Coby Mayo 2024

[baltfan]

On 7/23/2024 at 9:02 AM, Tony-OH said:

If the plan is to bring him up with just enough time to keep his RoY candidacy in 2025, then they'll promote him like they did with Gunnar on 8/31/ This would allow him to be playoff eligible if deemed needed.

Couldn’t they bring him up earlier and not play him as much?  Gunnar played basically everyday but the other options weren’t so great 

[Aristotelian]

18 hours ago, baltfan said:

Couldn’t they bring him up earlier and not play him as much?  Gunnar played basically everyday but the other options weren’t so great 

There's also a limit of 45 days on the roster. So something like August 16-17 with less than 130 AB. 

Four games in a row at 1B now. Could be laying the groundwork for Mountcastle replacement. 

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[seak05]

What's the real story on his defense? Because I see some reports that his defense at 3b is fine, and then I see other reports that he will probably have to DH? 

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, seak05 said:

What's the real story on his defense? Because I see some reports that his defense at 3b is fine, and then I see other reports that he will probably have to DH? 

How much depends on his bat?  

Best case scenario maybe like Riley at 3B.  Most likely 3B scenario seems to be Devers.  If he doesn't hit as we hope, I doubt he sticks.

1B and RF takes reps.  But think he can figure both out.  The arm plays up in RF.  The IF experience plays up at 1B (Mounty's path).

If DH is the worst case scenario and he's a true MOO, I'll take that too.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, seak05 said:

What's the real story on his defense? Because I see some reports that his defense at 3b is fine, and then I see other reports that he will probably have to DH? 

This is one of these things where we’re just going to have to see for ourselves.  I’m sure he’ll get opportunities at 3B and we’ll see how it goes.  His error rate in the minors is pretty high, but it’s tough to judge other factors like range by looking at minor league stats.   I think the optimistic scenario is serviceable 3B whose bat is good enough to make up for any defensive shortcomings.  The pessimistic scenario is either (1) good bat but the glove won’t play, or (2) serviceable glove but the bat isn’t good enough to make him our best overall 3B option.  

[Tony-OH]

I've a big of a supporter as they come with Mayo, but if you recall earlier this year, I said major league pitches will go after him with breaking balls because he had a high whiff rate with them in AAA. Sure enough, they've done just that throwing how over 50% breaking balls including a lot of slider. Now I think Coby will make the adjustments and will begin to hit the mistakes, but there is no doubt that is something he needs to fix.

It's been 12 PAs so I wouldn't take too much out of any of this other than it's obvious what the scouting report is on him and obvious that his 71.4% whiff rate against breaking balls says the scouting report is right. 

Now he made some adjustments to AAA breaking balls and certainly showed he could hit the mistakes at times. Now, we have to see how he adjusts with major league breaking balls.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've a big of a supporter as they come with Mayo, but if you recall earlier this year, the thing I said major league pitches will go after him with is breaking balls because he had a high whiff rate with them in AAA. Sure enough, they've done just that throwing how over 50% breaking balls including a lot of slider. Now I think Coby will make the adjustments and will begin to hit the mistakes, but there is no doubt that is something he needs to fix.

It's been 12 PAs so I wouldn't take too much out of any of this other than it's obvious what the scouting report is on him and obvious that his 71.4% whiff rate against breaking balls says the scouting report is right. 

Now he made some adjustments to AAA breaking balls and certainly showed he could hit the mistakes at times. Now, we have to see how he adjusts with major league breaking balls.

He has swung at a lot of bad pitches. I think he’s very anxious up there too (in addition to what you are saying).

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've a big of a supporter as they come with Mayo, but if you recall earlier this year, the thing I said major league pitches will go after him with is breaking balls because he had a high whiff rate with them in AAA. Sure enough, they've done just that throwing how over 50% breaking balls including a lot of slider. Now I think Coby will make the adjustments and will begin to hit the mistakes, but there is no doubt that is something he needs to fix.

