Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[E-D-D-I-E]

With Burnes coming out publicly about not signing an extension, I think that opens the door wide open for us. The Brewers have lost their leverage now and the ask has just shrunk. 

Valdez is going to cost a haul of prospects, but I certainly would be "checking in" with Houston.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

We're talking about missing bats. That's it. Cease's WHIP is high because he walks more batters. Valdez's WHIP is high because he doesn't miss as many bats. It's really that simple. 

Except that Valdez doesn’t have a high WHIP.  His WHIP is well below league average.  For that matter, Cease’s career 1.305 is roughly league average.  

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Except that Valdez doesn’t have a high WHIP.  His WHIP is well below league average.  For that matter, Cease’s career 1.305 is roughly league average.  

He’s not saying the WHIp is high. He’s essentially saying if Valdez missed more bats, their would be less balls in play, therefore his WHIP would be even lower.

 

[dystopia]

Valdez has had a steady 7.5 h/9 the last 3 years (not a SSS) while walking less batters than Cease. I’d prefer him between the two of them. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not saying the WHIp is high. He’s essentially saying if Valdez missed more bats, their would be less balls in play, therefore his WHIP would be even lower.

 

Oh.  I guess I misinterpreted the words “Valdez’s WHIP is high.”   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Oh.  I guess I misinterpreted the words “Valdez’s WHIP is high.”   

Was talking about his car.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Oh.  I guess I misinterpreted the words “Valdez’s WHIP is high.”   

I think he’s just talking about it being high in the context of its higher than it would be if he missed more bats.

I don’t think (maybe I’m wrong) that he believes the actual number is high but the context of the conversation is based around missing bats.

[Number5]

Using WHIP to somehow argue Cease's value over Valdez's is simply illogical.  If he is saying that if Valdez gave up fewer hits his WHIP would be lower... well, duh.  That's is true of every pitcher in history who gave up at least one hit.  Valdez historically has yielded fewer base runners per inning than Cease by a statistically relevant amount.

[HakunaSakata]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh.  I guess I misinterpreted the words “Valdez’s WHIP is high.”   

If you go back to my first reply my words were "for the majority of his career" Valdez has had a bad WHIP and as someone else pointed out I wasn't trying to make an apples to apples comparision between Valdez and Cease's WHIP. I was just using it as an example to make a point about Valdez not missing as many bats.  Yes, Valdez has been a better pitcher so far in his career, but if Cease costs less to trade for then I'd rather have him because he's younger and I think his pitching skill set will age better. 

This is officially my last post/reply about Valdez and missing bats because I've been fillibustered out of caring. 

[Number5]

13 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yes, Valdez has been a better pitcher so far in his career, but if Cease costs less to trade for then I'd rather have him

This I can agree with.  All things being equal, Valdez is the better fit for the Orioles because he has had the better, more consistent career thus far, had the better season in 2023, and is left-handed.  All things are rarely equal, however.  I might be willing to pay a little more for Valdez, but there eventually is a price point at which the cost difference exceeds the degree to which the fit favors Valdez.  Both are good pitchers, and I'd be happy with either, provided the cost makes sense.

[Frobby]

I’d be happy getting either pitcher, but I’d rather have Valdez if the value exchanged was equal.  Simply put, he’s more consistent.   Cease has a higher ceiling but Valdez is highly likely to be a well above average starter.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’d be happy getting either pitcher, but I’d rather have Valdez if the value exchanged was equal.  Simply put, he’s more consistent.   Cease has a higher ceiling but Valdez is highly likely to be a well above average starter.   

And because of that, the cost won’t be equal even with him having a higher salary.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And because of that, the cost won’t be equal even with him having a higher salary.

I think that’s true, and depending what the demanded return for each pitcher is, that might cause me to prefer a Cease trade to a Valdez trade.   But you really can’t say without knowing what return is demanded for each pitcher.  

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be happy getting either pitcher, but I’d rather have Valdez if the value exchanged was equal.  Simply put, he’s more consistent.   Cease has a higher ceiling but Valdez is highly likely to be a well above average starter.   

I agree.  They both have their pros & cons but both are very productive pitchers. Consistency matters and while WHIFF is fantastic, the emphasize on missing bats is a bit overblown.  From the article I posted in Best Pitches of 2023 thread….

“Sinkers differentiate from four-seamers in many ways. The most obvious is that the sinker’s value is tied towards generating low run value contact in the form of ground balls. An average four-seamer will likely outweigh a “good” sinker in its ability to generate whiffs, but it won’t necessarily outweigh it in its ability to negate runs.”

[Sports Guy]

Missing bats isn’t overblown. It’s arguably the single most important thing a pitcher can do.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy