Colton Cowser 2024

[spiritof66]

On 8/31/2024 at 11:36 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Cowser needs to spend an hour a day this offseason taking batting practice but not swinging.  Just identifying whether something is a strike or ball.  I assume this is a thing.  Any balls that are hittable, he should indicate.  I know he's had a good rookie season, but it seems like his strike zone judgement is so poor and is holding him back from being a really good hitter.

And at least an hour a day practicing throws to second base, third base and home that are in the vicinity of the target.

[Hallas]

On 8/31/2024 at 8:44 PM, Mendoza Line said:

I feel it is less strike zone judgement more just inability to hit the change up.  If his strike zone judgement was terrible, he wouldn't walk as much as he does.  He just can't hit change ups (and breaking balls) with any kind of consistency.  He doesn't just strike out on them out of the zone, there is a lot of swing and miss on them in the zone.  If (hopefully, when) he (and Jackson) figure them out, they will be monsters at the plate.

He's murdered breaking balls all year.  He cant hit the broad side of a barn if it's offspeed. 

[Aristotelian]

On 8/31/2024 at 11:36 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Cowser needs to spend an hour a day this offseason taking batting practice but not swinging.  Just identifying whether something is a strike or ball.  I assume this is a thing.  Any balls that are hittable, he should indicate.  I know he's had a good rookie season, but it seems like his strike zone judgement is so poor and is holding him back from being a really good hitter.

I don't know that ball/strike judgment is the problem. He ranks 2nd on the team on PPA and above the median in BB%. Yesterday he was swinging at pitches out of the zone on the first AB but good pitches in the second AB. I would guess his score on the Sigbot swing decisions app would be pretty good. His 25% swing rate outside the zone is slightly lower than league average (30%) and about the same as Gunnar's. I think the problem is more just that he just can't hit offspeed, esp. changeups and splitters.

FB .241

Sinker .280

Cutter .350

Curveball .270

Changeup .194

Splitter .167

Slider .241

[Roy Firestone]

Cowser with two strikes is hard to watch. I dont have the stats,but his strikeout rate with 2 strikes must be about 50% or more.Its almost a sure thing he strikes out with 2 strikes...

[Spy Fox]

On 8/31/2024 at 11:36 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

Cowser needs to spend an hour a day this offseason taking batting practice but not swinging.  Just identifying whether something is a strike or ball.  I assume this is a thing.  Any balls that are hittable, he should indicate.  I know he's had a good rookie season, but it seems like his strike zone judgement is so poor and is holding him back from being a really good hitter.

You got me curious to look at some of Cowser's zone judgement data.

His strike zone awareness in terms of swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls overall is pretty decent. His chase rate is better than league average: he swings at 25% of pitches outside the zone, when league average this year is over 28%. And this swing rate chart looks decent enough. 

But, the Swing % alone is hiding something. While he's better than average at not chasing, he stinks at hitting the balls he chases: out of zone contact is 43.7% as opposed to the league average of 56.5%. That's a huge gap and explains most of his overall very bad whiff rate. 

Look at the amount of total swings, total pitches, and his whiff rates: 

Pitchers are throwing him a ton of pitches below the zone, and while he lays off them decently at a rate basis, he needs to lay off them even more because when he swings at them he's helpless. 

He punishes anyone who leaves the ball up, but it's too easy right now for pitchers to get him out with low pitches only. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Cowser with two strikes is hard to watch. I dont have the stats,but his strikeout rate with 2 strikes must be about 50% or more.Its almost a sure thing he strikes out with 2 strikes...

Well Roy, you have to start with the fact that 42% of all two-strike counts in MLB end in a strikeout.  So, exceeding 50% on two-strike counts isn’t really that high.  Having said that, Cowser is at 144 K’s in 279 two-strike counts, or 51.6%.   But I wouldn’t call 51.6% “almost a sure thing.” It’s a coin flip.  

A guy like Adley, on the other hand, strikes out only 29.5% of the time with two strikes.  
 

[SemperFi]

On 9/3/2024 at 12:40 AM, EnochRoot said:

It boils down to his ability to recognize off-speed pitches. Him hitting/not hitting in the clutch is nonsense. Total bullsh.. The league has him sussed, and it’s off-speed pitches until he figures it out. 