It's been 12 PAs so I wouldn't take too much out of any of this other than it's obvious what the scouting report is on him and obvious that his 71.4% whiff rate against breaking balls says the scouting report is right. 

Now he made some adjustments to AAA breaking balls and certainly showed he could hit the mistakes at times. Now, we have to see how he adjusts with major league breaking balls.

Advanced scouting is up there with age.  Both are undefeated.  

[LookitsPuck]

A 50% strikeout rate isn't a great start. But it's only 12 PA. And typically, he's more along the lines of ~25% of PA. 

He'll be fine. But these are the lumps you get. Cowser had them, Adley had them, Holliday had them, Gunnar had them in 2023 to start his first full season, the list will go on.

I guess the benefit here is he was called up in early August and not in early September. He'll have time to adjust or we'll see him next year. 

[Moose Milligan]

I've seen enough.  When can we send him back down?

Wait, he's not approaching Holliday's first stint at-bat totals yet, is he?  When can I rightfully declare that I've run out of patience?

[rm5678]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I've seen enough.  When can we send him back down?

Wait, he's not approaching Holliday's first stint at-bat totals yet, is he?  When can I rightfully declare that I've run out of patience?

My guess is they'll give Mayo another 10 days to 2 weeks. Maybe they signed JD Davis to push Mayo to adjust quicker if he doesn't want to get sent down.

[Rbiggs2525]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've a big of a supporter as they come with Mayo, but if you recall earlier this year, I said major league pitches will go after him with breaking balls because he had a high whiff rate with them in AAA. Sure enough, they've done just that throwing how over 50% breaking balls including a lot of slider. Now I think Coby will make the adjustments and will begin to hit the mistakes, but there is no doubt that is something he needs to fix.

It's been 12 PAs so I wouldn't take too much out of any of this other than it's obvious what the scouting report is on him and obvious that his 71.4% whiff rate against breaking balls says the scouting report is right. 

Now he made some adjustments to AAA breaking balls and certainly showed he could hit the mistakes at times. Now, we have to see how he adjusts with major league breaking balls.

I think this is where analytics can go wrong. The Orioles may be showing these kids, pitcher A throws 50% fastball, 25% slider and 25% change up. Coby Mayo would go up to the plate saying, hey there is 50% chance I’m going to get a fastball. The issue is they are going to attack his weakness. He should have an approach of only swinging at pitches middle thigh or higher until 2 strikes. He should be looking at reverse analytics on himself. His approach is a bit pull heavy if you ask me. Of course he will be fine and I am a believer.

[LookitsPuck]

11 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I think this is where analytics can go wrong. The Orioles may be showing these kids, pitcher A throws 50% fastball, 25% slider and 25% change up. Coby Mayo would go up to the plate saying, hey there is 50% chance I’m going to get a fastball. The issue is they are going to attack his weakness. He should have an approach of only swinging at pitches middle thigh or higher until 2 strikes. He should be looking at reverse analytics on himself. His approach is a bit pull heavy if you ask me. Of course he will be fine and I am a believer.

The Orioles development staff know Mayo's weakness well before he's called up. These are things they work on day in and day out. Once they're called up, they need to be equipped with the data that shows what kinds of pitches they throw. Hell, the hitting coaches both in the minors and the majors are even creative with batting practice. 

Meoli had a great article about this on his Substack a couple years ago regarding Matt Blood and his hitting coaches approach: https://jonmeoli.substack.com/p/orioles-hitting-coach-mixed-bp

Mayo has data on his weaknesses. But he's also a rookie, probably super anxious and being put through the ringers. Hell, PHing cold in a close game with the bases juiced when you haven't even got your first major league hit is a ton of pressure. That'll get better once he gets his first hit or a few under him.

Edited August 7 by LookitsPuck

[VICIOUS]

Count me in as a non-believer. He doesn't look fluid