Spring Training Roster Locks, Near Locks, and Bubble (Position Players)

[ThisIsBirdland]

If Mateo is actually able to play the super utility role, including as an effective RH CF option, I think it opens up the roster configuration quite a bit if the O's don't have to carry McKenna. Here's a potential start distribution table with Holliday and Kjerstad both making the team, with O'Hearn and Urias both making the team as well. Total season starts for each player are listed in the bottom row:

However, I don't love this configuration because it leaves Hays as the only legitimate defensive LF, unless you rotate Mateo over there too (assuming he can handle it), and they're both RH hitters. I'd prefer to see Cowser make the team instead of O'Hearn in this instance:

Even beyond that, we could realistically fit consistent playing time for Mayo instead of Urias too, if we wanted to go all in on allowing the young talent to take a step forward this season. As a fan, this would be my favorite approach, but I imagine Hyde and the organization would want the veteran stability on the roster:

 

[rm5678]

4 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Vavra came up and had a few good games out of the gate in '22. After that he was pretty terrible, with no plus tools.

He has absolutely zero chance of making the roster.

I believe you're correct, especially considering that he's not even on the ST non-roster invite list.

[OriolesMagic83]

I hope Mateo can show he can play an acceptable CF this spring.  If Mateo is on the team, no reason he can't cover SS & CF, making McKenna and Hilliard expendable.

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, The B&G said:

My hope is that Kjerstad is the regular DH with some occasional RF mixed in when Santander needs a rest or DH day

Yeah are you trading O'Hearn because right now he is the regular DH with Adley and a bunch of regulars getting rest there.

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm starting to look at Vavra as under the radar potential competition for the platoon/backup 2B role as a left handed hitter. He can play the outfield too. He's had flashes during the 2022 season when he showed he could string together a chunk of games getting on base. There was a stretch he seemed pretty consistent at getting on base. But with Vavra, he's the type of guy that needs steady At Bats in order to produce. If you only play him sporadically with a PA here and there on rare occasions, he seems to struggle with the sporadic appearances.

This of course, all depends on what the team decides to do with Holliday for their long term plan.

[Safelykept]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I'm starting to look at Vavra as under the radar potential competition for the platoon/backup 2B role as a left handed hitter. He can play the outfield too. He's had flashes during the 2022 season when he showed he could string together a chunk of games getting on base. There was a stretch he seemed pretty consistent at getting on base. But with Vavra, he's the type of guy that needs steady At Bats in order to produce. If you only play him sporadically with a PA here and there on rare occasions, he seems to struggle with the sporadic appearances.

This of course, all depends on what the team decides to do with Holliday for their long term plan.

Nah with Cowser and Kjerstad both LH outfielders and Holliday LH infielder  , does not seem likely.  Decent OBP guy but does not do enough else ( speed, defense, power) If hes got a future in MLB its probably with someone else. Barring injuries strictly an ORG. depth piece. ( Stowers is the same boat)

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Nah with Cowser and Kjerstad both LH outfielders and Holliday LH infielder  , does not seem likely.  Decent OBP guy but does not do enough else ( speed, defense, power) If hes got a future in MLB its probably with someone else. Barring injuries strictly an ORG. depth piece. ( Stowers is the same boat)

If Vavra makes it, I'm thinking it would be just as a placeholder until Holliday is ready. Still a very long shot.

[Matt Bennett]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Vavra makes it, I'm thinking it would be just as a placeholder until Holliday is ready. Still a very long shot.

1. Vavra isn't on the 40-man roster.

2. Vavra isn't on the Spring Training Non-Roster Invitees list. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

1. Vavra isn't on the 40-man roster.

2. Vavra isn't on the Spring Training Non-Roster Invitees list. 

Good catch on the latter!  I’m a bit surprised.  I wonder if he’s still not 100% physically.  

[Yardball85]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

This was discussed somewhat on the Nevin thread but I thought it would be worth taking a look at the overall roster composition as we head into spring training. I see ten players set with two near locks, leaving only one bubble spot with five candidates. The main scenario that would jeopardize the near locks is for Holliday to make the team. The other would be Cowser having a huge spring enough to leapfrog Kjerstad. In that case, he would make the roster as a starter and Kjerstad would start in the minors, with the bubble picture staying the same. There is also the chance of a Urias or Mateo trade that we don't know about.

 

LOCKS (10):

1B/DH (2): Mountcastle, O'Hearn

OF (3): Mullins, Santander, Hays

IF (3): Gunnar, Urias, Westburg

C (2): Adley, McCann

 

NEAR LOCKS (2):

Kjerstad: Played well in limited opportunities, made the playoff roster. Should be able to take the 4th OF spot vacated by Hicks. 

Mateo: With Ortiz traded, Mateo becomes a bit closer to a lock due to his ability to back up SS.

 

BUBBLE (1):

Hilliard: Top defensive replacement option if we want the last guy to be an LHB. 

McKenna: Top defensive replacement option if we want the last guy to be a RHB. 

Norby: Top RHB PH/DH option and deserves an opportunity.

Cowser: Nothing left to prove in AAA, but he was terrible in MLB opportunity. Better off playing every day in AAA than sitting on the bench.

