DEPTH or DEATH - Norfolk Tides - Turn/Churn/Burn

[CHIP]

90% of the focus in Norfolk is on the "Fab 5" (If I need to list them don't keep reading).  9% on pitching and 1% on those that get thru waivers and are operational depth.

With 2024 being the final year of McCann's existing contract where the O's are paying $4M of the $12M (2023 seemed like $1M of $12M well spent), what is the future.  The seeming simple answer is Samuel Basallo.  But the beginning of 2024 is not equal to the end of 2023.  7-15 in 2023 (0.467 avg/1.167OPS) and 3-14 in 2024 (.214 AVG/.428OPS) and an arm injury prior to ST and going into the regular season.  Hopes are high but should be all be smoking it?

So who is left?  Internal draft picks being developed or outside signings of those not smart enough to not sign up to be a O's back up.

2019 draft was Rutschman 1-1 and Handley 6-1.  Handley appears to be the AAA primary at the start of 2024. Small Sample Size for Handley thru 5 games but injury free, defense looks great, bat path looks well improved.  Has a 1B, 2B, 3B and HR in his 4 hits, walking 18% and 2 HBPs.  So OBP is good as always and SLG is already improved... but who's isn't on the 2024 Tides (Besides Johnson maybe)

2021 draft brought Willems who is still slogging away in A+ having been passed by Basallo.  Willems at times makes me go 'wow' in a good way and other times 'wow' in the not good way.  I think college would have done him some good but passing on $1M signing bonus at 18 is hard and he doesn't turn 21 until June.

2022 draft brought O's fans Silas Ardoin and there was excitement until Basallo moved to AA.

2023 the O's didn't take a C until round 16 with Cole Urman.

So... where have the others come and gone?  Let's focus on AAA Norfolk from the time that Adley first sniffed AAA in 2021 and thru now but going in referse.   Buckle up and enjoy the memories.  2024 is boring in comparison to 21/22/23.

All these players hoping for that 1 catching spot that may open up... 20 different names in AAA over the current (so far) and previous 3 years (4 total)

2024:

Maverick Handley - 5 games

Michael Perez - 2 games (1 taxi Squad assignment)  MLB "Experience"

David Banuelos - 2 games (current taxi squad assignment)

2023:

MLB EXPERIENCED:

Anthony Bemboom:  Backing up in Toledo AAA (DETROIT) to Dingler.  0-10 so far in 2024

Jose Godoy:  Backing up in Lehigh Valley AAA (Phily).  1-7 so far in 2024

Mark Kolozsvary:  Backing up in Worcester AAA (Boston).  0-3 so far in 2024

Meibrys Viloria - after DFA and choosing to avoid Norfolk, went to Angels AAA and then Cleveland MLB for a couple games.  Currently unemployed

NO MLB EXPERIENCE

Maverick Handley - STILL ACTIVE

Michael Mantecon - released in 2023 and not signed 

Ramon Rodriguez - chose FA at end of 2023 after 3 levels of roster fill in.  Now in A+ in Milwaukee system

Tim Susnara - chose FA at end of 2023 and not signed

2022:

MLB EXPERIENCE

Anthony Bemboom - Toledo Mudhens AAA backup in 2024

Cam Gallagher - Career done after 2023

Beau Taylor - Career done after 2023

Jacob Nottingham - Career done after 2023

NO MLB EXPERIENCE

Chris Hudgins - Career Done after 2022

Cody Roberts - Dev List in 2024

Ramon Rodriguez - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers A+ in 2024

Brett Cumberland - Career Done in 2023

Adley Rutschman - 2022 MLB call up.

2021:

MLB EXPERIENCE

Nick Ciuffo - Career done after 2022

Taylor Davis - Careerd done after 2022

Chance Sisco - Career done after 2023

Austin Wynns - After 2021, went to Giants in 2022, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants in 2023 and hanging on in REDS AAA in Louisville.

