Jackson Holliday 2024

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

While you're not crazy for touching on the possibility of evaluator groupthink when it comes to Holliday, those evaluators drew those conclusions because his 2023 stats were really crazy considering it was his first full pro season.  And Gunnar certainly didn't look like a 12 WAR MLBer when he was a 21 year old prospect, and he was also a #1 overall prospect.  There was some concern with Gunnar because of his swing-and-miss (and to be fair it remains an issue) but he developed.  That's what prospects do.  You have to make some projections on whether they'll cover their current shortcomings.  A lot of people think a 20 year old with this kind of performance history in the high minors makes him the best prospect in MLB.  Obviously you disagree, and that's fine, but they didn't just come up with the prospect rankings by throwing darts on a dart board.

 

Regarding pitching, the only pitcher that I think might be available AND is worth Holliday is Logan Webb.  Otherwise you're looking at guys like Skenes and I don't expect pitchers like Skenes to be available even for Holliday.  Skubal only has 2 additional years of control left.  Miller's injury history scares me.  Luzardo looks bad this year.  I can't think of anyone else that's even close.

I wouldn’t trade Holliday for Webb. Some of his profile worries me enough not to do that.

But you touched on the Holliday stuff well. I saw an MLbTR chat today and someone suggested trading Holliday and the guy doing the chat was like, I’m amazed at how many Os fans want to trade Holliday because of a bad 36 PA stretch. 
 

People are acting like Holliday is a finished product. I really don’t feel people are grasping the concept of how old he is.

Of course, some of these are the same people who thought GRod was overrated judging by his early ML results, Cowser isn’t good and can’t play defense, Gunnar was overhyped, Kjerstad can’t catch the ball, etc…fans have become essentially twitter…in other words, it’s instant knee jerk reactions and have to get that thought out there as soon as possible.

I don’t have a problem with someone pointing out flaws. Banks has talked about his arm for a year. Others talk about being worried about the leg kick. I get it. But again, he’s 20. He should be a sophomore in college. Instead, he’s putting up numbers in pro ball that Adley didn’t approach until well into his college career. 
 

The Os love how advanced he is at his age. 
 

He will be fine. We will look back on this thread over time and laugh at some of the takes.

[OnlyOneOriole]

13 minutes ago, Hallas said:

While you're not crazy for touching on the possibility of evaluator groupthink when it comes to Holliday, those evaluators drew those conclusions because his 2023 stats were really crazy considering it was his first full pro season.  And Gunnar certainly didn't look like a 12 WAR MLBer when he was a 21 year old prospect, and he was also a #1 overall prospect.  There was some concern with Gunnar because of his swing-and-miss (and to be fair it remains an issue) but he developed.  That's what prospects do.  You have to make some projections on whether they'll cover their current shortcomings.  A lot of people think a 20 year old with this kind of performance history in the high minors makes him the best prospect in MLB.  Obviously you disagree, and that's fine, but they didn't just come up with the prospect rankings by throwing darts on a dart board.  The other prospects have either graduated or look worse than Holliday, or are way older.  His age is also significant and you keep dismissing it.  Most athletic skills don't peak until like 23 or 24.

 

Regarding pitching, the only pitcher that I think might be available AND is worth Holliday is Logan Webb.  Otherwise you're looking at guys like Skenes and I don't expect pitchers like Skenes to be available even for Holliday.  Skubal only has 2 additional years of control left.  Miller's injury history scares me.  Luzardo looks bad this year.  I can't think of anyone else that's even close.

All really good points.  The thing is it is very difficult to project a baseball player at age 18-21 to what he will do later in his career.

That is why when I see players with similar stats in the minors, I try to look for flash plays and elite plays.  Plays that normal guys don't make, even if they have good stats.

I saw that with Manny right away.  I saw it with Gunnar.  They just 'did things' that a player of normal athletic ability don't make.   I don't see JH flashing that way.

That doesn't mean he won't be a very good player.  I fully expect him to be a really good player.  Just imo he won't be an elite elite player. 

