Jackson Holliday 2024

[Just Regular]

What did the integration periods for liftoff end up being in Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser's cases?    300-ish PA is how it feels.

Maybe some of the root of it is the old Cardinals techniques to help bats stay afloat immediately aren't as effective as they used to be.    Checking all the boxes of your AAA competencies might not mean as much as it used to.

'24 Jackson Holliday feels ballpark similar to me to '23 Grayson Rodriguez - he doesn't have to be as green as he is now.

A below replacement run is easier to eat in June.

Big picture, I'm still excited to see Mayo and Holliday for 600 PA next year as I believe will and should happen.    Elias turned the dial on trading this year.    Next year can we get Samuel Basallo 529 instead of 129 AB's?    Yes, he might suck for 300 some.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has a 3 OAA.  He is 10000% the starting second baseman on day 1 next year…unless he’s hurt or traded.

He’s -3 Rtot and -2 Rdrs, and I humbly submit that anyone who believes OAA in this instance isn’t paying very careful attention when watching the games.   

But fine, if you want to hand a job to a 21-year old kid who has had a .530 OPS in 173 PA this year and isn’t a very good fielder, you go right ahead.  In my world, he has to earn it.  He has to show he’s ready to play better than he did in 2024.   I don’t give a damn that he’s been the no. 1 prospect and has a lot of talent.  
 

[interloper]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I know there are some that scoff at any concerns over Holliday, but what can't be argued with any sanity, is that Holliday's major league time this year and is anything but an unmitigated disaster so far. 

While he does not qualify, his statcast leaderboards shows him only to stand out on speed. Now the good news is his hard hit% and barrel percentage is above average, but his whiff% is so bad, he's basically missing or hitting ball fairly hard. That's what comes with the big upper cut swing he employs. His timing must be perfect because the bat is not in the hitting zone for that long.

How bad has Holliday been at the plate? Well, let's take away that 10-game span when he first game back when he hit 5 home runs. You know, when some posters around here were taking victory laps and virtually high fiving themselves on how smart they are and how Holliday should have never been sent to the minors anyways because he had nothing else to learn.

During that 10 game span, Holliday slashed .278/.350/.722/1.072 with 10 Ks and 3 BB in 40 PAs.

Outside of that initial hot streak upon return, Holliday has gone 19-for-128 (.148) with 7 BB and 50Ks, with 2 doubles and 2 triples and 0 home runs in 140 PAs in his big league time.

But heck, let's be fair and add in his ten game hot streak and let's compare Holliday's first 177 PAs with other notable young players who made their debuts at 20.

Obviously the ones that stands out is Jackson Chourio, the presumptive 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. Chourio had a similar start with the bat, and then went on to slash .310/.368/.541/.909 over his next 323 PAs. I don't have any way of looking back at Chourio's statcast numbers at that 176 PA mark, but his numbers now look much better than Holliday.

Cal had a similar slow start, but with much less whiff (In a much different era) but both Gunnar and Witt Jr. clearly had outclassed Holliday at the start of their careers.

So all is not lost. Holliday has talent and while he's struggled mightily through his initial trial through the majors, Chourio should give Orioles fans hope a turn around might not be that far away. 

 

If Urias and Westburg make it back, I don't see Holliday getting any starts in playoff games. They might keep him around on the bench for an emergency since he can technically play some SS, but otherwise, why would you run him out there?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s -3 Rtot and -2 Rdrs, and I humbly submit that anyone who believes OAA in this instance isn’t paying very careful attention when watching the games.   

But fine, if you want to hand a job to a 21-year old kid who has had a .530 OPS in 173 PA this year and isn’t a very good fielder, you go right ahead.  In my world, he has to earn it.  He has to show he’s ready to play better than he did in 2024.   I don’t give a damn that he’s been the no. 1 prospect and has a lot of talent.  
 

You don’t live in the world of realism. The Os are 100% giving him the job.  It’s not even a topic we should waste our time discussing until he is 1-34 next spring and looks awful and then you can discuss it.

You sometimes get “agitated” at discussions on here because they are premature or too early or whatever.  Well, this is even worse than those.

 

[Just Regular]

Wasn't Nick Maton actually something like 1-for-34 this spring?

I'd feel a little less worse about the play if he would have thrown.

