Winter 2024 40-Man Additions

[luismatos4prez]

I'll be using this thread to predict 40-man roster adds next winter. I've gotten the adds right 2 years straight, hoping to make it 3. Link to last year's thread. I'll check in every month or so to see where things stand.

Here's where I see things now before the minor league season starts. Tony's prospect ranking in parentheses:

Locks:

1. Coby Mayo (3)

2. Chayce McDermott (9)

3. Connor Norby (11)

4. Cade Povich (13)

Unlikely:

5. Brandon Young (30)

6. Jean Pinto (33)

7. Keagan Gillies (34)

8. Hudson Haskin (36)

9. Justin Armbreuster (46)

10. John Rhodes (48)

Other eligible names to watch:

Maverick Handley (49), Billy Cook (40), Garrett Stallings (70), Kyle Brnovich, Carter Baumler (22)

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This year is unique in that there are 4 guys that I would be stunned if they didn't make it and then a bunch of long shots. There aren't any bubble cases for me right now. Maybe someone will play themselves up or down into the bubble as the season goes on.

I expect Mayo to be added during the season and Norby to be traded. McDermott is pretty likely to pitch out of the bullpen at some point, too.

Any predictions or guys I missed?

[wildcard]

There is a guy named Holliday that you didn't mention.

[luismatos4prez]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

There is a guy named Holliday that you didn't mention.

I'm only working with Rule 5 eligible players. Holliday technically doesn't have to be protected for like 3 more years. But of course he'll be on the roster well before next winter.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Good list. I think Gillies and Armbruester have a pretty decent chance, dependent on how they do this year of course. They might even make major league appearances this year, particularly Armbruester. I’d tier them above the rest of the “unlikely” group. 

[Vandy]

The case for Armbruster, Young, and Gillies being bubble guys will obviously depend on their 2024 seasons, nothing earth shattering there. Like CaptainRedbeard said, I could even see a couple of those guys making an appearance this year if guys like Tate, Baumann, Baker etc prove to be unreliable. I would consider Alex Pham in that mix too. 

Another interesting name to watch is Juan Nunez who should be eligible as a 2019 int'l signing. 

[sportsfan8703]

Ambruester could be a up/down guy for us this year in the pen and find himself on the 40 man.

Handley could be added if we have any injury at catcher and could also be added because McCann is a FA. Catching depth is just too thin in MLB to develop Handley all this way and not take advantage of his three optionable years. 

[LookinUp]

I wouldn't put money on Baumler to be healthy, but if he has a healthy year I feel like they'd be forced to protect him.

[interloper]

I think Pinto is getting TJS, right? 

[luismatos4prez]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

I think Pinto is getting TJS, right? 

Ah, I hadn't seen that. He's out then. Worst time to get it, too. He's basically out for 2 years.

I'll add Wandisson Charles to the Names to Watch category on the off chance he learns how to throw strikes. 1 IP 2 K 0 BB in his first outing of the year tonight.

[luismatos4prez]

It's been a couple months, let's check in on where things sit. Tony's ranking in parentheses:

Locks:

1. Coby Mayo (3) - Stud. He won't need to wait till the winter.

2. Cade Povich (5) - Bad start last night but 3.85 xFIP in AAA this year, he's looked really good.

3. Chayce McDermott (8): 14.36 K/9 in Norfolk but 5.74 BB/9 too. 

4. Connor Norby (10): .386 wOBA, .309 xwOBA this year - I'm not a fan but he still gets added

More Likely Than Not:

5. Brandon Young (26): The move to Norfolk proves they think he's for real. He has the best xFIP in the org (2.17) He hasn't thrown 5 innings in an outing yet though. They're still being cautious with him.

6. Kade Strowd (20): 2.88 xFIP and got bumped to Norfolk. He has a real shot to get added. He could be bullpen depth this year even.

Other Names to Watch:

Trey McGough - LHP, got bumped to Norfolk. 3.78 xFIP there so far.

Luis Gonzalez - 32 year old Mexican league find like Suarez, Cesar Valdez, Miguel Gonzalez, but he'll get a cup of coffee this year the way he's pitching. 3.43 xFIP in 22 IP inNorfolk.

Maverick Handley - .246/.357/.396 in Norfolk and reportedly has a strong arm. Do they trade for Blake Hunt if they like Handley to replace McCann next year? 

Nick Richmond - Strong numbers in Bowie to start the year, 3.34 xFIP

Eligible, but Not Playing Well Enough for Consideration:

Hudson Haskin, Billy Cook, Justin Armbreuster, Keagan Gillies, John Rhodes, Carter Baumler, Kyle Brnovich, Moises Chace, Wandisson Charles, Carlos Tavera

[sportsfan8703]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:32 AM, luismatos4prez said:

It's been a couple months, let's check in on where things sit. Tony's ranking in parentheses:

Locks:

1. Coby Mayo (3) - Stud. He won't need to wait till the winter.

2. Cade Povich (5) - Bad start last night but 3.85 xFIP in AAA this year, he's looked really good.

3. Chayce McDermott (8): 14.36 K/9 in Norfolk but 5.74 BB/9 too. 

4. Connor Norby (10): .386 wOBA, .309 xwOBA this year - I'm not a fan but he still gets added

More Likely Than Not:

5. Brandon Young (26): The move to Norfolk proves they think he's for real. He has the best xFIP in the org (2.17) He hasn't thrown 5 innings in an outing yet though. They're still being cautious with him.

