High praise from BA on our minor league pitching development program

[NJOriolesFan]

I wonder what this regime would have accomplished with the prospect that was Dylan Bundy, or if he was the guy we would have gone after in the first place

[Rbiggs2525]

Very good article. I believe our minor league pitching could take a major jump from the previous draft. Baumeister, Lord, Wells, Sharkey and more. I would like to build something like the Yankees had last year. With 5-10 pitchers that are MLB ready in the minors. 

[Rustbelt]

Two pitchers who I will be following this year are Baumler and De Leon.  These two may make big jumps if healthy (big if with Baumler).

[Rustbelt]

Two pitchers who I will be following this year are Baumler and De Leon.  These two may make big jumps if healthy (big if with Baumler).

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

I wonder what this regime would have accomplished with the prospect that was Dylan Bundy, or if he was the guy we would have gone after in the first place

Bundy's problem was injuries.

[ThomasTomasz]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I suggest that anyone who thinks we are way behind on the pitching side of things should read this:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/o-s-pitching-development-program-got-some-props-from-baseball-america

 

Geoff Pontes is co-founder of Prospects Live, and Dylan White just joined BA from Prospects Live a few months ago.  Going back to when I first started listening to them in 2021, they’ve been high on everything that the Orioles have done.  So it is not a surprise to see those two specifically mentioned in that article.  

If anyone plays dynasty baseball with prospects, I highly recommend giving PLive a follow.  Even if you just use their top 30 lists per team and don’t subscribe to their Patreon where they do a top 500 prospects and top 1000 dynasty list, along with a trade analyzer, you will come away with a wealth of knowledge.  These guys know their stuff.  

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I suggest that anyone who thinks we are way behind on the pitching side of things should read this:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/o-s-pitching-development-program-got-some-props-from-baseball-america

 

Ok, I read it but besides some fluff comments about the lab, what in this article makes us know they are great at developing pitchers? 

Now, I'm not saying they are bad at it, but besides McDermott and Povich, where are the upside arms in the system and what makes you think they are going to be great? Are there interesting guys, sure, but I think it's worth noting that both McDermott and Povich were acquired in trades. 

Elias has yet to draft and develop a top pitching prospect. Part of that has been his unwillingness to draft them in the first few rounds, opting instead to load up on college hitting prospects that he has held onto as of today.

The top prospect that he drafted and developed is Jackson Baumeister (#16) and he's only there due to upside potential since he didn't pitch professionally after being drafted. 

So really the best pitching prospect that he's drafted and developed is Trace Bright (5th rounder, 2022) who comes in at #21 and is probably heading to relief at some point but could still develop into a starter I suppose. 

So we keep hearing about them looking for these "stuff profile" guys, but let's be honest here, it hasn't worked out yet from the drafting and development portion so far. 

I really do feel like Elias and company thought a little too highly of their ability to find "pitch profile" guys in the 10th to 20th rounds and develop them but it's been a tougher go then I think they believed. Brandon Young (UDF signee after COVID shortened draft) is probably the best of those kinds of guys but he probably would have been more of a 5th-10th rounder had the draft gone into more rounds.

Thankfully, this last draft where they took Baumeister, Lord and Wells in the top three rounds tells me that they're waving the white flag on that initial strategy to ignore pitching in the top rounds. 

We know the Orioles have a "pitching lab" and we know the Orioles do a good job of providing data to their pitchers on how to use their stuff well. I mean, you can look at the success these pitchers have up to the Double-A level (Arbruester/Pham/Watson come to mind) but then the reality of there lack of stuff or consistency because obvious at the AAA level. There's a reason those guys were available after the 10th round and the other 29 teams are all not dumb.

But what we don't have is a major league success story of a pitcher drafted and developed from those later rounds that have helped the big league team win. I'm not trying to be a wet blanket here, but am saying let's not put the cart before the horse here.