IMO this falls on the O’s coaching staff that it’s still an issue. I get they couldn’t send him to Norfolk again, cuz they’re not going to give you that diet of breaking/off-speed junk. 

One of the nice things about OH is that people generally don't mock others as per the above.  My position is different than yours but it has been argued for 50 years and doesn't derserve ridicule.  Here is the original leverage equation-before WAR:

I agree that he has a problem recognizing off speed, but it's more than that it's execution-certain times he knows it's coming-we all know it coming-he's sitting on it but he can't hit it.  Is that because the Orioles want a certain VBA and he can't adjust to off speed pitches-then it's also a development issue but yes-you don't see quality MLB off speed pitches at AAA-you also don't see premium pitches to set up off speed either.

Nonetheless I'll repeat-Cowser hits so far below the mean in leverage situations that it can't be explained by just bad luck.  He has a BABIP of .214 with the higher K's (34%) and a much lower walk rate (4%).  And that K rate kills you as there is no runner advance.  He OPS's 300 points higher in low leverage.  He's bad, he's really bad-but so is Bryce Harper (this year).  https://tinyurl.com/yc53zr23

it is my personal experience in the military, business and sports certain people handle pressure situation  better than others.  

SABR and others contend that good hitters and good and poor-poor no matter the game situation.  That leverage is not substainable year over year.  It's compelling but there are a number of players that produce greater WAR in leverage situations over their career-in recent memory Mark Grace was +14 WAR, Toby Harrah +13-there are many others such as  Orioles Eddie Murray and Harold Baines.  I detailed many others throughout MLB history in a previous post.

 

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

 

SABR and others contend that good hitters and good and poor-poor no matter the game situation.  That leverage is not substainable year over year.  It's compelling but there are a number of players that produce greater WAR in leverage situations over their career-in recent memory Mark Grace was +14 WAR, Toby Harrah +13-there are many others such as  Orioles Eddie Murray and Harold Baines.  I detailed many others throughout MLB history in a previous post.

I’ve never heard of a WAR breakdown by leverage situation.  Where would I find that?

Anyway, I agree with you that Cowser’s poor performance in those situations is not explained solely by luck or random variation.  Clearly he’s not approaching those situations well at this point in his career.   I’m hopeful that with time and experience, his performance in those situations will improve.   Especially the runner on 3B less then two outs situation.  

[EnochRoot]

7 hours ago, SemperFi said:

One of the nice things about OH is that people generally don't mock others as per the above.  My position is different than yours but it has been argued for 50 years and doesn't derserve ridicule.  Here is the original leverage equation-before WAR:

I agree that he has a problem recognizing off speed, but it's more than that it's execution-certain times he knows it's coming-we all know it coming-he's sitting on it but he can't hit it.  Is that because the Orioles want a certain VBA and he can't adjust to off speed pitches-then it's also a development issue but yes-you don't see quality MLB off speed pitches at AAA-you also don't see premium pitches to set up off speed either.

Nonetheless I'll repeat-Cowser hits so far below the mean in leverage situations that it can't be explained by just bad luck.  He has a BABIP of .214 with the higher K's (34%) and a much lower walk rate (4%).  And that K rate kills you as there is no runner advance.  He OPS's 300 points higher in low leverage.  He's bad, he's really bad-but so is Bryce Harper (this year).  https://tinyurl.com/yc53zr23

it is my personal experience in the military, business and sports certain people handle pressure situation  better than others.  

SABR and others contend that good hitters and good and poor-poor no matter the game situation.  That leverage is not substainable year over year.  It's compelling but there are a number of players that produce greater WAR in leverage situations over their career-in recent memory Mark Grace was +14 WAR, Toby Harrah +13-there are many others such as  Orioles Eddie Murray and Harold Baines.  I detailed many others throughout MLB history in a previous post.

 

 

 

 

 

Mocking the clutch argument isn’t necessarily mocking you. Regardless you’re swimming in a tidal pool of small sample size. 

[SemperFi]

Is 10,000 plate appearances enough for you? 

Leverage at bats account for about 10% of at bats so I guess it's really around 1,000 plate appearances-that's a hell of a lot for a tidal pool.  For context there are roughly 60 in MLB history with 10,000 plate appearances.