[Safelykept]

25 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

All really good points.  The thing is it is very difficult to project a baseball player at age 18-21 to what he will do later in his career.

That is why when I see players with similar stats in the minors, I try to look for flash plays and elite plays.  Plays that normal guys don't make, even if they have good stats.

I saw that with Manny right away.  I saw it with Gunnar.  They just 'did things' that a player of normal athletic ability don't make.   I don't see JH flashing that way.

That doesn't mean he won't be a very good player.  I fully expect him to be a really good player.  Just imo he won't be an elite elite player. 

Yeah you saw it with Manny and Gunner in their first week, I'm not even gonna touch on the couple weeks at ML level, even at MiLB never saw Elite Defense and hit tool was missing power, but it's still early

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

All really good points.  The thing is it is very difficult to project a baseball player at age 18-21 to what he will do later in his career.

That is why when I see players with similar stats in the minors, I try to look for flash plays and elite plays.  Plays that normal guys don't make, even if they have good stats.

I saw that with Manny right away.  I saw it with Gunnar.  They just 'did things' that a player of normal athletic ability don't make.   I don't see JH flashing that way.

That doesn't mean he won't be a very good player.  I fully expect him to be a really good player.  Just imo he won't be an elite elite player. 

But how much have you actually watched him play?  I've seen him do things that blow my mind.  He's incredibly fast, he's beaten out at least a half dozen balls I didn't think he had any chance at beating out.  He's hit some absolute moonshots to all fields LF, CF, RF.  He plays very high-level D.  He covers a ton of ground and can make all the throws.  Does he have the arm of Manny or Gunnar, no.  He's still learning, developing, and growing.  We are only seeing a very early version of what he will eventually be.   What he's accomplished at a young age is incredible and has only been done a handful of times in MLB history.  He's head and shoulders above every other player born in 2003.  That on its own merit makes him an elite player and to suggest otherwise is foolish.  

[OnlyOneOriole]

33 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

But how much have you actually watched him play?  I've seen him do things that blow my mind.  He's incredibly fast, he's beaten out at least a half dozen balls I didn't think he had any chance at beating out.  He's hit some absolute moonshots to all fields LF, CF, RF.  He plays very high-level D.  He covers a ton of ground and can make all the throws.  Does he have the arm of Manny or Gunnar, no.  He's still learning, developing, and growing.  We are only seeing a very early version of what he will eventually be.   What he's accomplished at a young age is incredible and has only been done a handful of times in MLB history.  He's head and shoulders above every other player born in 2003.  That on its own merit makes him an elite player and to suggest otherwise is foolish.  

I will admit that I have not watched a lot of his live  minor league games.   Just highlights.

[survivedc]

2 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I will admit that I have not watched a lot of his live  minor league games.   Just highlights.

One thing I’ve learned from watching a bunch of our top guys in the minors, especially in the last few years, is that they all seem to be playing at a different speed than other guys. They look different out there, more confident, do small things differently. Maybe it’s in taking a close pitch, or how they get a better angle on a grounder. It’s hard to explain, but being that you’re a top level former professional athlete I figure you get what I’m saying.

 

[OnlyOneOriole]

At this point I would be fine trading JH for Miller and someone like a Sears with the A's.

I think Miller is that good/elite/dominant and JH is that pretty ok. 

By the time Oakland is in Vegas?   Who knows what is happening with those guys while JH should be entering his prime.

Meanwhile Miller and Sears can help us win now and the next 2 years.

Edited Wednesday at 00:58 by OnlyOneOriole

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

At this point I would be fine trading JH for Miller and someone like a Sears with the A's.

I think Miller is that good/elite/dominant and JH is that pretty ok. 

By the time Oakland is in Vegas?   Who knows what is happening with those guys while JH should be entering his prime.

Meanwhile Miller and Sears can help us win now and the next 2 years.

What an awful idea. A guy with high arm injury potential who pitches 60ish innings a year and a guy who may be as good as Means.