6. Kade Strowd (20): 2.88 xFIP and got bumped to Norfolk. He has a real shot to get added. He could be bullpen depth this year even.

Other Names to Watch:

Trey McGough - LHP, got bumped to Norfolk. 3.78 xFIP there so far.

Luis Gonzalez - 32 year old Mexican league find like Suarez, Cesar Valdez, Miguel Gonzalez, but he'll get a cup of coffee this year the way he's pitching. 3.43 xFIP in 22 IP inNorfolk.

Maverick Handley - .246/.357/.396 in Norfolk and reportedly has a strong arm. Do they trade for Blake Hunt if they like Handley to replace McCann next year? 

Nick Richmond - Strong numbers in Bowie to start the year, 3.34 xFIP

Eligible, but Not Playing Well Enough for Consideration:

Hudson Haskin, Billy Cook, Justin Armbreuster, Keagan Gillies, John Rhodes, Carter Baumler, Kyle Brnovich, Moises Chace, Wandisson Charles, Carlos Tavera

Good thread. This is getting easier as the season goes on with Holliday, Povich, and Norby on the current 40 man. 

McDermott and Mayo are locks and could be added to the 26 man and 40 man soon. 

So after that Billy Cook has played himself into being a lock. Personally, I like Brnovich. He’s a guy that has just matriculated through our system post Bundy trade with the LAA. He had TJ. Good Results, and Good K/IP K/9. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good thread. This is getting easier as the season goes on with Holliday, Povich, and Norby on the current 40 man. 

McDermott and Mayo are locks and could be added to the 26 man and 40 man soon. 

So after that Billy Cook has played himself into being a lock. Personally, I like Brnovich. He’s a guy that has just matriculated through our system post Bundy trade with the LAA. He had TJ. Good Results, and Good K/IP K/9. 

I don’t think Billy Cook is a lock but both he and Daniel Johnson will be seriously considered.  Brnovich?   No chance.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think Billy Cook is a lock but both he and Daniel Johnson will be seriously considered.  Brnovich?   No chance.

I think those are both the preseason reads on Cook and Brnovich.  Cook has really put himself on the map as a utility option for next year.  Heck, we might lose Norby in a trade at this year's deadline, then move on from Urias, and/or Mateo.  So Cook would be a valuable platoon 2B with Holliday, and a RH platoon bat to pair with our LHH OF/1B/DH types of Kjerstad/Cowser/O'Hearn/Basallo.  

Brnovich has a lot less certainty.  However, I think he would've sniffed the big leagues by now had he not had TJ Surgery.  Even just as a matriculator up/down type.  

Edited Thursday at 14:56 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think those are both the preseason reads on Cook and Brnovich.  Cook has really put himself on the map as a utility option for next year.  Heck, we might lose Norby in a trade at this year's deadline, then move on from Urias, and/or Mateo.  So Cook would be a valuable platoon 2B with Holliday, and a RH platoon bat to pair with our LHH OF/1B/DH types of Kjerstad/Cowser/O'Hearn/Basallo.  

Brnovich has a lot less certainty.  However, I think he would've sniffed the big leagues by now had he not had TJ Surgery.  Even just as a matriculator up/down type.  

No one is going to platoon with Holliday, most likely.  Urias will be gone but I bet Mateo is still here plus Holliday might not even be the 2B plus I don’t believe Cook will ever be more than emergency type 2B or 1B.   If he makes it to the majors.

Brnovich, Young, Chace, Portes.   Would you protect Brnovich before any of the others?

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No one is going to platoon with Holliday, most likely.  Urias will be gone but I bet Mateo is still here plus Holliday might not even be the 2B plus I don’t believe Cook will ever be more than emergency type 2B or 1B.   If he makes it to the majors.

Brnovich, Young, Chace, Portes.   Would you protect Brnovich before any of the others?

I might be higher on Brnovich more than others.  I like his K/9 K/IP rate.  His WHIP has always been low too.  More K's than IP.  Doesn't have a bunch of baserunners.  He turns 27 shortly.  He's sort of a RH Zimmerman.  I think you protect a guy like that because he can be a up/down guy for 3 years, but also is the type of arm that would get picked in the Rule 5.

We always way overestimate who would get picked in the rule 5.  IF things stay the same with Brnovich and he sniffs AAA this year, then I say in his case that we protect him.  Losing the three SP to TJ helps his case.