Jackson Holliday 2024

[Il BuonO]

Holliday heads up a deal for Skubal. In or out?

[seak05]

On 7/13/2024 at 12:53 PM, banks703 said:

Not remotely accurate. Jorge maybe makes it an easier play but JH isn’t in the same neighborhood as either of Jorge or JW on defense and that play isn’t routine or “on” JW. 

This isn't a dig at you personally so please don’t take it personal but this might be my greatest pet peeves of this board. If we are going to make declarations about minor league players (especially when comparing them to major league All-Stars) can we please watch some of the minor league games to actually see the minor league player perform, to make an educated comment on said minor league player?  This is classic OH fodder.

Again, not digging at you personally but this is why the perception of our players and prospects is constantly out of line and why we as a fan base continually overvalue our minor league players. Most of the folks who post anecdotally about our guys on the farm have never actually seen them play and it’s quite frustrating to have to wade through these comments.

 

FYI Westburg has been worth -6 OAA at second base this year, while Holliday was +2 OAA while he was in Baltimore. Westburg has been much better defensively at 3b where he is +5

[banks703]

19 minutes ago, seak05 said:

FYI Westburg has been worth -6 OAA at second base this year, while Holliday was +2 OAA while he was in Baltimore. Westburg has been much better defensively at 3b where he is +5

And this is why I don't love OAA .. it also says that Jorge has been -1 at 2B, which, I can't see how that tracks because I've watched literally every game this year and Jorge has been superb with the glove at 2B. OAA suggests that Jorge is the 26th best defensive 2B in baseball. So, yeah.. not buying into OAA. 

 

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Holliday heads up a deal for Skubal. In or out?

1) I think Basallo works a little bit better for the Tigers timeline as their best position prospects are at single A.

2) I would probably rather trade Basallo as he probably has the least "natural" fit of all of our most talented players in the org. If Mayo is going to be a 1B where does Basallo play DH/back up C/back up 1B? 

3) We already have an excellent/elite offense as is (the last week withstanding). It will be even better adding two elite hitting prospects plus Kjerstad (if he stays). At that point my question is how much offense do you need than elite/potentially the best? But to get your hands on one of the best starters in the AL IMO is more complementary to our team needs/org talent set up.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Holliday heads up a deal for Skubal. In or out?

I'm pretty in honestly. I don't think Detroit would go for it though.

[Bemorewins]

35 minutes ago, banks703 said:

And this is why I don't love OAA .. it also says that Jorge has been -1 at 2B, which, I can't see how that tracks because I've watched literally every game this year and Jorge has been superb with the glove at 2B. OAA suggests that Jorge is the 26th best defensive 2B in baseball. So, yeah.. not buying into OAA. 

 

 

Westburg has been much better at 3B than at 2B this season. Even if you don't like to use the advanced metrics, look at his fielder percentage, errors compared to number of chances, his DWAR, etc. 

Nothing suggest that he has been good defensively at 2B this season.

I don't know if Holliday will ever be elite there defensively. But there is a very good chance that he won't be as bad as Westburg has been playing 2B this year.

[LGOrioles]

40 minutes ago, banks703 said:

And this is why I don't love OAA .. it also says that Jorge has been -1 at 2B, which, I can't see how that tracks because I've watched literally every game this year and Jorge has been superb with the glove at 2B. OAA suggests that Jorge is the 26th best defensive 2B in baseball. So, yeah.. not buying into OAA. 

 

 

That doesn’t seem like it tracks. UZR likes Mateo a lot better (4th in UZR/150 among 2B with at least 200 innings played). FWIW, UZR pegs Westburg about the same as OAA at 2B though, and his 3B metrics are aligned as well (both top 5). I think Westburg would improve at 2B if he plays more consistently there, but it’s pretty clear he’s better at 3B right now. 

Edited July 16 by LGOrioles

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I'm pretty in honestly. I don't think Detroit would go for it though.

They may not, who knows?

But if they wouldn't take Holliday or Basallo for Skubal, then they are the fools.

They are not competing this year with Skubal being Cy Young candidate amazing and they only have him for two years after this (if he manages to stay healthy).

What's more likely over that 2 year time period when you look at the dearth of hitting talent in their org - Them competing for an AL pennant with Skubal? Skubal getting hurt and his value plummeting? (This may be their best chance to stockpile an additional uber talented prospect. Remember tanking is no longer a strategy that can be deployed.) Or them receiving Holliday or Basallo in a trade and pairing them with Max Clarke, Jace Jung, Kevin McGonigle, and (potentially) Bryce Rainer to give them their strongest projectable offense/team in the future?

[Allan Bryant]

22 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

1) I think Basallo works a little bit better for the Tigers timeline as their best position prospects are at single A.

