Draft Prediction 2009

[hoosiers]

The BA Initial 09 Draft Preview arrived last week. Each year, with the arrival of this issue, I put out a guess as to the player the Os might draft in the first round from among several candidates outside the Os draft slot.

I've been doing this since drooling over the write-up and articles for Adam Loewen in 2002. I've made it respectable since Loewen - correctly predicting the under-rating of Chris Lubanski in 2003, Longoria in 2006, Vitters in 2007 and Hosmer in 2008. Each improved their standings from a slot or several outside of the Os draft position in BA's pre-draft ranking to well inside the Os selection. I jinxed Jordan Danks draft position in 2005 and can not recall my 2004 prediction, but I've been a respectable five for seven since the Loewen issue arrived seven years ago to kick off an unnatural and unhealthy interest in the MLB amateur draft.

As can be seen with my successful guesses, BA has appeared to consistently under-rate the top HS prospects at the beginning of the season, IMO, possibly due to more scouting and experience with the college names. While last year at this time there were four top prospects dominating the draft discussion (Beckham, Crow, Matusz and Alvarez), this year's class appears to have three strong candidates to go early at the top in Stephen Strasburg (a college RHP out of San Diego State considered on par with uber-prospect David Price of the Rays), Grant Green (college SS at USC) and Alex White (another college RHP out of UNC). Strasburg and Green are advised by Scott Boras so there is some possibility they could slip in this economy, but it's unlikely IMO.

There are a host of possibilities for the Os to consider at 5 with those three gone. BA lists Dustin Ackley (best pure college hitter at 1B who may be able to play CF as a pro), Donovan Tate (HS OF - son of Lars Tate former UGA running back) and Aaron Crow (RHP - last year's unsigned Nats pick) at 4, 5 and 6. Boras advises Ackley and Tate. Ackley is a strong prospect, IMO, and worthy of the pick by the Os. Tate is an exceptional athlete, but seems to lack the "pure hitter" label that I look for in these picks. IMO, descriptions regarding Tate's bat pale in comparison to what was written about Vitters, Hosmer and Moustakas. Crow has superior stuff, but I have a bad feeling about the recent track record of pitchers who sit out a year (Hochevar and Harrington) and how that might apply here.

Of course, it's also hard to handicap what prospects from deep in the field might advance. BA's HS "pure hitter" is Max Stassi (13th overall HS prospect) while there are several intriguiing "potential" SS guys in HSer Givens (out of Florida - 7th overall HSer), Jiovanni Mier (Cal -12th overall HS prospect) - all currently project as first rounders. BA also says the draft is deep in college middle infielders.

I will focus on BA's projected 7th, 8th and 9th rated prospects. Seven is Tyler Matzek - the most advanced HS pitching prospect. Matzek is a LHP, 6'3", 185. He has an advanced four pitch arsenal with a FB that sits 90-93 with strong command and quality curve, slider and change. Matzek has been compared to last year's Os first round pick Brian Matusz.

The 8th prospect is Matthew Purke - a RHP, 6'3", 180 - who brings a bit more heat than Matzek, but without Matzek's control and depth of secondary pitches. Purke has performed well in showcase events and makes for a quality option.

The ninth rated prospect is Kyle Gibson - college RHP out of Missouri who is 6'6", 195 per BA. Gibson has "solid fastball with nifty slider .... lots of projection". BA even uses "ultraprojectable". There seems to be some consensus that Gibson could add several MPH to his FB which normally sits 89-92 per BA if he gains weight as expected. Other descriptions of the slider on the internet include "absolutely wicked" though on-line criticisms claim Gibson can be slow to the plate and may have a lack of movement on his FB. There is some severe criticism of Gibson's delivery at drivelinemechanics.com (not sure of the reputation of this site). Gibson pitched effectively for Team USA and in the Cape league though most appearances so far in his college career have been from the bp.

So, who might the Os take? Joe Jordan appears to be a lean with quality college LHPs like Matusz, Garrett Olson and (the perceived interest in 07) in Detwiler with good command and quality secondary pitches - a description best filled by BA's 11th rated prospect - Andrew Oliver (Boras client) out of Oklahoma State - a state Joe Jordan has had some success with Tyler Henson and Bobby Bundy. In prior drafts, Jordan has selected HS pitchers no earlier than the third round - Erbe and Britton. Beato was a cc kid drafted in the supplemental first with a power FB and quality secondary stuff (supposedly). It's my uneducated opinion that our GM and owner have a healthy aversion to drafting a HS pitcher in the first round. And it's also my uneducated opinion that the Os are quite satisfied with last year's draft take - top college pitcher in the first, quality HS position prospects in rounds 2 and 3 and then shots at HS pitchers who slipped (Bundy, Brady, Martin, Landers and Beal) and would be likely to "repeat process" if they could.

