Following the intertwined career paths of Mullins, Hays and Santander

[Frobby]

In my opinion, the O's have been fortunate to have a stable outfield the last 3 seasons manned by Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander.  I was reflecting today on the fact that all three faced various struggles before becoming established major league players, how their careers have intertwined, and how we should think about that as we consider the future trajectories of Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and the other outfield prospects in our system.   All three players were acquired by the Orioles in 2015-16, so let's take it year-by-year and see how each player progressed.

2015

-Mullins was drafted in the 13th round out of Campbell Univerity.  Sent to the NY-Penn League, Mullins hit .264/.333/.376 in 68 games.

2016

- Promoted to low A, Mullins hit .273/.321/.464 in 124 games at Delmarva.

- Hays was drafted in the 3rd round out of Jacksonville University.  Sent to the NY-Penn League, Hays performed very well, hitting .336/.386/.514 but was shut down after 38 games with a leg injury.

- Santander was chosen by the O's in the December Rule 5 draft.  At the time, he was 21 and coming off a good year in the Carolina League (.862 OPS), but had undergone shoulder surgery anf figured to miss a chunk of the 2017 season.

2017

- Skipping Hi A Frederick entirely, Mullins was promoted to AA Bowie, and got off to a .367/.406/.683 start in 14 games before getting injured and missing six weeks.  When he returned in early June, he remained hot through the end of July despite missing another 18 games in July with another injury, maintaining a .925 OPS through the end of the month.   Then Mullins went ice cold the rest of the year, and ended up with a .265/.319/.460 line.  

- Hays rampaged through A+ and AA, hitting .328/.364/.592 at Frederick in the first half and then .330/.367/.554 in the second half  at Bowie.   He got a September call-up to the Orioles but struggled there, hitting .217/.238/.317 in 63 PA.   On the strength of that season, Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP.  He also was one of five finalists chosen for Minor League Player of the Year.

- Santander rehabbed his shoulder for much of the year, finally beginning a minor league rehab assigment on July 27.   That was the first time Mullins, Hays and Santander were ever togoether in the same lineup.  You'll find that the Baysox destroyed the New Hampshire Fisher Cats that day, 21-1, with Mullins, Hays and Santander all in the lineup and making big contributions.   Santander hit .380./458/.780 during a 15-day AA stint.  He got called to the majors on August 18 and played sparingly the rest of the year, earning 44 days of service while playing in 13 games, hitting .267.258/.367 in 13 games and 31 PA.

2018

- Mullins returned to Bowie at the beginning of the season, hitting .313/.362/.512 there in 49 games before a June 1 promotion to Norfolk, where he hit .269/.333/.438 in 60 games.   With the Orioles floundering through their 47-115 collapse and Adam Jones on his way out the door, the O's called up Mullins on August 10, and he remained with the big league club the rest of the year, hitting .235/.312/.359 in 45 games.   At that point, Mullins was the heir apparent as the starting CF for 2019.

- Sent back to Bowie despite dominating AA in 2017, Hays wasn't quite himself for the first two month of the season, then had to be shut down in late May after hitting a meager .224/.260/.374 in 43 games with an ankle injury that eventually required surgery after the season.   He was out of action until late July, then after a brief rehab stint in the NY-Penn League, was able to hit .273/.291/.535 over 23 games upon his return to Bowie.

- Needing to fulfill his 90 total days of service time requirement, Santander started the year in the majors, batting .198/.250/.297 in 33 games.   One he completed his Rule 5 requirement, the O's shipped him back to the minors immediately.   He struggled at Bowie (.258/.293/.402) over 54 games, had a month-long DL stint, and after a short time in the NY-Penn League, was promoted to Norfolk on August 24, hitting .182/.213/.386 there over the final 11 games of the season.