Best Career Clutch Ratings Since 1972
Player	PA	Career	Per 650 PA
1. Mark Grace	9,290	+13.68	+0.96
2. Toby Harrah	8,337	+13.46	+1.05
3. Jason Kendall	5,958	+12.96	+1.41
4. Kent Hrbek	7,137	+12.83	+1.17
5. Matt Lawton	5,541	+12.10	+1.42
6. Darrell Evans	10,352	+11.81	+0.74
7. Scott Fletcher	5,976	+11.43	+1.24
8. Jeromy Burnitz	6,237	+11.26	+1.17
9. Kirby Puckett	7,831	+11.06	+0.92
10. Harold Baines	11,092	+10.73	+0.63
11. Tony Gwynn	10,232	+9.83	+0.62

[EnochRoot]

15 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Is 10,000 plate appearances enough for you? 

Leverage at bats account for about 10% of at bats so I guess it's really around 1,000 plate appearances-that's a hell of a lot for a tidal pool.  For context there are roughly 60 in MLB history with 10,000 plate appearances.

Best Career Clutch Ratings Since 1972
Player	PA	Career	Per 650 PA
1. Mark Grace	9,290	+13.68	+0.96
2. Toby Harrah	8,337	+13.46	+1.05
3. Jason Kendall	5,958	+12.96	+1.41
4. Kent Hrbek	7,137	+12.83	+1.17
5. Matt Lawton	5,541	+12.10	+1.42
6. Darrell Evans	10,352	+11.81	+0.74
7. Scott Fletcher	5,976	+11.43	+1.24
8. Jeromy Burnitz	6,237	+11.26	+1.17
9. Kirby Puckett	7,831	+11.06	+0.92
10. Harold Baines	11,092	+10.73	+0.63
11. Tony Gwynn	10,232	+9.83	+0.62

This is a Colton Cowser thread. He doesn’t have 10,000 plate appearances in his HS/collegiate/Pro career. 

If you’re arguing clutch as a relevant metric, well…good luck. I mean, look at that list. There’s some good hitters there, but that’s not exactly a snapshot of the game’s elite. 

[Campmoon]

One commonality of that list is all have lower than MLB average strikeout percentages. Being able to put the ball in play would certainly contribute to leverage WAR accumulation.

[EnochRoot]

5 minutes ago, Campmoon said:

One commonality of that list is all have lower than MLB average strikeout percentages. Being able to put the ball in play would certainly contribute to leverage WAR accumulation.

They’re also all not rookies. It’s a faulty conclusion. Yes, let’s worry about Cowser’s ability to recognize off-speed pitching. But GTFO with the “he’s not clutch and here’s proof” nonsense. 

[sportsfan8703]

Cowser is just a rookie. At least there are some pitches he can hit. What’s Mayo’s excuse on every pitch?   That was for Roy. 

Edited September 5 by sportsfan8703

[baltfan]

5 hours ago, SemperFi said:

Is 10,000 plate appearances enough for you? 

Leverage at bats account for about 10% of at bats so I guess it's really around 1,000 plate appearances-that's a hell of a lot for a tidal pool.  For context there are roughly 60 in MLB history with 10,000 plate appearances.

Best Career Clutch Ratings Since 1972
Player	PA	Career	Per 650 PA
1. Mark Grace	9,290	+13.68	+0.96
2. Toby Harrah	8,337	+13.46	+1.05
3. Jason Kendall	5,958	+12.96	+1.41
4. Kent Hrbek	7,137	+12.83	+1.17
5. Matt Lawton	5,541	+12.10	+1.42
6. Darrell Evans	10,352	+11.81	+0.74
7. Scott Fletcher	5,976	+11.43	+1.24
8. Jeromy Burnitz	6,237	+11.26	+1.17
9. Kirby Puckett	7,831	+11.06	+0.92
10. Harold Baines	11,092	+10.73	+0.63
11. Tony Gwynn	10,232	+9.83	+0.62

So nice to see someone that actually understands what can be gleaned from stats and sabermetrics vs just shaming people with overarching conclusions.  I once had people on this board tell me that Eddie Murray’s clutch sample size was too small to draw any conclusions from.  It can be true that generally people aren’t clutch that we think are, but there are exceptions to the rule.  People will believe that a player might get too fast a heartbeat and too nervous in high leverage and then perform worse. Yet, they refuse to believe that some people might be better able to manage stress and their heartbeat in high leverage so they actually end up performing better than average.