Brown immediately commented there was still time.    Lots of batters are slow out of the box at this late date of the grind.

Panic freeze?   Weak situational awareness?   Lack of confidence in the arm under the gun?    They're all bad.

[turtlebowl]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I pointed out the other day that Chuorio had a bad first 200 at bats. That said, his OPS was 610ish. That’s not good but it’s still 60-70 points higher than Holliday.  Holliday is 20-25 at bats short of that number.

We know that it’s harder right now to transition from AAA to the majors than we have ever seen. 
 

Now, with that said, there is bad and then there is what we have seen with Holliday and Mayo. It’s fair to ask why and does the org prepare them well enough. We see these guys putting up big numbers, showing patience, high EV, etc…all signs you want to see. 
 

I see hitters constantly guessing. Why? It’s one thing to see it every once in a while but we are seeing it all the time, throughout the lineup. Is this something the data is saying?  Is the data telling them to look for pitch X?  Is the data faulty?  
 

I don’t know where it stands now but the Os were near the bottom of the league in terms of balls being called strikes when hitting. Everyone deals with this but when you are a team that is seemingly getting picked on (they aren’t, just feels that way) and you are constantly down in the count and you don’t know what a strike is, you wonder how much that is effecting them. 
 

I see young guys who are struggling to adjust to off speed stuff (to be expected) and expanding the zone too much. There is no cutting down on the swing. There isn’t enough using all fields. It’s all big swings for the fences. Why? Is that being taught?  

What I see is guys coming up from the minors that are trained to work on the count and then once you get ahead, hunt a pitch and get your "A" swing off.  Once you make that jump to the show, getting ahead in the count doesn't happen as much by just being patient.  Also, even when you do happen to get ahead it doesn't mean you are going to get a cookie to hit.  

So these swings being taught that are focused on creating launch angle and swinging max effort just aren't translating.  That then snowballs because these guys are young and now are fighting confidence along with a swing that isn't translating very well.  To me this is the most obvious issues I see with these guys.  

The funny thing is I had concerns with Westburg being able to hit at the MLB level and he truthfully had one of the smoother transitions and a progression that you would like to see in a young talent.  His swing is just so much flatter through the zone than everyone except maybe Gunner and that is why he transitioned to the MLB level much easier.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

What I see is guys coming up from the minors that are trained to work on the count and then once you get ahead, hunt a pitch and get your "A" swing off.  Once you make that jump to the show, getting ahead in the count doesn't happen as much by just being patient.  Also, even when you do happen to get ahead it doesn't mean you are going to get a cookie to hit.  

So these swings being taught that are focused on creating launch angle and swinging max effort just aren't translating.  That then snowballs because these guys are young and now are fighting confidence along with a swing that isn't translating very well.  To me this is the most obvious issues I see with these guys.  

The funny thing is I had concerns with Westburg being able to hit at the MLB level and he truthfully had one of the smoother transitions and a progression that you would like to see in a young talent.  His swing is just so much flatter through the zone than everyone except maybe Gunner and that is why he transitioned to the MLB level much easier.

Particularly when the average called strike zone is larger than the strike zone they saw in the minors.

[sevastras]

I will say much of his success in the minors came when he was slashing the ball to the opposite field and then doing damage when the opportunity was there, much like when Mountcastle is on a roll. If my memory serves me, that is also what got Gunnar rolling.  
Watching the game last night, there was definitely some guessing going on with several players and two strikes. 

[turtlebowl]

15 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I will say much of his success in the minors came when he was slashing the ball to the opposite field and then doing damage when the opportunity was there, much like when Mountcastle is on a roll. If my memory serves me, that is also what got Gunnar rolling.  
Watching the game last night, there was definitely some guessing going on with several players and two strikes. 

I am really starting to question the hitting philosophies that are being taught.  To me they seem to have this cookie cutter mentality that isn't going to work with everyone.

2 examples are Holiday and Cowser.  From my understanding is they both were drafted due to elite bat to ball skills.  Now Cowser is having a decent season but the emphasis on power has him completely lost against off speed pitches.  I see similar traits with Holiday but even worse he is guessing so much in regards to an off speed pitch coming, he will lock up and not swing at a middle middle fastball.  The point is not everyone is designed to be a 30 plus HR guy but if that is the emphasis they may end up sacrificing their best tool.  

