Drafting the bats and trading for the arms

[Spy Fox]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The absolute best case scenario for Povich and McDermott would be promotions in 2025. We need to improve our starting rotation now, and yes the clock is ticking because I don't want to waste a single one of those years given the uncertainty surrounding the team's ability and willingness to lock up any of those players long term. 

Do you mean, the best case scenario for the Orioles would involve them debuting in 2025? Or the best case for them as individuals? 

Because, I think it's very possible we see McDermott and/or Povich in Baltimore and contributing at some point in 2024. Those scenarios involve some combo of these guys performing well in AAA (which would be great for both them and the O's), and injury or performance issues with the O's staff (which would be good for these guys, not for the O's). 

Knowing how many pitchers tend to get used in a season, I think both of them staying in AAA all year would be the more surprising outcome. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Spy Fox

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part. The best GMs and coaches are the ones who can think on their feet and adapt their game plan to better fit the situation and their players. Getting better faster is a good thing! Now it's up to Elias to adjust his game plan to take into account that we're an actual contender not an aspiring contender. If he chooses to stay the same course then I'm really going to start to question whether he has that ability.  And I'm not talking about compromising the future of the team. I'm looking for a well thought out/calculated trade for a young arm that can help us both in the short term and long term. I know the hypothetical Dylan Cease trade has gotten the majority of the attention, but a trade for one of the Mariner's young SPs (Woo or Miller) would be a much better fit for us in terms of not deviating that much from the original game plan. 

I don't understand why the Mariners would trade a pitcher out of their starting 5.    I think I read that Ray is not due back until mid season.   They just signed Mitch Graver to boost the offense.

[HakunaSakata]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't understand why the Mariners would trade a pitcher out of their starting 5.    I think I read that Ray is not due back until mid season.   They just signed Mitch Graver to boost the offense.

If you count Hancock they're six deep at SP, and that doesn't even count Ray. And have you looked at their projected 2B depth chart? It's pretty abysmal. I'd take any one of Miller, Woo or Ray. 

 

[HakunaSakata]

19 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you mean, the best case scenario for the Orioles would involve them debuting in 2025? Or the best case for them as individuals? 

Because, I think it's very possible we see McDermott and/or Povich in Baltimore and contributing at some point in 2024. Those scenarios involve some combo of these guys performing well in AAA (which would be great for both them and the O's), and injury or performance issues with the O's staff (which would be good for these guys, not for the O's). 

Knowing how many pitchers tend to get used in a season, I think both of them staying in AAA all year would be the more surprising outcome. 

Povich is coming off a season in which he had an ERA north of 5.00 and McDermott only has 8 total starts (50 IP) at AAA. And you think the most realistic scenario is that one or both of them pitches in the majors this season? I sure wish I shared your orang tinted optimism. I'm not even convinced that DL Hall is going to crack the starting rotation. 

[Spy Fox]

25 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Povich is coming off a season in which he had an ERA north of 5.00 and McDermott only has 8 total starts (50 IP) at AAA. And you think the most realistic scenario is that one or both of them pitches in the majors this season? I sure wish I shared your orang tinted optimism. I'm not even convinced that DL Hall is going to crack the starting rotation. 

It's less that I'm super high on McDermott/Povich, more that I just think the team will need them at some point. Last year the team used 28 pitchers, and that was with above average health at the MLB level. Would you place these two within the top 20-25 pitchers in the organization right now? I would. 

And I'm not referring to them becoming fixtures in the starting rotation-- if either ever does that, '25 or later is more likely. But '24 is a decently likely MLB debut year for both, especially McDermott since his performance has been better. It's at least within best case scenario range. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Spy Fox

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Povich is coming off a season in which he had an ERA north of 5.00 and McDermott only has 8 total starts (50 IP) at AAA. And you think the most realistic scenario is that one or both of them pitches in the majors this season? I sure wish I shared your orang tinted optimism. I'm not even convinced that DL Hall is going to crack the starting rotation. 

I think it’s likely that one or both will pitch in the majors this season.  We used 31 pitchers last year at one time or another.  These guys aren’t the 19th and 20th options beyond the 13 pitchers who will start the year on the major league roster.   

[Just Regular]

I hope Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich come to camp aiming to outpitch Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin.     They don't have any better chance of earning a full year of service time than Kyle Bradish in 2022 but they probably already have sufficient AAA experience if they are really going to become anything.     

Here are the AAA starts made by notable 2022-2023 MLB debut starting pitchers:

High: JP France 31, Kyle Bradish 23, Brandon Williamson 21, Logan Allen 19, Bryce Elder 18

Middle: Brayan Bello 11, Reese Olson 10, Gavin Williams 9, Graham Ashcraft 8, Bobby Miller 8, Andrew Abbott 7

Povich is now at 10, McDermott is at 8

Low: Tanner Bibee 3, George Kirby 1, Eury Perez 0, Bryce Miller 0

2022 Debuts overall - both Felix and Bradish are narrowly ahead of Kirby at career WAR - about 5.5 in all three cases.

I expect by May if performances warrant, both McDermott and Povich are full-fledged candidates for the Orioles rotation as everyone studies and/or showcases what they have going to July 31.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you mean, the best case scenario for the Orioles would involve them debuting in 2025? Or the best case for them as individuals? 

