Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, seak05 said:

It seems as if they make the decisions based on things other than just the available stats, especially with Aberdeen. I’m curious if you thought Cowser at the time had earned a promotion from Aberdeen to Bowie? Or Gunnar?

Cowser - .795 OPS at Aberdeen (123 wRC*).  Last 30 days before promotion: .878 OPS.

Henderson - .775 OPS at Aberdeen (wRC+ unknown).  Last 30 days before promotion: .912 OPS.

Bradfield - .708 OPS at Aberdeen (104 OPS+).  Last 30 days before promotion: .673 OPS.

One of these is not like the others.  

Now, I totally take your point that the O’s don’t make their decisions based solely on baseball card stats.   I already said in this thread that baserunning and defense are probably both plus factors, and for all I know there are other metrics driving this decision.  But I still think it’s a move being made for organizational reasons, rather than because Bradfield has shown mastery of Hi A.
 

[glenn__davis]

9 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

If I'm counting correctly there are 30 games left in their season. They are 8 games back of Akron so they have a very outside chance at the playoffs. If he plays well in 2024 he starts 2025 at Bowie with a chance to get to Norfolk by mid season. I'll bet he starts 2025 Spring training with the MLB club and is one of the last to be sent to minor league camp. He may need this challenge to perform.

I think even if he doesn't play well he still starts 2024 in Bowie.  I don't think the O's have ever made a promotion and then sent the player back down the next season (I'm talking real prospects here, not org. guys).

Assuming he's healthy I'd say Bradfield is a near lock to start at Bowie next year.

[clapdiddy]

40 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I think even if he doesn't play well he still starts 2024 in Bowie.  I don't think the O's have ever made a promotion and then sent the player back down the next season (I'm talking real prospects here, not org. guys).

Assuming he's healthy I'd say Bradfield is a near lock to start at Bowie next year.

I would agree with this.   He'll be 23 in Spring Training, and as a #1 pick, after a year in A ball, he should be pushed. 

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Cowser - .795 OPS at Aberdeen (123 wRC*).  Last 30 days before promotion: .878 OPS.

Henderson - .775 OPS at Aberdeen (wRC+ unknown).  Last 30 days before promotion: .912 OPS.

Bradfield - .708 OPS at Aberdeen (104 OPS+).  Last 30 days before promotion: .673 OPS.

One of these is not like the others.  

Now, I totally take your point that the O’s don’t make their decisions based solely on baseball card stats.   I already said in this thread that baserunning and defense are probably both plus factors, and for all I know there are other metrics driving this decision.  But I still think it’s a move being made for organizational reasons, rather than because Bradfield has shown mastery of Hi A.
 

Just think it would be sort of odd to make a move for organizational reasons with your first round pick who is only a year in, you tend to more see that with non prospects. And it doesn’t seem like there are any Delmarva OF who need to get moved up that you would need him to clear the way for

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Just think it would be sort of odd to make a move for organizational reasons with your first round pick who is only a year in, you tend to more see that with non prospects. And it doesn’t seem like there are any Delmarva OF who need to get moved up that you would need him to clear the way for

You’ve got a bunch of 2024 draft picks who are about to start playing.  Someone has to move for them.  

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’ve got a bunch of 2024 draft picks who are about to start playing.  Someone has to move for them.  

Right.  I did see Eric_Birdland tweet that Elis Cuevas was going to Delmarva so maybe one of those guys, and it’s hard to figure who, is moving up.   It does look like Honeycutt, O’Ferrall, Anderson, and Overn will just debut in Aberdeen this week.    The three Aberdeen outfielders got promoted and they demoted IF Angel Tejada back down to Delmarva last week.

[Tony-OH]

Since Elias has taken over, he likes the idea of guys getting a taste of the level they're projected for next season. This allows them to understand some things that they need to work in the offseason and it hopefully allows for them to have a "been there, done that" attitude when they show back up the next year.

As pointed out by Frobby, Bradfield has not exactly been setting the world on fire of late so maybe this is a combination of giving him that taste plus motivating him during a long hot summer. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You’ve got a bunch of 2024 draft picks who are about to start playing.  Someone has to move for them.  

But they just called up 2 other OF from A+ to AA at the same time, and released an OF from AA (Williams). They didn’t need to call up EBJ now to make space at A+.

