. I just think it's less of a stretch for the Marlins to sell Luzardo as what he did in 2023 (and chalk the prior seasons up to development) than it is for the White Sox to try to ignore what Cease did in 2023 and try to sell his 2022 season as the norm. 

Well I didn’t want to say 100 because someone would be like, well he threw 100.1 IP. 
 

Cease has shown the ability to throw a lot more innings and be more durable though. Availability matters a lot.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Here's a question. Assuming these three trades are on the table, which one are you making? 

1) Mountcastle + Willems for E. Cabrera

3) Norby + Santander for M. Meyer

4) Basallo + Cowser for Luzardo

 

 

Where is #2?

I’d do both of the first 2. In fact, I would love to combine them and do both.

 The third one isn’t even worth consideration.

[Warehouse]

I think the 2020 Blake Snell trade is the best comp for a Luzardo trade. At the time Snell had more career WAR but Luzardo is coming off a better year.  Both with 3 cost-controlled years remaining.

Luis Patino (16-23 in national rankings) = Mayo or Basallo

Cole Wilcox (prior year 3rd round overslot getting 1st round money) = Mac Horvath

Blake Hunt (ranked 12-19 in strong Rays org) = Jackson Baumeister or Seth Johnson

Meija (former top 100 prospect with 2 years service time) = Ramon Urias (less upside and only 3 years but higher floor)

This is based on how the prospects were viewed at the time. In hindsight, the Padres obviously got the better end of the deal.

You can argue that Cowser or Kjerstad are top 25 prospects, but I’m skeptical that’s where they will shake out when updated prospect lists come out next month.  That being said, I think a slightly weaker headliner could easily be offset with Ortiz as the second piece or including Povich/De Leon instead of Baumeister/Johnson and throwing in Stowers as a fifth piece.

Package 1: Mayo, Horvath, Baumeister, Urias (I’d be reluctant to part with Mayo)

Package 2: Cowser, Ortiz, Baumeister, Urias

Package 3: Cowser, Horvath, Povich, Urias, Stowers

Swap out Urias for Cole Irvin if they want more pitching.  

[Safelykept]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Where is #2?

I’d do both of the first 2. In fact, I would love to combine them and do both.

 The third one isn’t even worth consideration.

Me too.

 

[ChicagoTerp]

10 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

I think the 2020 Blake Snell trade is the best comp for a Luzardo trade. At the time Snell had more career WAR but Luzardo is coming off a better year.  Both with 3 cost-controlled years remaining.

Luis Patino (16-23 in national rankings) = Mayo or Basallo

Cole Wilcox (prior year 3rd round overslot getting 1st round money) = Mac Horvath

Blake Hunt (ranked 12-19 in strong Rays org) = Jackson Baumeister or Seth Johnson

Meija (former top 100 prospect with 2 years service time) = Ramon Urias (less upside and only 3 years but higher floor)

This is based on how the prospects were viewed at the time. In hindsight, the Padres obviously got the better end of the deal.

You can argue that Cowser or Kjerstad are top 25 prospects, but I’m skeptical that’s where they will shake out when updated prospect lists come out next month.  That being said, I think a slightly weaker headliner could easily be offset with Ortiz as the second piece or including Povich/De Leon instead of Baumeister/Johnson and throwing in Stowers as a fifth piece.

Package 1: Mayo, Horvath, Baumeister, Urias (I’d be reluctant to part with Mayo)

Package 2: Cowser, Ortiz, Baumeister, Urias

Package 3: Cowser, Horvath, Povich, Urias, Stowers

Swap out Urias for Cole Irvin if they want more pitching.  

Good analysis. I think ONE of Cowser, Basallo, Mayo (Cowser would require better secondary pieces, and I also really hope not to trade Mayo) would have to go for Luzardo. But not two of them. With Kjerstad, I just have a feeling he's borderline off limits for Elias. No reason, just a hunch.

[ThisIsBirdland]

Applicable in both the Cease/Luzardo threads. Morosi still thinks its more likely than not we trade for a SP.

[dystopia]

22 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Applicable in both the Cease/Luzardo threads. Morosi still thinks its more likely than not we trade for a SP.

So we aren’t trading for a pitcher then. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think I lean #2 mostly because I think it's a pretty affordable price to find out if M. Meyer is still good. I like Cabrera's stuff, but everytime I see some of his erratic pitching lines I have flashbacks to another Cabrera (Daniel). 

Still good?  I don’t know if Max Meyer was ever good.  He hasn’t proven a thing at the ML level.   His minor league numbers were good but certainly not eye popping good.  BA scouting report pegged him as maybe a #3 starter or high leverage reliever.   
 

I’d trade Norby + another prospect like Stowers (maybe better) just to use minor league depth to improve our pitching depth but not Norby + Santander.

[ChicagoTerp]

30 minutes ago, dystopia said:

So we aren’t trading for a pitcher then. 

Where is Luzardo's private jet today?

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Where is #2?

2 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Me too.