NO MLB EXPERIENCE

Chris Hudgins - Career done after 2022

Michael Mantecon - Career Done after 2023

Cody Roberts - Career in limbo in 2024 as sitting on Dev List behind Godoy in Phillies AAA

Brett Cumberland - Career done after 2023 (actually 2022 but was on IL for the year)

Adley Rutschman -Got his first taste of AAA, MLB call up in 2022

[Yossarian]

I'm wondering who in the system fills in behind the big 5 after they are promoted or traded?  Things get murky and, frankly, bleak after these guys.   Basallo seems like the only sure thing of the bunch.   Bradfield  doesn’t appear to provide much offense.   Who's next?  Beavers? Cook? Rhodes? Bencosme? Young?  Fabian?  There doesn't seem to be the offensive punch in these guys like the group ahead of them. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

I'm wondering who in the system fills in behind the big 5 after they are promoted or traded?  Things get murky and, frankly, bleak after these guys.   Basallo seems like the only sure thing of the bunch.   Bradfield  doesn’t appear to provide much offense.   Who's next?  Beavers? Cook? Rhodes? Bencosme? Young?  Fabian?  There doesn't seem to be the offensive punch in these guys like the group ahead of them. 

We've got years of team control left for them to dominate at Norfolk.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

@Frobby, that list tells me that being in Norfolk is the last stop of a catchers career 90% of the time...

[Frobby]

I won’t be surprised if the O’s bring back McCann for 2025 if they don’t think Basallo is ready to catch 50-60 games at the major league level.   They could give Handley a shot, but my guess is they’ll look for a veteran, in which case McCann is a tried and true professional who is well respected in the clubhouse.   

[Ohfan67]

32 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

@Frobby, that list tells me that being in Norfolk is the last stop of a catchers career 90% of the time...

Isn’t that pretty much true for all positions? Baseball is cruel. 

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I won’t be surprised if the O’s bring back McCann for 2025 if they don’t think Basallo is ready to catch 50-60 games at the major league level.   They could give Handley a shot, but my guess is they’ll look for a veteran, in which case McCann is a tried and true professional who is well respected in the clubhouse.   

Unless he has an absolute terrible year, I'd imagine he'd be back next year too unless Basallo just tears it up this year and end up with 200+ good PAs in AAA. My guess it's more like 2026 for Basallo leaving 2025 backup available and McCann is a good fit overall in that role.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Unless he has an absolute terrible year, I'd imagine he'd be back next year too unless Basallo just tears it up this year and end up with 200+ good PAs in AAA. My guess it's more like 2026 for Basallo leaving 2025 backup available and McCann is a good fit overall in that role.

Unless he’s hurt or underperforms, no way Basallo isn’t here until 2026. He’s not going to spend the next 2 seasons in AA and AAA.  The bat is just too valuable to do that.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Unless he’s hurt or underperforms, no way Basallo isn’t here until 2026. He’s not going to spend the next 2 seasons in AA and AAA.  The bat is just too valuable to do that.

We'll see. I do think the bat is special but we've also seen the Orioles keep guys in the minors longer than they need to be due to a lack of space on the roster.

Like I said, if he pushes the issue and then tears it up AAA over 200 PAs or so, then he'll be in the conversation. I'm just going by how Elias has done things so far, even with players like Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad to a lesser extent. 

The role for Basallo probably is catch 40 games, DH/1B the other games while Adley is here, but he's going to have to have an impact year once again to get into the 2025 equation.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We'll see. I do think the bat is special but we've also seen the Orioles keep guys in the minors longer than they need to be due to a lack of space on the roster.

Like I said, if he pushes the issue and then tears it up AAA over 200 PAs or so, then he'll be in the conversation. I'm just going by how Elias has done things so far, even with players like Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad to a lesser extent. 

The role for Basallo probably is catch 40 games, DH/1B the other games while Adley is here, but he's going to have to have an impact year once again to get into the 2025 equation.

That has been how they do it but it’s very likely that we see multiple vets gone after this year…maybe as many as 3 or 4, that could impact Basallo.  Not only that, the bat is special enough to where he will leap over some of the younger guys too. 
 

Id be surprised if he’s not in Norfolk by the AS break, which means he’s getting 200 or more PA in AAA.  He’s not going to get 700-900 at bats in AAA...at least not if the bat continues to be at the level we and most around the game expect.

Ill take it one step further..again assuming health, I think there’s a better chance he debuts in 2024 vs 2026.

Edited April 9 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Unless he’s hurt or underperforms, no way Basallo isn’t here until 2026. He’s not going to spend the next 2 seasons in AA and AAA.  The bat is just too valuable to do that.