I view the EBJ promotion - and presumably Fabian going to AAA if that’s the corresponding move - as keeping them on track for their age and experience at their respective levels. At some point you have to keep pushing them until they’re failing, rather than waiting for them dominating.

The offensive bar should be adjusted lower given these guys are plus defensive CFs. They could ultimately be 90 wRC+ platoon bats at the MLB level and still be solid players. I think promoting them a level when they’ve been in the 100-110 wRC+ range at the appropriate age for that level is reasonable. E.g., if they end up in the 100-110 wRC+ range at Norfolk, that’s probably equivalent to 80-90 wRC+ at the MLB level and enough for a MLB promotion.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

But they just called up 2 other OF from A+ to AA at the same time, and released an OF from AA (Williams). They didn’t need to call up EBJ now to make space at A+.

I view the EBJ promotion - and presumably Fabian going to AAA if that’s the corresponding move - as keeping them on track for their age and experience at their respective levels. At some point you have to keep pushing them until they’re failing, rather than waiting for them dominating.

The offensive bar should be adjusted lower given these guys are plus defensive CFs. They could ultimately be 90 wRC+ platoon bats at the MLB level and still be solid players. I think promoting them a level when they’ve been in the 100-110 wRC+ range at the appropriate age for that level is reasonable. E.g., if they end up in the 100-110 wRC+ range at Norfolk, that’s probably equivalent to 80-90 wRC+ at the MLB level and enough for a MLB promotion.

Lots of good points here.  Plus, it keeps Fabian on track to be a RH CF platoon option next July.  It also keeps EBJ on track to be an everyday CF option for OD 2026.  

As we've seen with Mullins this year, we can be ok getting a .650 OPS from our CF if we're also getting GG caliber defense.  

[interloper]

At a certain point, does it make sense to tell EBJ he can stop stealing bags for the rest of the year? I know he probably wants to chase steal records and personal records, but there's nothing else to be gleaned from 60 stolen bases in A+/AA, and the injury risk only increases. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

At a certain point, does it make sense to tell EBJ he can stop stealing bags for the rest of the year? I know he probably wants to chase steal records and personal records, but there's nothing else to be gleaned from 60 stolen bases in A+/AA, and the injury risk only increases. 

Why would you tell a guy to stop practicing (which is basically what the minors is) a key skill to his game? If a guy can't steal bases without getting hurt, how is going to do it at the major league level? 

I don't think minor league "records" mean anything to anyone, including the players. Their goals are to become better players so they can become major league players. Sure, they're going to tell people what they want to hear, but I don't think any player is bragging about some minor league franchise record they set unless that ends up the highlight of their professional career. 

Once a player makes the big leagues, I don't see them talking about the 80 bases they stole in A-ball. 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why would you tell a guy to stop practicing (which is basically what the minors is) a key skill to his game? If a guy can't steal bases without getting hurt, how is going to do it at the major league level? 

I don't think minor league "records" mean anything to anyone, including the players. Their goals are to become better players so they can become major league players. Sure, they're going to tell people what they want to hear, but I don't think any player is bragging about some minor league franchise record they set unless that ends up the highlight of their professional career. 

Once a player makes the big leagues, I don't see them talking about the 80 bases they stole in A-ball. 

I guess my question is (and I'm not even sold on my own theory - just throwing it out there), if it can kind of be thought of like pitchers and their arm health. At a certain point, you shut some pitchers down because the fatigue builds over the course of the year and you want to manage the load, and build on it the following year. 

[Frobby]

I think these players are still trying to win.  And Bradfield steals bases to help his team win, not just for the sake of stealing.   

As to stolen base records, I believe Tim Raines Jr. holds the O’s minor league affiliates record with 81.   Bradfield would need to steal 23 bases in 29 games to top that.  That would be 0.79 steals per game the rest of the way; he averaged 0.73 in Hi A.  So, an uphill battle, but not inconceivable if he actually gets on base at a decent clip in AA.
 

[Frobby]

1 for 3 with a walk and a sac bunt today, with 2 runs and RBI.  He did strike out twice.   Bradfield played LF tonight, with Fabian in CF and Beavers in RF.  It will be interesting to see how the OF lines up as the season progresses.  

Edited August 14 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Does Bradfield have a good enough arm to play a COF spot?