2) I would probably rather trade Basallo as he probably has the least "natural" fit of all of our most talented players in the org. If Mayo is going to be a 1B where does Basallo play DH/back up C/back up 1B? 

3) We already have an excellent/elite offense as is (the last week withstanding). It will be even better adding two elite hitting prospects plus Kjerstad (if he stays). At that point my question is how much offense do you need than elite/potentially the best? But to get your hands on one of the best starters in the AL IMO is more complementary to our team needs/org talent set up.

Nice analysis 

[banks703]

52 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Westburg has been much better at 3B than at 2B this season. Even if you don't like to use the advanced metrics, look at his fielder percentage, errors compared to number of chances, his DWAR, etc. 

Nothing suggest that he has been good defensively at 2B this season.

I don't know if Holliday will ever be elite there defensively. But there is a very good chance that he won't be as bad as Westburg has been playing 2B this year.

I'm not suggesting that JW hasn't been better at 3B this year. I'm simply stating that I don't love OAA (and for the record, I'm a strong advocate for the advanced stats. I just don't love OAA). OAA suggests that Jorge, who is playing GG level 2B this year, is a bottom 10% defender at 2B.... which is, uhhh, not the case. 

As far as comparing JH to JW... lol c'mon. I've been pretty outspoken about my feelings on Holliday as a defender. I'm the first person on this board that suggested he would end up at 2B (and still believe that OF is just as likely) and have gone into great detail on what I don't like about him as a Major League fielder, not just as a SS prospect. I've not been talking out of the side of my mouth about it. 

Holliday has played 38 games at 2B in Norfolk. Here are his stats:

334 Innings, 168 Chances, 66 Putouts, 92 Assists, 10 Errors and 24 DPs, .940 FP

JW's stats as a 2B in 40 games:

284.2 innings, 95 Chances, 30 Putouts, 62 Assists, 3 Errors and 5 DPs, .968 FP 

Suggesting that JH couldn't play as bad as JW at 2B this year is beyond ridiculous. We should hope that JH can play as well as JW has played at 2B this year. 

 

[banks703]

59 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

That doesn’t seem like it tracks. UZR likes Mateo a lot better (4th in UZR/150 among 2B with at least 200 innings played). FWIW, UZR pegs Westburg about the same as OAA at 2B though, and his 3B metrics are aligned as well (both top 5). I think Westburg would improve at 2B if he plays more consistently there, but it’s pretty clear he’s better at 3B right now. 

I'm not suggesting otherwise. I'm simply responding to the idea that JH would outplay JW as a 2B, which I think has less than a 1% chance of occurring. 

[EdwinRip]

22 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm not suggesting that JW hasn't been better at 3B this year. I'm simply stating that I don't love OAA (and for the record, I'm a strong advocate for the advanced stats. I just don't love OAA). OAA suggests that Jorge, who is playing GG level 2B this year, is a bottom 10% defender at 2B.... which is, uhhh, not the case. 

As far as comparing JH to JW... lol c'mon. I've been pretty outspoken about my feelings on Holliday as a defender. I'm the first person on this board that suggested he would end up at 2B (and still believe that OF is just as likely) and have gone into great detail on what I don't like about him as a Major League fielder, not just as a SS prospect. I've not been talking out of the side of my mouth about it. 

Holliday has played 38 games at 2B in Norfolk. Here are his stats:

334 Innings, 168 Chances, 66 Putouts, 92 Assists, 10 Errors and 24 DPs, .940 FP

JW's stats as a 2B in 40 games:

284.2 innings, 95 Chances, 30 Putouts, 62 Assists, 3 Errors and 5 DPs, .968 FP 

Suggesting that JH couldn't play as bad as JW at 2B this year is beyond ridiculous. We should hope that JH can play as well as JW has played at 2B this year. 

 

Don’t those stats prove the point that Holliday’s range is superior?

[LGOrioles]

33 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm not suggesting otherwise. I'm simply responding to the idea that JH would outplay JW as a 2B, which I think has less than a 1% chance of occurring. 

Yeah I think there’s a pretty good chance he would outplay Westburg, I’m not sure about Mateo though. 

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

And this is why I don't love OAA .. it also says that Jorge has been -1 at 2B, which, I can't see how that tracks because I've watched literally every game this year and Jorge has been superb with the glove at 2B. OAA suggests that Jorge is the 26th best defensive 2B in baseball. So, yeah.. not buying into OAA. 

 

 

If you watched every game you would have noticed that Jorge struggles to turn a double play, bad footwork and not great throws

[banks703]

53 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Don’t those stats prove the point that Holliday’s range is superior?