Colton Cowser 2024

[Too Tall]

You have a young player who has been raised to almost cult status (MOO YOU) that is trying to adjust in the hardest league there is. It's bad enough for any prospect and harder for one who has folks showing up as cows and the organization reserving a fan section for them. IMO, pressure equal or greater to what Holliday had thrown at him when he came up. That's a lot to live up to while the league is literally throwing "the book" at you.

Not making excuses. Just saying I feel for the guy and hope he can turn his current funk around. At least so far the Orioles are allowing him to try. 

[Frobby]

Okay, I am going to lay into Cowser a bit here. 

In the majors, a runner on 3B with less than two outs is advanced slightly more than half the time.  A runner on 2B with nobody out also is advanced a little more than half the time.  

Cowser has had the most opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than two out of anyone on the team, and he’s 4 for 14 (28.6%) in those situations.  He’s also had the most opportunities with a runner on second and nobody out, and has advanced the runner only 3 times in 9 opportunities.  

In RISP situations, he’s hitting .222/.250/.417.   In Late & Close situations, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238.  In high leverage situations, he’s hitting .048/.046/.095.   

Honestly, right now he’s about the last guy I want to see up in an important situation.  And that’s ridiculous for a guy who’s hitting .250/.331/.500 overall.  He’s got to get his head screwed on straight when it matters most.  




 

[oh-wee-ohs]

He's young and has a very boisterous personality. This funk literally started the day he was crowned player of the week. He's trying too hard and pressing to get back to / repeat that performance.  Another learning experience. Hopefully he locks in soon and levels that mentality out. I also think Jackson being sent down has probably made him feel pressured as well. They seemed to be pretty close. The culmination of those things just screams trying too hard to me 

Edited May 16 by oh-wee-ohs

[Roy Firestone]

what is happening now more than ev er is a player has a fast start, and fans and media think he could be a budding superstar...then he struggles, and then it gets into his head...and then the league figures him out....he needs to clear his head...slow down his approach and get away for a few days. He needs to sit. And so does Mullins.

[interloper]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Okay, I am going to lay into Cowser a bit here. 

In the majors, a runner on 3B with less than two outs is advanced slightly more than half the time.  A runner on 2B with nobody out also is advanced a little more than half the time.  

Cowser has had the most opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than two out of anyone on the team, and he’s 4 for 14 (28.6%) in those situations.  He’s also had the most opportunities with a runner on second and nobody out, and has advanced the runner only 3 times in 9 opportunities.  

In RISP situations, he’s hitting .222/.250/.417.   In Late & Close situations, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238.  In high leverage situations, he’s hitting .048/.046/.095.   

Honestly, right now he’s about the last guy I want to see up in an important situation.  And that’s ridiculous for a guy who’s hitting .250/.331/.500 overall.  He’s got to get his head screwed on straight when it matters most.  
 

It's because he can't make contact reliably. Pure and simple. He's not a contact guy, he's an all or nothing guy. I like him, but this has always been his issue and it's the most frustrating part of his game. 

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Okay, I am going to lay into Cowser a bit here. 

In the majors, a runner on 3B with less than two outs is advanced slightly more than half the time.  A runner on 2B with nobody out also is advanced a little more than half the time.  

Cowser has had the most opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than two out of anyone on the team, and he’s 4 for 14 (28.6%) in those situations.  He’s also had the most opportunities with a runner on second and nobody out, and has advanced the runner only 3 times in 9 opportunities.  

In RISP situations, he’s hitting .222/.250/.417.   In Late & Close situations, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238.  In high leverage situations, he’s hitting .048/.046/.095.   

Honestly, right now he’s about the last guy I want to see up in an important situation.  And that’s ridiculous for a guy who’s hitting .250/.331/.500 overall.  He’s got to get his head screwed on straight when it matters most.  




 

I don't know if its getting his head screwed on straight as much has its learning to hit anything but a fastball.    Pitchers have the book on him now and he has to adjust or he will just keep seeing off speed pitches that he can't hit.

What happened in April is old news for him as is his averages for the year.   He is in a new adjustment period.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's because he can't make contact reliably. Pure and simple. He's not a contact guy, he's an all or nothing guy. I like him, but this has always been his issue and it's the most frustrating part of his game. 

Well, I’d at least like to see him making contact in key situations as often as he does in non-key situations.  His overall whiff rate is 31.3%, but it’s 42.9% with RISP, 37.5% Late & Close, 50% high leverage.  

Just to compare that to league norms, the respective percentages are 22.4% overall, 21.3% RISP, 23.7% L&C, 22.6% High Leverage.  So, you don’t see a big increase in strikeout rate in those situations for the average hitter.   But Cowser’s whiffs are coming in the biggest spots, disproportionately to other times.   That really suggests he’s got a poor approach to those at bats (sorry, @Sports Guy).   
 

[CaptainRedbeard]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I’d at least like to see him making contact in key situations as often as he does in non-key situations.  His overall whiff rate is 31.3%, but it’s 42.9% with RISP, 37.5% Late & Close, 50% high leverage.  

