DEPTH or DEATH - Norfolk Tides - Turn/Churn/Burn

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You're just not living in the economic reality or how Elias does business with these players. I mean, as a fan, you can wish for what you want, but that's just not going to happen unless Basallo just has a crazy good year and gets 200+ impact bats in AAA this year. 

I would not put it against reality that he could debut (a few weeks after the season so they can gain an extra year) in 2025, but that would only be a year after Holliday and I think they are going to want to spread out these players financially.

First of all, Basallo is the most likely extension candidate and most likely to sign a “cheap” extension. The Latino player just does that more often than not.

Secondly, while I agree they may play service time games with him in 2025, that is far different than saying he doesn’t play in the majors in 2025. 
 

There is just no way they leave a bat that good in the minors for that long.  They left guys like Westburg and Cowser down longer than they should have but neither have that bat or that upside. The special players, like Gunnar and Holliday have moved pretty quickly. Basallo is much more in that group.

Even Mayo(who will be up by July imo) has been moved quickly but he is a little blocked right now. That ends after this year imo and Basallo is in the same boat. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Adley or the C position in general has anything to do with him debuting in 2024. It will be for DH. Now, we agree that a lot of different things would need to happen there but I wouldn’t rule it out. 

Wait, you think he'll debut at DH in 2024? I mean, sure, if O'Hearn, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby and Mayo all get hurt, sure, he's got a chance.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, you think he'll debut at DH in 2024? I mean, sure, if O'Hearn, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby and Mayo all get hurt, sure, he's got a chance.

No, I said I think the chances of him debuting in 2024 are better than waiting until 2026.  2026 is just no way unless he is hurt or his development stalls.  
 

I don’t think 2024 is very likely but if he is in AAA by say, Mid June (very possible) and tears up AAA and there is a need for a bat in the lineup, I think there is a chance.

Those guys all don’t have to get hurt. But if a few are hurt and/or a few don’t perform or we see a few trades or a combo of all of that, yes I think it’s definitely on the table. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I said I think the chances of him debuting in 2024 are better than waiting until 2026.  2026 is just no way unless he is hurt or his development stalls.  lineup, I think there is a chance.

I don’t think either 2024 or 2026 is very likely.   Gun to my head, 2026 is more likely IMO.   There are just too many guys in the queue to think the O’s would bring up Basallo this year purely as a bat.   

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think either 2024 or 2026 is very likely.   Gun to my head, 2026 is more likely IMO.   There are just too many guys in the queue to think the O’s would bring up Basallo this year purely as a bat.   

2026 just isn’t likely outside of something unforeseen happening.

Agree a lot has to happen/change for 2024 but if he’s a 900-1000 OPS bat over 200-300 at bats in AAA, they may be forced to play him. 
 

I mean, would it be shocking if OHearn gets DFA’ed, if Stowers is traded and someone else is hurt? All of a sudden, 3 spots are opened up and the competition is a lot less.

Again, not predicting it..but it’s more likely than him not getting to the majors until 2026.

Edited April 9 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

2026 just isn’t likely outside of something unforeseen happening.

Agree about has to happen/change for 2024 but if he’s a 900-1000 OPS bat over 200-300 at bats in AAA, they may be forced to play him. 
 

I mean, would it be shocking if OHearn gets DFA’ed, if Stowers is traded and someone else is hurt? All of a sudden, 3 spots are opened up and the competition is a lot less.

Again, not predicting it..but it’s more likely than him not getting to the majors until 2026.

What’s more likely to occur in Baltimore today, a hurricane or an earthquake?   The answer is probably an earthquake, but I’m not going to spend a ton of energy arguing which of two unlikely scenarios is more unlikely.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s more likely to occur in Baltimore today, a hurricane or an earthquake?   The answer is probably an earthquake, but I’m not going to spend a ton of energy arguing which of two unlikely scenarios is more unlikely.   

But yet you are…lol

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What’s more likely to occur in Baltimore today, a hurricane or an earthquake?   The answer is probably an earthquake, but I’m not going to spend a ton of energy arguing which of two unlikely scenarios is more unlikely.   

So let's look at a probable scenario with Basallo. He hits well at Bowie, enough to get promoted in July. He ends up with 180 PAs in AAA and puts up Mayo like numbers in his first taste of AAA. Unless a trade happens, the Orioles will still have (Let's assume Hays, Santander and O'Hearn are not here though if O'Hearn puts up a good season, who knows) Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad, and Norby all needing PAs between RF, LF, and DH. Rutschman still needs to DH some as well. 

Now, could the Orioles decide to give Basallo the Holliday treatment and send him down for a month and then let him debut, sure, that's very possible so 2025 debut is certainly scenario that could happen.

Now, Basallo could also be treated like Mayo though and basically given 500 PAs or so at Bowie which would mean he'd be there most of the season with maybe a taste of AAA by the end of the year. If that happens, 2025 will be at AAA and then he could possibly get the Henderson treatment and get brought up late in 2025 so he retains his rookie status for 2026 when he would make opening day as the backup catcher, DH and occasional 1B. 

Now all of this is predicated on Basallo continuing to breakthrough like he did last year again this year.

He's certainly capable but we still don't know until he does it.

[Sports Guy]

None of Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad or Norby are holding back Basallo. He will leap all of them. 
 

I think Basallo, Mayo, Holliday and Gunnar are going to be your everyday guys. Adley will be as everyday as it gets for a C.

After that, players will fill in around them. 

Where those 4 end up defensively will determine how the team and roster looks going forward.

[Just Regular]

Sigbot's going to get an entire summer of data, and if the demonstrated capability is that Basallo is superior to the Ryans, I hope they don't hesitate to use him.

It is likely Adley's only opportunity to have Burnes and him for a tournament.