Until we see major league success from pitchers who were drafted and developed by the Orioles, then I'm going to hold off from anointing them as a great team at developing pitching. 

Now, is Elias and his staff good at identifying those pitchers who have reached AAA or pitching in the majors (perhaps unsuccessfully) and made some adjustments to get value out of them? Absolutely.

There is no doubt they did a good job developing Bradish and Kremer (both acquired in trade with Kremer acquired by previous regime) and last year I'll give credit to Ramsey for finding the tweaks with Rodriguez (of course he's working with TOR stuff) to make him a different guy when he returned. But why did Rodriguez still need those teaks in the first place at 23-years old and in Elias' system for most of his minor league career? 

At the end of the day, the book is still out on the Orioles ability to draft and develop pitching, and a fluff story with quotes from Elias telling us how good they are mean nothing until it's proven at the major league level.




 

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, I read it but besides some fluff comments about the lab, what in this article makes us know they are great at developing pitchers? 

Now, I'm not saying they are bad at it, but besides McDermott and Povich, where are the upside arms in the system and what makes you think they are going to be great? Are there interesting guys, sure, but I think it's worth noting that both McDermott and Povich were acquired in trades. 

Elias has yet to draft and develop a top pitching prospect. Part of that has been his unwillingness to draft them in the first few rounds, opting instead to load up on college hitting prospects that he has held onto as of today.

The top prospect that he drafted and developed is Jackson Baumeister (#16) and he's only there due to upside potential since he didn't pitch professionally after being drafted. 

So really the best pitching prospect that he's drafted and developed is Trace Bright (5th rounder, 2022) who comes in at #21 and is probably heading to relief at some point but could still develop into a starter I suppose. 

So we keep hearing about them looking for these "stuff profile" guys, but let's be honest here, it hasn't worked out yet from the drafting and development portion so far. 

I really do feel like Elias and company thought a little too highly of their ability to find "pitch profile" guys in the 10th to 20th rounds and develop them but it's been a tougher go then I think they believed. Brandon Young (UDF signee after COVID shortened draft) is probably the best of those kinds of guys but he probably would have been more of a 5th-10th rounder had the draft gone into more rounds.

Thankfully, this last draft where they took Baumeister, Lord and Wells in the top three rounds tells me that they're waving the white flag on that initial strategy to ignore pitching in the top rounds. 

We know the Orioles have a "pitching lab" and we know the Orioles do a good job of providing data to their pitchers on how to use their stuff well. I mean, you can look at the success these pitchers have up to the Double-A level (Arbruester/Pham/Watson come to mind) but then the reality of there lack of stuff or consistency because obvious at the AAA level. There's a reason those guys were available after the 10th round and the other 29 teams are all not dumb.

But what we don't have is a major league success story of a pitcher drafted and developed from those later rounds that have helped the big league team win. I'm not trying to be a wet blanket here, but am saying let's not put the cart before the horse here.

Until we see major league success from pitchers who were drafted and developed by the Orioles, then I'm going to hold off from anointing them as a great team at developing pitching. 

Now, is Elias and his staff good at identifying those pitchers who have reached AAA or pitching in the majors (perhaps unsuccessfully) and made some adjustments to get value out of them? Absolutely.

There is no doubt they did a good job developing Bradish and Kremer (both acquired in trade with Kremer acquired by previous regime) and last year I'll give credit to Ramsey for finding the tweaks with Rodriguez (of course he's working with TOR stuff) to make him a different guy when he returned. But why did Rodriguez still need those teaks in the first place at 23-years old and in Elias' system for most of his minor league career? 

At the end of the day, the book is still out on the Orioles ability to draft and develop pitching, and a fluff story with quotes from Elias telling us how good they are mean nothing until it's proven at the major league level.




 

I'm confused: is it a MASN puff piece people are expressing excitement over, or the BA Farm System Pitching Statcast Rankings which sounds like just raw data rankings? The latter seems worthy of getting some positive attention even if the guys haven't fully developed yet.