I think it’s pretty unlikely that he spends all of 2025 in the minors, but I wouldn’t say “no way.”   The O’s clearly have a history of moving players more slowly than some fans want, especially if the player needs work defensively.  And to be clear, 2026 will be Basallo’s age 21 season, so it’s not like he’s growing old on the vine.   

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s pretty unlikely that he spends all of 2025 in the minors, but I wouldn’t say “no way.”   The O’s clearly have a history of moving players more slowly than some fans want, especially if the player needs work defensively.  And to be clear, 2026 will be Basallo’s age 21 season, so it’s not like he’s growing old on the vine.   

Again, the history of moving guys slowly is largely over imo. First of all, see Holliday.

Secondly, the areas where Basallo will play will largely be vacated by vets. 

The special talents haven’t been guys they take a lot of time with outside of Adley and that was more because the team wasn’t good and they didn’t want to waste a year, even though it happened anyway.

Now, could his catching hold him back more than I think he will?  Yes but unlike other players, his bat will be the reason he’s here. If he is hitting at a high level and ends the year at or near the top of the prospect lists, he’s not going to spend 2025 in the minors.

This will be about the bat, not the glove. Is it possible he is a “third catcher” in the majors next year?  Yea it is. I can see that scenario but I can’t see a scenario where they leave a 900 OPS level bat in the minors for 2025.  It’s just not going to happen.

Edited April 9 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That has been how they do it but it’s very likely that we see multiple vets gone after this year…maybe as many as 3 or 4, that could impact Basallo.  Not only that, the bat is special enough to where he will leap over some of the younger guys too. 
 

Id be surprised if he’s not in Norfolk by the AS break, which means he’s getting 200 or more PA in AAA.  He’s not going to get 700-900 at bats in AAA...at least not if the bat continues to be at the level we and most around the game expect.

Ill take it one step further..again assuming health, I think there’s a better chance he debuts in 2024 vs 2026.

There is almost no way he debuts in 2024. The only way he debuts in 2024 is if he's been promoted to AAA, he's tearing it up, the Orioles are in a pennant drive, and Adley gets hurt. THAT's ABOUT IT.

Basallo won't turn 20 until August. I love his bat, but he's got a bone chip thing that's limiting his catching early on so he needs to overcome that as well and most of all, he has only a handful of at bats above A ball. 

Mayo has a similar bat and is stuck in AAA. Elias also likes to spread out his impact players and Basallo is the only one below AAA right now. Unless someone else breaks out this year, the system gets barren of impact bats after Basallo. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, the history of moving guys slowly is largely over imo. First of all, see Holliday.

Secondly, the areas where Basallo will play will largely be vacated by vets. 

The special talents haven’t been guys they take a lot of time with outside of Adley and that was more because the team wasn’t good and they didn’t want to waste a year, even though it happened anyway.

Now, could his catching hold him back more than I think he will?  Yes but unlike other players, his bat will be the reason he’s here. If he is hitting at a high level and ends the year at or near the top of the prospect lists, he’s not going to spend 2025 in the minors.

This will be about the bat, not the glove. Is it possible he is a “third catcher” in the majors next year?  Yea it is. I can see that scenario but I can’t see a scenario where they leave a 900 OPS level bat in the minors for 2025.  It’s just not going to happen.

You're just not living in the economic reality or how Elias does business with these players. I mean, as a fan, you can wish for what you want, but that's just not going to happen unless Basallo just has a crazy good year and gets 200+ impact bats in AAA this year. 

I would not put it against reality that he could debut (a few weeks after the season so they can gain an extra year) in 2025, but that would only be a year after Holliday and I think they are going to want to spread out these players financially.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is almost no way he debuts in 2024. The only way he debuts in 2024 is if he's been promoted to AAA, he's tearing it up, the Orioles are in a pennant drive, and Adley gets hurt. THAT's ABOUT IT.

Basallo won't turn 20 until August. I love his bat, but he's got a bone chip thing that's limiting his catching early on so he needs to overcome that as well and most of all, he has only a handful of at bats above A ball. 

Mayo has a similar bat and is stuck in AAA. Elias also likes to spread out his impact players and Basallo is the only one below AAA right now. Unless someone else breaks out this year, the system gets barren of impact bats after Basallo. 

I don’t think Adley or the C position in general has anything to do with him debuting in 2024. It will be for DH. Now, we agree that a lot of different things would need to happen there but I wouldn’t rule it out.