Just to compare that to league norms, the respective percentages are 22.4% overall, 21.3% RISP, 23.7% L&C, 22.6% High Leverage.  So, you don’t see a big increase in strikeout rate in those situations for the average hitter.   But Cowser’s whiffs are coming in the biggest spots, disproportionately to other times.   That really suggests he’s got a poor approach to those at bats (sorry, @Sports Guy).   
 

Maybe a poor approach by Cowser, but maybe also a change in approach by pitchers with RISP and higher leverage situations? In those cases pitchers may be more willing to allow a walk, which means a lot of offspeed. In lower pressure situations Cowser may be getting more fastballs?

I expect Cowser is going to be a 30 K% guy and always have whiff issues on offspeed. I’m sure he’s working on adjustments, but it’s such a glaring hole in his game that it’s not going to go away. He’s only going to be successful if he can do damage on fastballs and do a good enough job of laying off offspeed to get himself in favorable counts, and take walks when pitchers don’t throw him fastballs. He probably needs to actually get more patient in the pressure situations, rather than chase offspeed because he’s trying to put the ball in play and dig himself into bad counts.

The flip side is that Cowser does crush fastballs, and he has a good eye. He’d really benefit from the automated strike zone. But I don’t think he’s ever going to be the guy you want at the plate when you just want a ball in play. 

[e16bball]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't know if its getting his head screwed on straight as much has its learning to hit anything but a fastball.    Pitchers have the book on him now and he has to adjust or he will just keep seeing off speed pitches that he can't hit.

What happened in April is old news for him as is his averages for the year.   He is in a new adjustment period.

Not to nitpick you too much, because I think a substantial part of what you’re saying is true — but he’s absolutely destroyed sliders this year, and he’s also been good against cutters, so I don’t think it’s exactly accurate to say he can only hit fastballs. The problem has been specifically with the pitches that substantially change speed and/or present a lot of downward movement (changeups, primarily, but also curveballs).

They are definitely changing the way they pitch to him, and I think he’s hyper-aware of it — hence the late trigger (or no trigger at all) against fastballs recently. The next step for him is being able to spit on the downward breakers that aren’t strikes. If he can do that, he is going to be a terrific hitter.

That’s a huge step, obviously, and lots of guys can never do it. But I think it’s promising that he seems to have no issues at all hitting pitches with horizontal movement, because he clearly can recognize and adjust to spin/break. 

[Malike]

I hope he can make the adjustments he needs to. His defense has been very good and he's still likely a frontrunner for ROY if he can keep his OPS around .800 and playing good defense. There isn't much competition right now but for Miller. They are both currently at 1.3 fWAR.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Okay, I am going to lay into Cowser a bit here. 

In the majors, a runner on 3B with less than two outs is advanced slightly more than half the time.  A runner on 2B with nobody out also is advanced a little more than half the time.  

Cowser has had the most opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than two out of anyone on the team, and he’s 4 for 14 (28.6%) in those situations.  He’s also had the most opportunities with a runner on second and nobody out, and has advanced the runner only 3 times in 9 opportunities.  

In RISP situations, he’s hitting .222/.250/.417.   In Late & Close situations, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238.  In high leverage situations, he’s hitting .048/.046/.095.   

Honestly, right now he’s about the last guy I want to see up in an important situation.  And that’s ridiculous for a guy who’s hitting .250/.331/.500 overall.  He’s got to get his head screwed on straight when it matters most.  




 

Thanks for providing the numbers and I think it shows why people are frustrated with him. I don't know whether this is just small sample size situation or genuinely a problem for him dealing with pressure.

Some guys just handle pressure situations better than others. I agree with you though, right now, he's the last guy I want up in these situations too.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

It's because he can't make contact reliably. Pure and simple. He's not a contact guy, he's an all or nothing guy. I like him, but this has always been his issue and it's the most frustrating part of his game. 

Cowser definitely has whiff in his game. He had in the minors and he's going to have it in the majors unless he changes his approach. Saying that, he can do damage when he connects and if he goes back to being more selective he's going to get back to having success. Right now he can't hit anything low and away offspeed and pitcher know this. Then once he's cheating offspeed they're busting him inside with fastballs.

 

[AdamK]

It's painful to watch. I feel like I am in a slump with him. His 4th inning hit from one knee against those salty dorks resulted in this gem:

He knows. Have a feeling that if/when he makes it to the other side of this, it'll be a while until we see it again.

[Natty]

He's batting .333 since he shaved his beard. 

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser definitely has whiff in his game. He had in the minors and he's going to have it in the majors unless he changes his approach. Saying that, he can do damage when he connects and if he goes back to being more selective he's going to get back to having success. Right now he can't hit anything low and away offspeed and pitcher know this. Then once he's cheating offspeed they're busting him inside with fastballs.

 

i thought he improved here enough.  Teams are matching up with him in close/late situations and I think it magnifies his strikeout issues because they're matching him up with tough lefthanders, and it's probably better for his overall development to let him try and figure it out.

 

He was doing a good job shooting those low/away offspeed balls to left field when he was hot.  Now it looks like they're throwing it off the plate and he's either getting screwed by bad strike calls, or he's whiffing on close pitches.