2019

- Given the starting CF job in Baltimore despite a very poor spring training, Mullins crapped the bed, hitting only .094/.181/.156 over 22 games. and he was demoted to Norfolk.   He struggled there as well, hitting so poorly there (.205/.272/.305) that he had to be further demoted to Bowie.  Mullins even struggled at that level for 15 games (.193/.277/.281), before finally righting the ship in late July, hitting .303/.367/.451 over his final 36 games, albeit at the AA level.

- Hays hit well in Spring Training but broke a finger late in camp sliding into 2B and was out about six weeks.   After a rehab stint in Frederick , he once again returned to Bowie and hit well enough there over 14 games (.268/.328/.518) to earn a promotion to Norfolk.  Unfortunately, he got hurt again after 10 games there and missed two weeks, requiring yet another NY-Penn League rehab stint.  Finally healthy, Hays played well over the final 7 weeks of the AAA season, earning his second call-up to the Orioles, where he opened some eyes by hitting .309/.373/.574 in 75 PA.

- Santander began the year in Norfolk, hitting .259/.311/.415 there through 48 games.   On June 7, he was called up to Baltimore, and got steady playing time the rest of the year, hitting .261/.297/.476 in 405 PA over 93 games.   From then on, Santander was a big leaguer, other than a MiL rehab stint in 2021.

2020

This year marked the first time that Mullins, Hays and Santander were all on the O's at the same time, though each had been in the majors at various times during 2017-19.   

- Given another crack at the majors, Mullins again started very slowly, posting an .077/.200/.077 slash line in his first 10 games.   But Mullins finally found his bearings in mid-August, hitting .291/.328/.441 in his final 38 contests.   You could say he has never looked back from that time.

- Hays made the Orioles roster but struggled for three weeks before sustaining a rib injury.  After missing about a month, he returned for the final 14 games and hit extremely well (.377/.404/.585).  On the year, he posted a .279/.328/.391 line in 134 PA.

- Santander got off to a great start in the COVID-shortened season, playing every game and hitting .261/.315/.575 through 37 games before sustaining an oblique injury that ended his season.  Despite his early exit, he was voted as the team MVP and earned a Gold Glove nomination.  He was worth 1.6 rWAR in less than 1/4 of a normal major league season.

2021

-Mullins came into camp and announced he had given up switch hitting and had been practicing hitting left-on-left all winter.   He got off to an amazing start, especially against lefties, earning an All-Star nod.  Mullins cooled off in the second half, but still had a 30 HR, 30 SB campaign, the first time an Oriole had done that.  Overall, in 675 PA he hit .291/.360/.518, good for a 137 OPS+, and had a 5.9 rWAR campaign, earning a Silver Slugger award.  He was the unanimous choice for Orioles' MVP.

- Hays made the Opening Day roster and played decently (.252/.319.455) until sustaining an injury that put him on the DL for about 3 weeks.   Fortunately, that would be his last IL trip to date.   He returned on June 11, struggled for a while, but hit .314/.373/.606 over his final 37 games.   On the year, he had enough PA (529) to qualify for the first time, and hit .256/.308/.471, 107 OPS+, and was worth 3.2 rWAR.  After the season, it was revealed that Hays had been playing with an abdomenal hernia since early May.

- Santander made the Opening Day roster, got off to a slow start, and had to go on the IL for a month in late April.   He played decently when he returned, but played all year as if he was still slightly hobbled by his injury.   He finished the year hitting .241/.286/.434 in 438 PA over 110 games, worth 0.3 rWAR.

2022 

- Mullins took a step back from his 2021 career year, but still managed a 3.3 rWAR campaign after hitting .258/.318/.403 (107 OPS+) and swiping a career-high 34 bags.   

- Avoiding the IL for the first time since 2017, Hays had an excellent first half of the season but slowed a bit in the second half.   On the year, he played in a career-high 145 games and had a career-high 582 PA, hitting .250/.306/.413, good for a 105 OPS + in what was a down year offensivley league-wide.   His performance was worth 2.2 rWAR.