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, Warehouse said:

I think the 2020 Blake Snell trade is the best comp for a Luzardo trade. At the time Snell had more career WAR but Luzardo is coming off a better year.  Both with 3 cost-controlled years remaining.

Luis Patino (16-23 in national rankings) = Mayo or Basallo

Cole Wilcox (prior year 3rd round overslot getting 1st round money) = Mac Horvath

Blake Hunt (ranked 12-19 in strong Rays org) = Jackson Baumeister or Seth Johnson

Meija (former top 100 prospect with 2 years service time) = Ramon Urias (less upside and only 3 years but higher floor)

This is based on how the prospects were viewed at the time. In hindsight, the Padres obviously got the better end of the deal.

You can argue that Cowser or Kjerstad are top 25 prospects, but I’m skeptical that’s where they will shake out when updated prospect lists come out next month.  That being said, I think a slightly weaker headliner could easily be offset with Ortiz as the second piece or including Povich/De Leon instead of Baumeister/Johnson and throwing in Stowers as a fifth piece.

Package 1: Mayo, Horvath, Baumeister, Urias (I’d be reluctant to part with Mayo)

Package 2: Cowser, Ortiz, Baumeister, Urias

Package 3: Cowser, Horvath, Povich, Urias, Stowers

Swap out Urias for Cole Irvin if they want more pitching.  

Westburg was like a top 25ish prospect on MLB Pipeline so it is possible that he could be the headliner if the rest of the package is stout enough. Maybe something like Westburg, Hays, Beavers or Fabian, Baumann, and a pitching prospect they like that isn't Povich, McDermott, or De Leon?

They would get a stud 2B/3B that already debuted and performed pretty well and still has a full 6 years of control as the centerpiece, plus 2 years of a solid everyday COF and a promising potential replacement for 2026 in Hays and Beavers/Fabian, an interesting arm with 5 years of control to tinker with in Baumann, and another young arm that they like to add to their pipeline- Armbruester, Bright, whoever. 

That seems like it would be a pretty good haul for a guy like Luzardo, who has shown a ton of upside but still has some lingering questions about his ability to carry a true rotation anchor's workload year in and year out.

[HakunaSakata]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Still good?  I don’t know if Max Meyer was ever good.  He hasn’t proven a thing at the ML level.   His minor league numbers were good but certainly not eye popping good.  BA scouting report pegged him as maybe a #3 starter or high leverage reliever.   
 

I’d trade Norby + another prospect like Stowers (maybe better) just to use minor league depth to improve our pitching depth but not Norby + Santander.

I'm not sure how you can look at Meyer's 2021 numbers (see below) and not call them "eye popping good". And neither player (Meyer or Norby) have proven themselves at the ML level. In hindsight, maybe Norby for Meyer straight up is the trade to make. And if the Marlins want Santander too they can add in a lower level prospect on their end. 

Season	Team	LG	Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	HLD	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	NP	HB	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
2021	2 teams	-	Minors	6	4	2.27	22	22	0	0	0	0	0	111.0	90	40	28	8	1638	3	42	0	130	.221	1.19	1.39

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Westburg was like a top 25ish prospect on MLB Pipeline so it is possible that he could be the headliner if the rest of the package is stout enough. Maybe something like Westburg, Hays, Beavers or Fabian, Baumann, and a pitching prospect they like that isn't Povich, McDermott, or De Leon?

They would get a stud 2B/3B that already debuted and performed pretty well and still has a full 6 years of control as the centerpiece, plus 2 years of a solid everyday COF and a promising potential replacement for 2026 in Hays and Beavers/Fabian, an interesting arm with 5 years of control to tinker with in Baumann, and another young arm that they like to add to their pipeline- Armbruester, Bright, whoever. 

That seems like it would be a pretty good haul for a guy like Luzardo, who has shown a ton of upside but still has some lingering questions about his ability to carry a true rotation anchor's workload year in and year out.

Westburg wasn’t ranked that highly but that is largely irrelevant after he went to the majors and held his own. That supersedes prospect ranking.

[ThisIsBirdland]

17 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Westburg was like a top 25ish prospect on MLB Pipeline so it is possible that he could be the headliner if the rest of the package is stout enough. Maybe something like Westburg, Hays, Beavers or Fabian, Baumann, and a pitching prospect they like that isn't Povich, McDermott, or De Leon?

They would get a stud 2B/3B that already debuted and performed pretty well and still has a full 6 years of control as the centerpiece, plus 2 years of a solid everyday COF and a promising potential replacement for 2026 in Hays and Beavers/Fabian, an interesting arm with 5 years of control to tinker with in Baumann, and another young arm that they like to add to their pipeline- Armbruester, Bright, whoever. 

That seems like it would be a pretty good haul for a guy like Luzardo, who has shown a ton of upside but still has some lingering questions about his ability to carry a true rotation anchor's workload year in and year out.

I think this is one of the more reasonable, yet not too painful, trade scenarios I've seen laid out. Tough balance, but seems realistic enough.