Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Not me …

 

 

Well, he performed poorly in the post season ….his last 5 starts …. Didn’t go over 5.1 IP and only completed 5 twice …. He gave up 6, 3, 5, 4, and 3 over that span. Those performances were very Flaherty like. 

If it’s a free agent it’s Snell …. Trade Burnes and an extension. No reason not to spend now.

Extending Burnes, who has seen his stats the decline the last few years, is a bad idea.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Why wouldn’t they be?

It was sarcasm.  Of course they're aware.

I'm simply wondering if they have some other data sets that they look at that don't necessarily invalidate the statcast information, but place it secondary.  At first glance, I agree, the statcast numbers aren't totally impressive and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

But if the statcast numbers were the only thing to go on, I'd wonder why they'd want to target him, too.  There's no way to tell what they're looking at when they're evaluating someone like this, but I'd love to know.  

[DirtyBird]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It was sarcasm.  Of course they're aware.

I'm simply wondering if they have some other data sets that they look at that don't necessarily invalidate the statcast information, but place it secondary.  At first glance, I agree, the statcast numbers aren't totally impressive and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

But if the statcast numbers were the only thing to go on, I'd wonder why they'd want to target him, too.  There's no way to tell what they're looking at when they're evaluating someone like this, but I'd love to know.  

But why would you even say it? This is a place for serious discussion.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It was sarcasm.  Of course they're aware.

I'm simply wondering if they have some other data sets that they look at that don't necessarily invalidate the statcast information, but place it secondary.  At first glance, I agree, the statcast numbers aren't totally impressive and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

But if the statcast numbers were the only thing to go on, I'd wonder why they'd want to target him, too.  There's no way to tell what they're looking at when they're evaluating someone like this, but I'd love to know.  

I always operate on the assumption that if the Orioles are actually looking at a player they (1) know every single thing I know, (2) know a whole lot of things I don’t know, and (3) have a pretty systematic way of evaluating and weighing all those things.  

[HakunaSakata]

I think Valdez has some major red flags in his pitching profile and he's not quite the white whale that you're making him out to be. He doesn't miss enough bats and he routinely outperforms his underlying numbers. And my guess is that we would have to pay more for him than the other SPs who are supposedly on the trading block. I think I'd rather have Burnes, Cease, and maybe even Luzardo (mostly because he's so much younger). Valdez feels a lot like Johnny Cueto 2.0 to me and Cueto fell off pretty hard in his 30s.

[oriole]

Valdez is at the top of my list. Seems like a win-win if Houston is willing to take prospects over major league talent. There’s an enormous need for a quality starter on this team and if we lose a couple of the top 10 prospects, we’d still have one of the better farm systems. Cowser, Beavers, Povich? Mayo, Ortiz, McDermott? Basallo, Norby, Johnson? I dunno, any of those trios would be good for both teams I think. 

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think Valdez has some major red flags in his pitching profile and he's not quite the white whale that you're making him out to be. He doesn't miss enough bats and he routinely outperforms his underlying numbers. And my guess is that we would have to pay more for him than the other SPs who are supposedly on the trading block. I think I'd rather have Burnes, Cease, and maybe even Luzardo (mostly because he's so much younger). Valdez feels a lot like Johnny Cueto 2.0 to me and Cueto fell off pretty hard in his 30s.

Yea I don’t get the love for him either. Everyone who is interested in him are ignoring too many key factors.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Sports Guy

[interloper]

It all depends on what you can get him for. But I still don't buy that the Astros are seriously going to trade him. The article in the OP sites the rumor from a writer at CHOWDER & CHAMPIONS. Lmao. 

Slow offseason man. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

21 minutes ago, oriole said:

Valdez is at the top of my list. Seems like a win-win if Houston is willing to take prospects over major league talent. There’s an enormous need for a quality starter on this team and if we lose a couple of the top 10 prospects, we’d still have one of the better farm systems. Cowser, Beavers, Povich? Mayo, Ortiz, McDermott? Basallo, Norby, Johnson? I dunno, any of those trios would be good for both teams I think. 

No, we're not trading Mayo or Basallo.  Mayo or Basallo for Valdez would be - as SG likes to say- "the height of stupidity."

I understand the hesitancy to deal for him based on the items listed here.  For the record, I'd be fine with trading for him, depending on what we give up, of course.  I don't think Elias would part with a guy like Mayo or Basallo and if he did I'd be pretty pissed about it.  

But if they could get Valdez for Ortiz, Beavers, Norby or something like that, I'd be alright with it.  Essentially not parting with any of our remaining big four prospects (Cowser (yep, I said it), Mayo, Basallo, Holliday) but giving up the second tier guys who are still plenty good but not identified as key cornerstones for the future.

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think we’re willing to pay the money price tag, let alone the prospect price. I think we’re looking at Dylan Cease and that will take several factors for him to fall for us. Like the Dodgers not being in on him. 