- Healthy all year, Santander established new career high in games (152), PA (647), homers (33) and RBI (89), hitting .240/.318/.455 (120 OPS+), valued at 2.1 rWAR.   

2023

- Mullins had an injury-plagued season in which he had two IL stints and played in only 116 games.   The injuries were ill-timed, in that he was red-hot at the time of each injury (he had an .835 OPS as of his first injury, and was at .801 when he was injured again).  After his second return, Mullins was cold most of the rest of the year, hitting only .190/.232/.353 the rest of the way, finishing at .233/.305/.416 and a 101 OPS+, and earning 2.8 rWAR.   Still, he had some huge clutch moments down the stretch, and had a career high in RBI (74) despite missing a quarter of the season.

- Once again, Hays had an excellent first half of the season, earning his first All-Star nod and starting the All-Star game in CF after Mike Trout went down with an injury.  As in 2022, Hays cooled a lot in the second half but heated up a bit toward the end, finishing at .275/.325/.444, good for a 114 OPS+, the best full season he's had in that respect.  His defense was very good all year and earned him a Gold Glove nomination.  His season was worth 2.5 rWAR.   

- Santander had another healthy season, again setting career highs in games (153), PA (656) and RBI 95, while blasting 28 homers and batting .257/.325/.472 (121 OPS+).   

* * *

As you can see, each of Mullins, Hays and Santander did poorly in their first major league stints, and really it took each of them at least three years after their debuts to get fully established in the majors.   We've been fortunate to have a fairly stable outfield trio the last three seasons, with 2024 likely yielding a fourth.   And while it's nice to dream on Kjerstad, Cowser and other OF prospects, it's pretty likely that some of them will face similar obstacles and need to make adjustments just as Mullins, Hays and Santander all did.   If our young guys turn out to be as good or better than the current trio, that'll be great, but it may take some time for that to happen.   Meanwhile, I'll be rooting for our veteran guys to have one last good season together, seven years after they all played together in Bowie.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

Thanks for all the research @Frobby, yet another awesome thread.

None of our current outfield were highly thought of prior to being drafted. As you stated, Mullins was a 13th rounder out of Campbell, not a baseball powerhouse. Hayes was a 3rd rounder out of Jacksonville and Santander was signed by the Cleveland Indians as an international free agent in July 2011. 

Conversely, Heston Kjerstad (1.2) and Colton Cowser (1.5) are both very high draft picks with significant pedigrees. Additionally, Bradfield Jr. was also a first rounder (1.17) out of a very good SEC school. It makes me hope that the current crop of outfield prospects might be able to exceed what Mullins, Hayes and Santander have accomplished.

Edited February 13 by Jim'sKid26

[Aristotelian]

One difference, I don't think any of Hays, Santander, or Mullins were ever listed as MLB Top 100 type prospects. Mullins was a 13th rounder, Hays was a 3rd rounder. Kjerstad as 1:2, and Cowser 1:5 and they are currently listed as MLB #32 and #19, respectively. No guarantees but they have a different level of pedigree that isn't apples to apples with the current group.

[forphase1]

32 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

One difference, I don't think any of Hays, Santander, or Mullins were ever listed as MLB Top 100 type prospects. Mullins was a 13th rounder, Hays was a 3rd rounder. Kjerstad as 1:2, and Cowser 1:5 and they are currently listed as MLB #32 and #19, respectively. No guarantees but they have a different level of pedigree that isn't apples to apples with the current group.

Ummm...

- Hays rampaged through A+ and AA, hitting .328/.364/.592 at Frederick in the first half and then .330/.367/.554 in the second half  at Bowie.   He got a September call-up to the Orioles but struggled there, hitting .217/.238/.317 in 63 PA.   On the strength of that season, Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP.  He also was one of five finalists chosen for Minor League Player of the Year.

[forphase1]

Great thread, thanks.  One thing clear though is how Hays got the 'injury prone' moniker.  Geez, it seems every single year about him had something to do with being hurt, injured or shut down, at least until the past 2 years.  But from '16 to '21, each year had SOMETHING health wise.  