On the opposite end it appeared al season that Mountcastle has emphasized not pulling the ball so he could hopefully cover low and away sliders.  That has always been his biggest kryptonite.  But what happened is you had a guy this season that has become a little better hitter but has mostly lost his best tool which is crushing balls middle in. Those are the balls that he would destroy earlier in his career.

I have always believed that whatever that player is good at, you develop that skill to the highest level.  Then the hope is with some hard work that the weaknesses will become less of an issue.  So a guy like Cowser just on his own development path learns to turn on a pitch in a certain count which helps his power numbers but didn't sacrifice his bat to ball skills.  And Mountcastle continues to look to turn and burn but with more experience would learn to lay off those sliders off the plate.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just rub the lamp, @Tony-OH!

League average with two strikes: .168/.244/.265 

Orioles hitters with two strikes: .174/.252/.301 (10th/11th/2nd in MLB; .552 OPS is 3rd).

Orioles pitchers with two strikes: .173/.247/.265 (21st/19th/13th best in MLB; .512 OPS is 16th best).

So, our hitters are a bit better than average at two-strike hitting, especially at slugging.  Our pitchers are a slightly worse than average at allowing hits but pretty decent at limiting power with two strikes, and overall about average.   

Now mind you, our hitters are above average in all situations combined (.250/.317/.438 vs. .244/.312/.400) and our pitchers are, too (.239/.304/.391 vs. .244/.312/.400).   Looks like the O’s overall hitting advantage compared to league average is about the same as their two-strike hitting advantage compared to league average, whereas the O’s pitchers’ overall numbers are better compared to league average than their two-strike numbers are.

 

Interesting stats, thanks. I was wondering whether recency or familiarity bias was part of the perception, and it appears that it is to some extent. 

Obviously really poor at bat, fielding plays, and pitches stick in our minds a bit more, especially due to the Orioles struggles for more than a half season now. 

How are they overall with RISP? I'm sure they keep this somewhere in baseball references, but do they have stats for stranding runners in scoring positions with less than two outs? Like the percentage of RISP stranded by the team? 

I mean you don't have to do the homework if you don't want, but it would be interesting to know how they stack up there or if we just have more bias because they stand out to us as fans. 

Also, are these numbers across the season or can you break them down like 1st half and 2nd half. 

I may be off, but I'm guessing our two-strike hitting was much better over that hot start to the season than now.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

If Urias and Westburg make it back, I don't see Holliday getting any starts in playoff games. They might keep him around on the bench for an emergency since he can technically play some SS, but otherwise, why would you run him out there?

I would not if he's still playing the way he's been playing, but who know what the Orioles will do.

[LookitsPuck]

Call me crazy, but up until that play last night, I thought Holliday was looking better and better at 2B. And I'm pretty confident he can be an above average 2B in the future once he has this year under him. Either way, I get it, compare him to other 20-21 year olds, and he hasn't been nearly as impactful aside from a couple week stretch there. And right now he is clearly struggling with the bat.

But I do agree, if/when Urias and Westy come back, you need steady hands/gloves around the diamond. There's still the issue of O'Hearn playing 1B, but maybe you shore that up and platoon O'Hearn and Rivera there unless Mounty gets healthy. 

This club is playing down its entire starting INF aside from Gunnar, so I don't think it's a coincidence that Gunnar has had the yips in the second half of the year...he's trying to make plays and overthinks things...and well, Bob's your uncle.

The thing is about Holliday is similar to Mayo. While Holliday is a much better defender than Mayo, they both are hurting you with the bat. So once Urias and Westy are back and healthy, you go with guys with the higher floor. And that's Urias and Westy. 

[Too Tall]

Re Oriole hitting, I've heard terms like "professional at bats," situational hitting," working the pitcher." Even when we had Monty, Urias, and Westy, we did't have anyone close to a 300 hitter. Hyde would point out games when he thought we took "professional at bats." All to often though, it was homerun or bust. That carried through the first half - before injuries and slumps.

I'm not sure what I see in Holliday. Lot of hype - yes - but still waiting for translation. He's 20 I keep telling myself. It's early I keep telling myself. But, Holliday has a lot of work to do. I hope the hype isn't in his head because he really does have a lot of work to do. 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Re Oriole hitting, I've heard terms like "professional at bats," situational hitting," working the pitcher." Even when we had Monty, Urias, and Westy, we did't have anyone close to a 300 hitter. Hyde would point out games when he thought we took "professional at bats." All to often though, it was homerun or bust. That carried through the first half - before injuries and slumps.

