The Defense Thread, 2024

[Aristotelian]

His fielding % is basically identical to last year. OAA has him about even for his career and 44th percentile in 2024 down from 56th in '23. dWAR has him down from 2.0 to 1.0, Fangraphs "Def" has him up from 3.3 to 3.9. I see a lot of noise but overall he appears to be about average.

I think the problem is he has been streakier this year and most of his errors have come in this period where the team is also struggling in other phases of the game. 

He definitely has a tendency to go for the high risk spectacular play but he converts them often enough that I don't think I'd want him to change. 

The play last night was tough but makeable. So was Urias's, for that matter. I could have seen both scored hits although I expect both plays to be made most of the time. 

[theobird]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Derek Jeter has five rings.

And Derek Jeter averaged 12.8 errors per season over his career. I hate the Yankees as much as anyone, and will always think that Jeter was way over hyped. But…..Nahhh

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, theobird said:

And Derek Jeter averaged 12.8 errors per season over his career. I hate the Yankees as much as anyone, and will always think that Jeter was way over hyped. But…..Nahhh

They don't award errors on balls you don't have the range to reach.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They don't award errors on balls you don't have the range to reach.

But they do award homeruns to him when a kid reaches over.  

[Frobby]

Something I’ve noticed about Ryan O’Hearn is that he doesn’t always stretch as far as he can on close plays at 1B.   Twice in the last couple of days our opponent has challenged a DP call based on whether the runner beat the throw at 1B.   The first time, the call was overturned; the second time (yesterday) it wasn’t, but arguably should have been.  And both times, the play was much closer than it had to be because O’Hearn was kind of passive about receiving the throw rather than extending fully and getting the ball into his glove as early as possible.  He’s not a great 1B anyway (-4 Rtot, -5 Rdrs, -2 OAA), but this is kind of low hanging fruit.  

[Frobby]

Game 142, Sept. 6

The O’s won 2-0 tonight despite three critical late-inning errors that could have lost us the game.

Top of the 7th, two on, a grounder is hit right to O’Hearn that should be a 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 DP ball, but he boots it and the bases are loaded with nobody out.  Miraculously, Cano comes in and retires the side without alllowing a run.  

Top of the 8th, two outs, and Gunnar lets a cue shot to his right get under his glove, bringing up top prospect Junior Caminiero.  Dominguez bails out Gunnar with a devastating 2 strike slider for strike 3.

Top of the 9th, one out, runner on 1st, tailor made DP grounder to Gunnar, who can’t get the ball out of his glove cleanly, throws to 1st too late, everyone is safe.  Dominguez bails out Gunnar again by striking out the next hitter and inducing a game ending pop up that Gunnar actually catches.

Amazing job by the bullpen to neutralize those mistakes.  But it won’t happen like that every time.  What should have been a relatively routine win was made into a super-stressful one.  And Dominguez had to get 4 outs and throw 27 pitches, so he’s probably not available for Saturday’s game.

 

[LA2]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Game 142, Sept. 6

The O’s won 2-0 tonight despite three critical late-inning errors that could have lost us the game.

Top of the 7th, two on, a grounder is hit right to O’Hearn that should be a 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 DP ball, but he boots it and the bases are loaded with nobody out.  Miraculously, Cano comes in and retires the side without alllowing a run.  

Top of the 8th, two outs, and Gunnar lets a cue shot to his right get under his glove, bringing up top prospect Junior Caminiero.  Dominguez bails out Gunnar with a devastating 2 strike slider for strike 3.

Top of the 9th, one out, runner on 1st, tailor made DP grounder to Gunnar, who can’t get the ball out of his glove cleanly, throws to 1st too late, everyone is safe.  Dominguez bails out Gunnar again by striking out the next hitter and inducing a game ending pop up that Gunnar actually catches.

Amazing job by the bullpen to neutralize those mistakes.  But it won’t happen like that every time.  What should have been a relatively routine win was made into a super-stressful one.  And Dominguez had to get 4 outs and throw 27 pitches, so he’s probably not available for Saturday’s game.

 

Yes, you don't get away with that stuff in the postseason.

[Frobby]

Game 153, Sept. 19

Lots of notable defensive plays today.  

Kjerstad made two excellent catches, one going back and towards the RCF alley that (per Kevin Brown) was a 50% probability catch, and another going back to the wall near the corner and making the catch at close to full speed.  

Holliday snared a line drive at the top of his leap, and also made a nice backhand running catch of a soft fly into medium RF.

Mullins made a diving catch in the 7th on a sinking liner that he got a great jump on.  

In the 9th, with runners on 1st and 2nd, Heliot hit a liner in the RCF gap that carried much further than it first appeared it would.   Mullins and Slater dove for it simultaneously and Slater actually gloved it for a second before it popped out while Slater landed on Mullins.  Luckily, the two base runners totally misread the play, and after Slater quickly scrambled to his feet and threw the ball in, the runner originally on 2B scored but the runner on 1st only advanced to 2B, and the batter had to stop at first.  The O’s were able to keep any further runs from scoring.

One thing I’ve noticed about Manny Rivera is that he’s very slow charging bunts and slow rollers/choppers. He handled one bunt and one chopper in front of him today and both times the runner beat his throw rather easily, something that has happened a lot when Rivera has manned 3B.   I’m more than ready to have Urias -and/or Westburg back at the hot corner.  
 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One thing I’ve noticed about Manny Rivera is that he’s very slow charging bunts and slow rollers/choppers. He handled one bunt and one chopper in front of him today and both times the runner beat his throw rather easily, something that has happened a lot when Rivera has manned 3B.   I’m more than ready to have Urias -and/or Westburg back at the hot corner.

I've heard folks I trust a lot here report on him as being good but on a gut level those plays bugged me too.

I think Holliday is sufficient alone as a 5th infielder as a playoff roster gets configured, and believe in series you get injury replacements if Urias re-rolls the ankle or Gunnar breaks somebody else's arm.    Rivera and Soto are kind of both about that speed.

From comments we know Urias, Westburg, Mountcastle the probable return order, but TBD on the Rivera, Soto, Eloy departures.    I think there's some value to Coby Mayo staying around even if he just watches ala '70 Grich "did not play in series".