Vavra: Could be good all around option for LHB, IF/OF

 

WILD CARD:

Holliday. Number one prospect. We are slightly unbalanced toward RHB's so a lefty 2B would be a nice fit. Could push out Mateo, with Westburg taking the utility spot. I have to say, I really like the balance of the lineup with a lefty at 2B. 

 

CONCLUSION: Hilliard

With the current makeup of the team we have three SH's (Adley, Santander, and Mullins) and six RHB's (Hays, Mountcastle, Urias, Westberg, McCann, Mateo) versus three LHB's (Gunnar, O'Hearn, Kjerstad). For that last spot, appears we could use a LHB more so than a RHB and a defensive/utility type more than an everyday player type. So that leads me to favor Hilliard, with a slight chance of Vavra and Cowser. Daniel Johnson could be an extreme dark horse.

If Holliday makes it, then LHB would be less of a priority. In that case, stick with McKenna, with a slight chance of Norby. 

In no case do I see Tyler Nevin having a spot on the opening day roster.

 

 

 

Here's an article I wrote last week addressing the current state of the roster.  Fun time of the year for sure.

 

https://birdswatcher.com/posts/baltimore-orioles-2024-opening-day-roster-projection-1-0-01hnp14b0m12

[Matt Bennett]

18 hours ago, Low Country Bird said:

Doesn't your logic for Cowser also apply to Kjerstad?  Wouldn't he be better off playing every day in AAA than playing 2-3 times a week as a fourth OF in MLB?  

I'm not trying to pick on you, but I do think this style of thinking is a remnant of the rebuilding phase. We just won 101 games. The expectations are a repeat division title and a run at the World Series. The Orioles are the priority. 

We can twist ourselves into knots trying to come up with all the different lineup configurations and Opening Day roster combinations. I do agree that O'Hearn, Cowser, AND Kjerstad on the same roster is redundant and 1 shouldn't make it. But Hays, Santander, and Mullins aren't going anywhere. Cowser and Kjerstad's at-bats in 2024 will come as "4th outfielder", barring injury. That's fine. But taking the OP's 10 locks, and add...IDK Mateo, Cowser, and McKenna or Mateo, Kjerstad, and McKenna. There's plenty of at-bats for Kjerstad/Cowser to have. 

If they are as good as prospect evaluators say they are/can be, it is beneficial to the big league club for them to play every other day for the Orioles. It's beneficial to them as well. The team would prefer it and the player would prefer it too. 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A whole new thread just to say Nevin won’t make the team. Hhahahahahaha. This made my day. Thank you. Damn, I didn’t mean to scare people that much.

Why do people hate Nevin?  He’s sort of homegrown.  We didn’t draft him, but he spent parts of three seasons in our minor leagues. He’s supposedly a good clubhouse guy. Son of a MLB’er. Some say future coach. Elias has traded for him twice. Elias chose Nevin over Hicks. Not the other way around. Check the transaction log. .798 OPS vs LHP for his career. Can play the corners in the field. 

Why now does Nevin get the FB level Jorge Mateo hate?  

Um, I'm not sure anyone "hates him" I just think anyone who looks it his skills objectively does not see many non-injury related scenarios where it makes sense for him to be on a contending team's roster.

He can hit lefties a little bit, but with little power and he's sub par defensively no matter where you play him. He's like Benny Ayala with less pop. 

Perhaps he's a good, smart guy and a future coach, great. That will give him value in AAA which is where he is ticketed for barring a major disaster this spring. 

 

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, rm5678 said:

I believe you're correct, especially considering that he's not even on the ST non-roster invite list.

The lack of spring training invite definitely shows the organization has no role for him this year other than as an emergency backup, and even then he's behind several others.

The problem with Vavra is his only good tool is hit tool, and that's mostly his ability to have quality at bats and work counts. He's not a good second baseman and while I haven't seen him enough in the outfield, his statcast data suggests he's not very good out there either. I do think he's playable out there though.

But, without power or speed, what is he? 

I think he's basically Howie Clark and if he's lucky, he'll find an org that will given him some time. It would probably do him well to be released or traded by the Orioles because I just don't see a future for him with the Orioles. 

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good catch on the latter!  I’m a bit surprised.  I wonder if he’s still not 100% physically.  

It does make some sense if he's not, but honestly, what scenario would have him playing 2B for the Orioles this year? 

Westburg, Urias, Holliday are all in front of him and Mayo is too, with Westburg moving to 2B in that scenario. 

Plus, the Orioles clearly do not like his defense there.

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Um, I'm not sure anyone "hates him" I just think anyone who looks it his skills objectively does not see many non-injury related scenarios where it makes sense for him to be on a contending team's roster.

He can hit lefties a little bit, but with little power and he's sub par defensively no matter where you play him. He's like Benny Ayala with less pop. 

Perhaps he's a good, smart guy and a future coach, great. That will give him value in AAA which is where he is ticketed for barring a major disaster this spring. 

 

Agreed.  Let's say "dislike", and I'm not the President of the Nevin fan club.  However, as of right now he could be that Danny Valencia/Steve Pearce type role player for us.  We like to play the L/R matchups.  Nevin helps with that.  There's no need for a prospect to be on the bench in a 20% usage rate or less.  Nevin has a track record of hitting lefties well,

MLB - .798 OPS career in 113 PA

AAA 23' - .858 OPS in 76 PA

AAA 22' - .811 OPS in 62 PA