[sportsfan8703]

@Frobby with the OH Pulitzer. 

[Sydnor]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

One difference, I don't think any of Hays, Santander, or Mullins were ever listed as MLB Top 100 type prospects. Mullins was a 13th rounder, Hays was a 3rd rounder. Kjerstad as 1:2, and Cowser 1:5 and they are currently listed as MLB #32 and #19, respectively. No guarantees but they have a different level of pedigree that isn't apples to apples with the current group.

With respect to Hays, as @Frobby pointed out, Hays was a very highly rated prospect: Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP.

With respect to Santander, it’s hard to even gauge whether he could’ve become a highly ranked prospect because his development was so disrupted by being a Rule 5 pick who had to accrue sufficient service time to remain in the organization. If he stays in the Cleveland organization and on a normal developmental track and puts up similar numbers to what he did in the Carolina league, who knows what happens. When Santander was 24 he had spent too much time in the majors to be ranked on a prospect list.

I hope the upcoming outfielders are successful, but assuming they will better than the current group based on their pedigree is not an assumption I would make.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Ummm...

- Hays rampaged through A+ and AA, hitting .328/.364/.592 at Frederick in the first half and then .330/.367/.554 in the second half  at Bowie.   He got a September call-up to the Orioles but struggled there, hitting .217/.238/.317 in 63 PA.   On the strength of that season, Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP.  He also was one of five finalists chosen for Minor League Player of the Year.

Good correction but didn't he get a bunch of injuries after that? Where was he ranked when he came up for good? 

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

 

I hope the upcoming outfielders are successful, but assuming they will better than the current group based on their pedigree is not an assumption I would make.

I am definitely not assuming that. Also not assuming that they will struggle just because three other players who happened to be Orioles outfielders also struggled. My main takeaway is to have patience if they do struggle. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am definitely not assuming that. Also not assuming that they will struggle just because three other players who happened to be Orioles outfielders also struggled. My main takeaway is to have patience if they do struggle. 

It’s harder to have patience now that the team is good.  The years that our current trio struggled, the team was going nowhere regardless of their struggles.  That’s not true now.  

I generally agree that Kjerstad and Cowser have better pedigrees than the current trio, and I hope they turn out to be better and don’t struggle for as long.  But it’s not guaranteed.  

[Spy Fox]

I was glad the Hays/Mullins/Santander trio got to start a playoff series together. It's a shame it was a dud. Even if we make it, it's not a guarantee all three of them are healthy/here/starters this October. 

[TommyPickles]

2021 Mullins was so awesome.

(Fantastic post, btw)

I think you make a great point about how it took each of them a few years to establish themselves in the majors. People here can be a bit prospect-obsessed. Sometimes guys seem shocked or outraged at the idea that players like Hays or Urias could be getting regular ABs in 2024. But that's not crazy at all. You need a mix of experience and young talent. Not everyone is going to take off like a rocket once they reach the bigs. 

Edited February 14 by TommyPickles

[Just Regular]

Brandon Hyde will have some bones to make managing his outfielders.

Hays and Santander are good pros, and both have ~$50M guarantees in range, if not ~$100M like Cedric does.

But if Kjerstad and Cowser and Mayo are who Elias thought they were, they could well start straight outplaying the incumbents, even setting all $$$/WAR efficiency considerations aside.

We're facing Gerrit Cole in Game 1....who belongs?

Inevitably at some point a good Oriole inundated by the #RisingTide will work for some other good AL team.    The Baltimore Mike Elias, Toronto George Springer and Minnesota Carlos Correa teams haven't bothered Houston yet.    Santander, Hays and Mullins will come to market with AL East experience and hopefully also multiple division championships.

I like that these 3 guys have actually done what in fuzzy memory it seems like Anderson-Devereaux-Finley did.

Edited February 14 by Just Regular