I'm not sure what I see in Holliday. Lot of hype - yes - but still waiting for translation. He's 20 I keep telling myself. It's early I keep telling myself. But, Holliday has a lot of work to do. I hope the hype isn't in his head because he really does have a lot of work to do. 

You need to get over the whole idea of a .300 hitter.

Do you know how many qualifying hitters are hitting .300 this season? 

Spoiler

Seven

Do you know how many they had in 2023?

Spoiler

Nine

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, turtlebowl said:

What I see is guys coming up from the minors that are trained to work on the count and then once you get ahead, hunt a pitch and get your "A" swing off.  Once you make that jump to the show, getting ahead in the count doesn't happen as much by just being patient.  Also, even when you do happen to get ahead it doesn't mean you are going to get a cookie to hit.  

So these swings being taught that are focused on creating launch angle and swinging max effort just aren't translating.  That then snowballs because these guys are young and now are fighting confidence along with a swing that isn't translating very well.  To me this is the most obvious issues I see with these guys.  

The funny thing is I had concerns with Westburg being able to hit at the MLB level and he truthfully had one of the smoother transitions and a progression that you would like to see in a young talent.  His swing is just so much flatter through the zone than everyone except maybe Gunner and that is why he transitioned to the MLB level much easier.

 

36 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I am really starting to question the hitting philosophies that are being taught.  To me they seem to have this cookie cutter mentality that isn't going to work with everyone.

2 examples are Holiday and Cowser.  From my understanding is they both were drafted due to elite bat to ball skills.  Now Cowser is having a decent season but the emphasis on power has him completely lost against off speed pitches.  I see similar traits with Holiday but even worse he is guessing so much in regards to an off speed pitch coming, he will lock up and not swing at a middle middle fastball.  The point is not everyone is designed to be a 30 plus HR guy but if that is the emphasis they may end up sacrificing their best tool.  

On the opposite end it appeared al season that Mountcastle has emphasized not pulling the ball so he could hopefully cover low and away sliders.  That has always been his biggest kryptonite.  But what happened is you had a guy this season that has become a little better hitter but has mostly lost his best tool which is crushing balls middle in. Those are the balls that he would destroy earlier in his career.

I have always believed that whatever that player is good at, you develop that skill to the highest level.  Then the hope is with some hard work that the weaknesses will become less of an issue.  So a guy like Cowser just on his own development path learns to turn on a pitch in a certain count which helps his power numbers but didn't sacrifice his bat to ball skills.  And Mountcastle continues to look to turn and burn but with more experience would learn to lay off those sliders off the plate.  

I agree a lot of what you are saying here. 

I've been talking about the Orioles hitting development and every time I do, I get shouted down by the people who point towards Adley, Henderson, Westburg and Cowser to a lesser extent. To me, these guys are more about good drafting than amazing development. 

Saying that, I've seen a change in the Orioles hitting philosophy from a "make good swing decisions" approach to a "upper cut, do damage approach" and this is a apparent throughout the minor league where the Orioles hitting prospects have not exactly torn up the minors and of course with this major league team.

When Elias took over, they stressed only swinging at pitches you can put a good swing on and I saw guys like Adley, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday drive the ball to all fields. This season, it just seems like everyone is guess hitting. I've seen more awful swings this season than I can remember and it just seems like they are hunting certain pitches and swinging from their heels, regardless of the situation.

I have zero issues with doing that early in counts, but the approach needs to change with the situation. In other words, batting in a 0-0 game in the 2nd inning may have a different approach then batting in a 0-0 game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 7th inning. I don't see much change. I see guys with some huge upper cut swings. Heck, even Gunnar has been gotten beat with up and in heat because of his sometimes upper cut swing. Gunnar though flattens out his swing and will take what he's given.

Personally, I thin they need to get rid of the entire hitting philosophy and get back to a more balanced approach. 

We thought we were going to get guys who worked counts, fouled balls off, and just put up professional at bats, instead the Orioles have turned into swing from the heal mashers who K or hit the ball hard. I don't know what study told the Orioles to change, but somebody needs to get more data points.