For those who also prefer to avoid a HS pitcher, I will remind that ML teams have done an excellent job in recent drafts avoiding the Colt Griffins and Mark Rogers. In fact, top HS pitching prospects in very recent drafts like Clayton Kershaw, Jarrod Parker and Rick Porcello have maintained their lofty draft status as prospects. The Os have not had tremendous major league success with their own HS pitchers taken in the first round, but they have done a good job recently of shepherding their early HS pitchers taken (Bedard, Bergesen, James Johnson, Loewen, Erbe and Britton) successfully through (so far) through the minors since Rice and Stahl flamed out.

There is also the discussion of whether to go with a pitcher or a position prospect. Should the Os just continue to add to the strong crop of minor league pitching - perhaps another top college arm that can move quickly and arrive. Or should the focus be to try to balance the system with an impact bat? I'm sure most prefer the proverbial "best player available", but after the big three in this draft, it seems like there is little separation among the next six or so guys. I also must stress the importance of making the pick work regardless of who it is. I think it is more important to get someone who will definitely contribute than to take the chance the pick will not work at all. Among equal players, I would prefer to add a quality pitcher with our top pick in 2009.

A few other notes from the BA issue:

- not too much top draft talent rated in the Maryland/DC/Virginia area only Kevin Landry (80th college prospect) rates among the top 100 in either the HS or college list. The Os have had success drafting in the area with Erbe, Spoone, Hoes, Miclat, Drake and the recent attempted signing with Brady. Hopefully, there are some local kids flying under the radar.

- the BA issue also lists the top 50 college prospects by class. These lists are littered with unsigned Red Sox draftees. Many here are familiar with last year's HS pitchers that the Os could not sign - all falling from 37 to 46 - Brady, Martin and Landers. There are no unsigned Joe Jordan picks among the BA top 50 sophomores and juniors, but there is one senior - Jared Eskew - the 08 47th round pick. Finally, Tanner Scheppers, a draft pick from 2005, selected early in last year's draft but not signed, could emerge as a first rounder if healthy.

I've spent the past week trying to get excited about Kyle Gibson and expected to make him my pick when I began typing. If he can add the weight and velocity, make a few tweaks with a good pitching coach, Gibson has the potential to elevate his game considerably. After reading everything I am typing, however, I have decided to become a glutton for punishment and go against numerous red flags (at least in my mind) and put my three year streak on the line for ..... Tyler Matzek. I am swayed by the maturity, the quality secondary pitches and the command.

[JTrea81]

Boras advises Ackley and Tate? Ugh...

Looks like we'll take a pitcher then.

[mallison]

I've spent the past week trying to get excited about Kyle Gibson and expected to make him my pick when I began typing. If he can add the weight and velocity, make a few tweaks with a good pitching coach, Gibson has the potential to elevate his game considerably. After reading everything I am typing, however, I have decided to become a glutton for punishment and go against numerous red flags (at least in my mind) and put my three year streak on the line for ..... Tyler Matzek. I am swayed by the maturity, the quality secondary pitches and the command.

Excellent post... rep to you.

I do think that if Ackley gets to us at 5 we'll be tempted and might even take him, but I kinda have the feeling that he's going to hit .425 this year and be gone before we get a shot at him. I have also been trying get excited about Gibson and I just can't do it. I agree, I think that right now Matzek looks like my call as well.

[jamesenoch]

Boras advises Ackley and Tate? Ugh...

Looks like we'll take a pitcher then.

Boras advised Wieters, and although it was scary at the end, we all know the outcome to that one.

I don't think having Boras as an advisor is going to be a factor for the Orioles.

[jamesenoch]

Excellent post... rep to you.

I do think that if Ackley gets to us at 5 we'll be tempted and might even take him, but I kinda have the feeling that he's going to hit .425 this year and be gone before we get a shot at him. I have also been trying get excited about Gibson and I just can't do it. I agree, I think that right now Matzek looks like my call as well.

My gut feeling is that Strasburg, White, Green, and and Ackley are gone by the 5th pick and that the Orioles are going to select either Crow or Gibson.