Because, I think it's very possible we see McDermott and/or Povich in Baltimore and contributing at some point in 2024. Those scenarios involve some combo of these guys performing well in AAA (which would be great for both them and the O's), and injury or performance issues with the O's staff (which would be good for these guys, not for the O's). 

Knowing how many pitchers tend to get used in a season, I think both of them staying in AAA all year would be the more surprising outcome. 

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s likely that one or both will pitch in the majors this season.  We used 31 pitchers last year at one time or another.  These guys aren’t the 19th and 20th options beyond the 13 pitchers who will start the year on the major league roster.   

The case you both seem to be making is that Orioles will "need" those pitchers to be ready in 2023 not that they "will" be ready. Therein lies the problem.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The case you both seem to be making is that Orioles will "need" those pitchers to be ready in 2023 not that they "will" be ready. Therein lies the problem.

No reason both of these things can't be true.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The case you both seem to be making is that Orioles will "need" those pitchers to be ready in 2023 not that they "will" be ready. Therein lies the problem.

They may or may not be ready by the time the O’s call on them.  I wouldn’t say they are ready right now, especially Povich.  Hopefully one or both of them comes into spring training having upped their game over the winter.   

@Just Regularmade a very good post above showing how many starts various pitchers made in AAA before debuting in the majors.  I think that supports the idea that these two are likely to debut in 2024.   
 

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

No reason both of these things can't be true.

Right. By mid season they will have both had a full year of AAA time. By that point it’s reasonable to think one of them will deserve a promotion. At least temporarily when a spot starter or swingman type reliever is needed in Baltimore, which is bound to happen. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not sure I agree with the bolded part. The best GMs and coaches are the ones who can think on their feet and adapt their game plan to better fit the situation and their players. Getting better faster is a good thing! Now it's up to Elias to adjust his game plan to take into account that we're an actual contender not an aspiring contender. If he chooses to stay the same course then I'm really going to start to question whether he has that ability.  And I'm not talking about compromising the future of the team. I'm looking for a well thought out/calculated trade for a young arm that can help us both in the short term and long term. I know the hypothetical Dylan Cease trade has gotten the majority of the attention, but a trade for one of the Mariner's young SPs (Woo or Miller) would be a much better fit for us in terms of not deviating that much from the original game plan. 

I could've maybe said it better.  But I think "our" expectations re. trades, spending, and signings have accelerated - a little unrealistically, as the rebuild has shown its fruits...

I agree with what you're saying.  Someone had a Schopenhauer quote earlier in this thread that said Elias and Co. is shooting for targets that we and others aren't aware of.  I think that actually makes a lot of sense.  I'm not sure big trades and big signings are a part of the plan right now.  There's probably a number of stat facts that we like to look at that when looked at with two or three others reveals something to them.  Going the whole small market, analytical approach coupled with a big splash here and there is not something I would rule out as an organizational approach going forward.  I just think that the bang for the buck level of trades or spending they might be willing to do now, as opposed to at the trade deadline or next season, hinges on where they perceive the upcoming farm talent to be.  We clearly want our guys coming up contributing to our team, so I think it's more likely that the guys they would replace would be traded.  We just can't do that now because the up and comings need some evaluation and time. 

And I think that goes back to the OP too.  There might be some prospects that we feel aren't where we want them to be that are still highly coveted and can be traded.  This is a really young organization at the farm level, but we need to see what we need first, I think is the mentality.  But to the OP's point, I do think that if we do trade it is from bats to acquire arms. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you count Hancock they're six deep at SP, and that doesn't even count Ray. And have you looked at their projected 2B depth chart? It's pretty abysmal. I'd take any one of Miller, Woo or Ray. 

 

Hancock has not pitched at AAA yet.  Sound like you don't want him.  I doubt the Mariners trust him enough to trade Miller or Woo.   Ray is not back until mid season and who knows how good he will be.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

The absolute best case scenario for Povich and McDermott would be promotions in 2025. We need to improve our starting rotation now, and yes the clock is ticking because I don't want to waste a single one of those years given the uncertainty surrounding the team's ability and willingness to lock up any of those players long term. 

Absolute best case?  They both pitched in AAA last year.  They will each likely get a cup of coffee this year.  If there weren’t 6+ pitchers in front of them they’d likely move faster.  We are in an enviable position to where we can do pretty much what we want and don’t need to do anything.  Would it be nice to get a pitcher, sure.  But if it costs us 18-24 years of service from 3 or 4 top 100 guys, I don’t  seen that happening.  Like you said, the teams inability (or desire) to lock up assets is a reason why they aren’t likely to give up 18-24 years of below market value production.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

The case you both seem to be making is that Orioles will "need" those pitchers to be ready in 2023 not that they "will" be ready. Therein lies the problem.

Elias said it himself.  Something to the tune of we are in a good spot to where we could but don’t  need to bring them up and can continue to develop them in AAA.