2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

[Say O!]

44 minutes ago, TheWall said:

Hate to break it to you, but I'm pretty confident that Hyde and Elias are on the same page the vast majority of the time. 

Right. In fact Elias crew/Sig hands Hyde the lineup daily.

[spleen1015]

3 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Right. In fact Elias crew/Sig hands Hyde the lineup daily.

Pretty sure that's not true. There was an interview sometime last year where I believe ME said all of the input is given to Hyde and he makes the lineup. 

[ChuckS]

42 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

If he's the '4th outfielder' then if one of the other 3 are no performing/hurt/need a rest, it figures that Cowser is the likely replacement, no?

No, I don't think it's that linear and I think there is a slim to none chance that Hays moves out of an everyday role. 

I think Cowser's playing time is tied more to the DH slot and the potential for a better defense with Cowser in right and Santander at DH.  That's O'Hearn and to a lesser extent Mountcastle. 

Injuries to the OF would of course open things up for Cowser, but if we are talking about reducing someone's playing time I think O'Hearn is the most likely if he underperforms in the first half. 

Edited April 1 by ChuckS

[ChuckS]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cowser is likely only getting AB against RHP in the early going.  They are probably going to play Mullins, Santander, and O’Hearn against virtually every RHP.   Mountcastle and Hays are regulars but if they are rested once a week, it would be against a RHP.  So Cowser might get 2 starts a week, at most.   Anything more than that is tied into getting more of Hays AB or Mountcastle AB against RHP.   Cowser needs a bad slump or injury to either one of those two to get a bigger role.  I just think Hays is his best chance on both counts.

This may be correct.  But if we are talking about the path to increase playing time, it's tied more to O'Hearn (as I've previously stated).  Mountcastle or Hays sitting could just as easily result in Mateo being moved into the lineup or an Adley DH day.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

If it wasn't already apparent, this is verbal evidence that Cowser is a fourth OF until further notice and probably the 25th guy on the roster (Kemp being 26).  Not a platoon guy, not a 3-4 game a week starter.  

Expect him to start 1-2 times a week tops until there is an injury to an outfielder, Mountcastle, or O'Hearn.  

Maybe this will reduce the number of daily lineup complaints, as the matter has been settled by the guy making the lineups. 

I agree. I don't agree with it, but I guess it is what it is. Cowser is the new Stowers on how he will be played. We just have to accept that SIGBOT's computer hates rookies and does understand how to rotate guys to keep them fresh. It's one of the weaknesses of having a computer make it out your "perfect" lineup because it doesn't factor in the human element of guys getting cold by not playing. 

It's a little frustrating as a fan, but as I've always said, the proof is in the results and the Orioles did win 101 games last year after burying Stowers and Cowser (at times) last year.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

This may be correct.  But if we are talking about the path to increase playing time, it's tied more to O'Hearn (as I've previously stated).  Mountcastle or Hays sitting could just as easily result in Mateo being moved into the lineup or an Adley DH day.  

Mateo would have to be hitting like April 23 Mateo, to get an OF start against a RHP before Cowser.  Right now, Cowser is likely to get starts when Hays and/or Mouncastle sit against a RHP.   He has a .001 % chance of starting in place of Ryan O’Hearn against a RHP.   Future opportunities could be  tied to O’Hearn.   I suppose there’s a greater chance of O’Hearn underperforming and getting less rope than Hays.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

No, I don't think it's that linear and I think there is a slim to none chance that Hays moves out of an everyday role. 

I think Cowser's playing time is tied more to the DH slot and the potential for a better defense with Cowser in right and Santander at DH.  That's O'Hearn and to a lesser extent Mountcastle. 

Injuries to the OF would of course open things up for Cowser, but if we are talking about reducing someone's playing time I think O'Hearn is the most likely if he underperforms in the first half. 

Giving each of Hays, Santander, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle off one day every 5 games is exactly how you are able to get Cowser decent PAs. the fact that SIGBOT's computer doesn't understand that is a bit mind boggling, but I guess understanding that young players need to play to stay sharp is probably hard to account for.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Giving each of Hays, Santander, O'Hearn, and Mountcastle off one day every 5 games is exactly how you are able to get Cowser decent PAs. the fact that SIGBOT's computer doesn't understand that is a bit mind boggling, but I guess understanding that young players need to play to stay sharp is probably hard to account for.

Heck throw in Mullins and give everyoff one every 6 games and everyone is fresh and Cowser doesn't get cold rotting on the bench. 

 

[Say O!]

31 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Pretty sure that's not true. There was an interview sometime last year where I believe ME said all of the input is given to Hyde and he makes the lineup. 

Do you have source?  I thought there was podcast interview with Eve last year where she said they give Hyde the suggested daily lineup (I’ll try to find it).  At any rate I think we are getting into semantics here, the meta point being the FO has heavy participation in the daily lineup setting process, more so than other teams.  So fans on OH shouldn’t be criticizing “Hyde’s lineups”

[Pat Kelly]

Sometimes it seems like Hyde does what he wants with the lineup.  Not sure any computer spits out Hays is the best option most nights.    
 

Hyde and Elias in pre-game meet. 

 

 

Edited April 1 by Pat Kelly

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Do you have source?  I thought there was podcast interview with Eve last year where she said they give Hyde the suggested daily lineup (I’ll try to find it).  At any rate I think we are getting into semantics here, the meta point being the FO has heavy participation in the daily lineup setting process, more so than other teams.  So fans on OH shouldn’t be criticizing “Hyde’s lineups”

How sure are you that the lineup setting process FO participation is "more so than other teams"? Do you have data, or are you just saying that is what you think?

[Malike]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree. I don't agree with it, but I guess it is what it is. Cowser is the new Stowers on how he will be played. We just have to accept that SIGBOT's computer hates rookies and does understand how to rotate guys to keep them fresh. It's one of the weaknesses of having a computer make it out your "perfect" lineup because it doesn't factor in the human element of guys getting cold by not playing. 

It's a little frustrating as a fan, but as I've always said, the proof is in the results and the Orioles did win 101 games last year after burying Stowers and Cowser (at times) last year.  

SIGBOT's computer seemed to like Adley, Gunnar and Jordan W. 

[Say O!]

I don’t think as simple as RHP/LHP, but instead models more on pitch types and metrics. For example, tonight’s KC starter Wacha is predominantly fastball/changeup pitcher (approx 80%) and both per statcast Hays and Mounty excel vs fastballs (and struggle against RHP breaking balls).  Also Sigbot models likely prefer Hays OF defense in OP@CY.

[Say O!]

31 minutes ago, Malike said:

How sure are you that the lineup setting process FO participation is "more so than other teams"? Do you have data, or are you just saying that is what you think?

Obviously I don’t have datapoints for all 30 clubs, so an assumption.  That being said, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption to make with two things coloring my comment — (1) it’s pretty accepted that Os FO is among the more advanced analytically than average (there was either ESPN or FanGraphs recent  ranking of FO analytics that I cant seem to locate, and (2) don’t hear the same outward discussion about FO input into daily lineups with other clubs.

Edited April 1 by Say O!

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Do you have source?  I thought there was podcast interview with Eve last year where she said they give Hyde the suggested daily lineup (I’ll try to find it).  At any rate I think we are getting into semantics here, the meta point being the FO has heavy participation in the daily lineup setting process, more so than other teams.  So fans on OH shouldn’t be criticizing “Hyde’s lineups”

Exactly. Regardless of whether he has "final say" he's given a lineup that has been run through many factors, and I doubt he's changing much unless it's due to illness or information of health that comes out late. Hyde didn't keep his job through the bad years because he bucked the system and wanted to go off gut.