One thing though.. I have a feeling that Boras and Strasburg are going ask for the moon ($20 to $30 million, maybe even higher). If that happens, I would not be surprised if he falls to us. I don't see any of the 4 teams ahead of us spending THAT much money on one draft pick. The question would be, if this impossible scenario plays out, would the Orioles FO let him slip by?

[allstar1579]

Nice work Hoosiers. It's funny though, I feel like they are stealing my work, I wrote the same stuff about Gibby MONTHS ago.

http://www.mlb-draft.com/Top-Prospects-2009.php

Good stuff though, we are on the same page. I am a big fan of Matzek too. I think the biggest problem with HS kids and why they are usually overlooked early is because a year in HS is like 3 years to a college prospect. A player can change so much from year to year it's frightening. Personal experience I went from not starting for JV my freshman year to starting Varsity my Sophmore year, these kids going from Junior year to Senior year are making light-years type jumps so trying to project them on their Junior year is usually futile at best. Matzek looks like a lock right now, but if he gets shelled a few times this season, he will drop out of the first altogether. It's so fluid with HS kids.

[Big Mac]

Boras advises Ackley and Tate? Ugh...

Looks like we'll take a pitcher then.

Matzek or Crow would be a much better pick than Ackely or Tate, IMO.

[allstar1579]

Matzek or Crow would be a much better pick than Ackely or Tate, IMO.

I think both would be better than Tate, but I think Ackley tops Crow and is probably on par with Matzek at this point, but Matzek is the riskier pick. Ask me again in about 60 days.

[wickedwitch]

Say no to Crow.

[Wingman]

I know our farm system is much richer in Pitching prospects which would push us to take a bat with our first pick (and we'll be even moreso after Wieters "graduates") this year. But I think that Matzek fill a huge need in our system right now in an area that is pretty weak... That being our lower minors. The strength of our system is in Frederick and above and I think Matzek would be a great value and fill a need for us at #5 this year.

[mark_beckens]

After reading everything I am typing, however, I have decided to become a glutton for punishment and go against numerous red flags (at least in my mind) and put my three year streak on the line for ..... Tyler Matzek. I am swayed by the maturity, the quality secondary pitches and the command.

If Green doesn't drop, he would be my pick also. With all the arms we have at AA and AAA it's time to start the next wave and Matzek would be a good start. I see either a college bat that can move quickly and be ready in a year or two or a HS SP who will be ready in 3-4 years.

[crawdad]

I know our farm system is much richer in Pitching prospects which would push us to take a bat with our first pick (and we'll be even moreso after Wieters "graduates") this year. But I think that Matzek fill a huge need in our system right now in an area that is pretty weak... That being our lower minors. The strength of our system is in Frederick and above and I think Matzek would be a great value and fill a need for us at #5 this year.

If you mean Rookie ball . . . sure we have not drafted anyone there, so it is pretty lean. Otherwise, we have guys like Bundy and Drake in the low minors. Matzek would be a great acquisition if he continues on his arc.

[Big Mac]

I think both would be better than Tate, but I think Ackley tops Crow and is probably on par with Matzek at this point, but Matzek is the riskier pick. Ask me again in about 60 days.

Yeah, I guess it just all depends on how you look at Ackley.

Personally, I'm not that high on Ackley as the #5 pick. If he can't handle CF, I'm just not sure if he is worthy of the #5 selection as a corner OF/1B.

You probably know much more about each of these guys than I do, but just from what I've read and heard, I'm not sure about Ackley at #5.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, I guess it just all depends on how you look at Ackley.

Personally, I'm not that high on Ackley as the #5 pick. If he can't handle CF, I'm just not sure if he is worthy of the #5 selection as a corner OF/1B.

You probably know much more about each of these guys than I do, but just from what I've read and heard, I'm not sure about Ackley at $5.

Don't get me wrong, I'm with you, I don't like Ackley that high if he can't play OF or 2B, but he really is the best bat in the draft. I personally knock him down a couple spots because I feel like you are drafting him without a set position, but everyday he is working to get back in the OF and has played a few innings there so far, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Give him about 20 games and lets see next month how he is doing, I bet a lot more people are raving about him by then. I wouldn't be surprised to see him rise above Green.

[Wingman]

If you mean Rookie ball . . . sure we have not drafted anyone there, so it is pretty lean. Otherwise, we have guys like Bundy and Drake in the low minors. Matzek would be a great acquisition if he continues on his arc.

What I was referring to was that last year only 4 of our top 20 prospects (and none in the top 10) played at Aberdeen or below. I think the biggest reason for this is the lack of dominican/carribean players our system has been producing over the last couple of years.