We’ll roll with Wells after a ST “battle” with Hall and Irvin. 

[Rbiggs2525]

38 minutes ago, oriole said:

Valdez is at the top of my list. Seems like a win-win if Houston is willing to take prospects over major league talent. There’s an enormous need for a quality starter on this team and if we lose a couple of the top 10 prospects, we’d still have one of the better farm systems. Cowser, Beavers, Povich? Mayo, Ortiz, McDermott? Basallo, Norby, Johnson? I dunno, any of those trios would be good for both teams I think. 

I would have to include some of these arbitration players to reduce the cost. Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, Urias. 

[oriole]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No, we're not trading Mayo or Basallo.  Mayo or Basallo for Valdez would be - as SG likes to say- "the height of stupidity."

I understand the hesitancy to deal for him based on the items listed here.  For the record, I'd be fine with trading for him, depending on what we give up, of course.  I don't think Elias would part with a guy like Mayo or Basallo and if he did I'd be pretty pissed about it.  

But if they could get Valdez for Ortiz, Beavers, Norby or something like that, I'd be alright with it.  Essentially not parting with any of our remaining big four prospects (Cowser (yep, I said it), Mayo, Basallo, Holliday) but giving up the second tier guys who are still plenty good but not identified as key cornerstones for the future.

Ortiz, Beavers, and Norby is way too light. I think that the price of business in MLB is just crazy high. Free agents are getting stupid contracts and it will take a lot of prospects to make a trade happen. I think the best team is going to be one with a mix of quality veterans and high upside younger players. Right now the O’s are leaning excessively heavy on the latter while also having enough prospects that there’s too many to have playing time for everyone. 
 

Sitting around and refusing to meet the demands is negligent. I wouldn’t give up Mayo AND Basallo for Valdez, but one of them seems reasonable to me considering they’re not likely to help significantly in the next couple years and the next couple years really should be about getting a World Series, not fielding half an active roster that have barely gotten their feet wet.

 

Also, it’s worth mentioning that while you may call my trade idea as the height of stupidity, an Astros fan would call a return of what you suggest the exact same thing. It’s all relative, we like our guys, right? Well, too much weight shifted on your own guys is a good way to end up doing nothing at all.

[oriole]

4 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I would have to include some of these arbitration players to reduce the cost. Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, Urias. 

You worried Angelos won’t have enough to eat or something? I assure you, he’ll be just fine.

[Rbiggs2525]

13 minutes ago, oriole said:

You worried Angelos won’t have enough to eat or something? I assure you, he’ll be just fine.

I will never defend JA but actually for the fact I do not believe Valdez is a 25-35 million dollar asset. So the Astros eating 5-10 million in the trade would make sense.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

Ortiz, Beavers, and Norby is way too light. I think that the price of business in MLB is just crazy high. Free agents are getting stupid contracts and it will take a lot of prospects to make a trade happen. I think the best team is going to be one with a mix of quality veterans and high upside younger players. Right now the O’s are leaning excessively heavy on the latter while also having enough prospects that there’s too many to have playing time for everyone. 
 

Sitting around and refusing to meet the demands is negligent. I wouldn’t give up Mayo AND Basallo for Valdez, but one of them seems reasonable to me considering they’re not likely to help significantly in the next couple years and the next couple years really should be about getting a World Series, not fielding half an active roster that have barely gotten their feet wet.

 

Also, it’s worth mentioning that while you may call my trade idea as the height of stupidity, an Astros fan would call a return of what you suggest the exact same thing. It’s all relative, we like our guys, right? Well, too much weight shifted on your own guys is a good way to end up doing nothing at all.

 

First of all, we don't know what the Astros are demanding.  I also didn't say you said that you'd give up Mayo AND Basallo.

To dismiss our prospects as "fielding half an active roster that barely have gotten their feet wet" is a bit silly, too.  I just saw the Rangers win a World Series with Evan Carter (who I'd kill to have) and Josh Jung.  Fielding half an active roster with guys like Basallo, Holliday, Cowser and Mayo isn't a bad thing.  

Valdez is a really good pitcher, but I don't think he's in the class of a top flight ace like Gerrit Cole.  While Framber has had some really good moments and really good seasons, what can't be ignored is what SG pointed out as well as some others...he outpitches his peripherals and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

If you think Ortiz, Beavers and Norby is way too light, fine.  Add someone else outside of Mayo, Basallo, Cowser and Holliday.  Let's also remember we're not someone like the Angels who don't have any prospects to trade and haven't graduated any legit prospects in recent memory.  We've got outstanding baseball people running an outstanding operation when it comes to scouting, drafting and developing talent, doing business with the Orioles should carry that premium that goes along with it.  Guys like Ortiz, Norby, Stowers, Beavers, whoever else would be top 5 guys for a lot of other systems. Just because they're not top 5 guys in our system doesn't mean they wouldn't have value for a system like the Astros who have depleted their system and were ranked last in the second half of last year.