Just terrible.

If you told teams Holliday was available, you would get WAY more than that.

Your poor evaluations of him and his value don’t equal what the sport feels about him.

Edited Wednesday at 01:10 by Sports Guy

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What an awful idea. A guy with high arm injury potential who pitches 60ish innings a year and a guy who may be as good as Means.

Just terrible.

If you told teams Holliday was available, you would get WAY more than that.

Your poor evaluations of him and his value don’t equal what the sport feels about him.

I really don't think you would get much more than what I proposed.   Don't look at 'potential'.  Look at current situations and what can you do for me now.  I could be wrong but.....

Mason Miller is posting Andrew Miller type numbers (in other words elite elite elite) while being way younger, way cheaper than him, and more controllable that Andrew Miller and....

JH has been injured this year and been terrible with the Os and just OK this year with AAA.

I see this as a pretty even trade.

Edited Wednesday at 01:15 by OnlyOneOriole

[Winter]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What an awful idea. A guy with high arm injury potential who pitches 60ish innings a year and a guy who may be as good as Means.

Just terrible.

If you told teams Holliday was available, you would get WAY more than that.

i think that is satire lol a RP and a fringe starter for the undisputed top prospect in the game. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Winter said:

i think that is satire lol a RP and a fringe starter for the undisputed top prospect in the game. 

No he actually thinks that’s good value.  It’s clear he just doesn’t understand.

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, Winter said:

i think that is satire lol a RP and a fringe starter for the undisputed top prospect in the game. 

One of the highest rated YOUNGEST, CHEAPEST, and controllable pitchers in MLB (in other words he is performing at the highest level).........compared to a guy who has never performed at the highest level and in fact was one of the worst players ever in his brief time here.

Miller can help us win a WS NOW.  Next year.  And the year after.

What is JH going to do during that time?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

But how much have you actually watched him play?  I've seen him do things that blow my mind.  He's incredibly fast, he's beaten out at least a half dozen balls I didn't think he had any chance at beating out.  He's hit some absolute moonshots to all fields LF, CF, RF.  He plays very high-level D.  He covers a ton of ground and can make all the throws.  Does he have the arm of Manny or Gunnar, no.  He's still learning, developing, and growing.  We are only seeing a very early version of what he will eventually be.   What he's accomplished at a young age is incredible and has only been done a handful of times in MLB history.  He's head and shoulders above every other player born in 2003.  That on its own merit makes him an elite player and to suggest otherwise is foolish.  

So you’re saying he’s elite for his age?   Going to be an elite ML player?  Right now he’s got issues and he’s not an elite AAA player.   I suspect he’s going to turn it around at some point but he’s got a ways to go.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

One of the highest rated YOUNGEST, CHEAPEST, and controllable pitchers in MLB (in other words he is performing at the highest level).........compared to a guy who has never performed at the highest level and in fact was one of the worst players ever in his brief time here.

Miller can help us win a WS NOW.  Next year.  And the year after.

What is JH going to do during that time?

Dude is 25 that's not worth ALL CAPS.

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No he actually thinks that’s good value.  It’s clear he just doesn’t understand.

As I said....so many of you guys are basing what you see with JH based on social media hype.  He has been very good as a young player.  I agree.   I don't see elite elite elite.   You are being fooled if you do. 

And I promise you that if JH did not have the last name HOLLIDAY?  In other words not his dads last name but lets say the last name of Jackson Blow?   He would not be as hyped.   Social media these days means a lot. 

I will equate this to Bronny James who just was drafted in the NBAs 2nd round and given a guaranteed contract despite never doing much of....anything.  In fact he averaged 4 points as a Frosh at USC lol.  Give me a break.  

Again...stop thinking of JH as this amazing super duper prospect and look at real life.  What have you seen him do that is so amazing compared to MIller? 

Miller is amazing.  Can help us win now and the next 2 years.

JH?  Is not going to help this year and probably next next as well.